WD #357: Tecnoglass/Tariffs, Colombia Mining Boom?, Airports & Airlines
Tecnoglass could recover tariff- and FX-hit margins as U.S. blanket tariffs on Colombian goods lift. Colombia’s mining reforms face legal and social hurdles.
Monday, September 7, 2026
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catechwilliams on X
$NX Rapidly declining levered (4x) commodity biz. Q1’25 guide -12% sales, mgmt hoping for 2H’25 recovery. End-mkts deteriorating ($OC -20% Q4 guide, $JELD), customer losses, internal controls issues, integrating a large acq, 0 prior M&A experience. +30x P/E on best case 2025 #s
catechwilliams on X
@StockJabber Thank you. As a read on $PLUS Q3 is tracking in October, $CSCO just reported -23% sales in networking (products account for ~50% of $PLUS revenue) for the Oct quarter-end. Further confirmation that PLUS Q3 is going to be ugly and no turnaround in sight.
catechwilliams on X
$PLUS Accelerating, sales -14% y/y in Q2, noted Q3 not improving yet implied FY guide is for flat sales (downward revisions to come). Margins benefitted from 1-time financing segment gain-on-sale. Still trading at a premium to higher quality industry leader CDW, makes zero sense.
catechwilliams on X
$AS 50x P/E levered retail roll-up w only one decent asset (Arc’teryx). Stagnating in the US, nearly fully-penetrated in China. >$500 jackets didn’t work for $GOOS in Asia. Arc already bigger. Hyper promotional mgmt sent the stock skyward. This is going to be an epic crash.
Little Owl Research on X
*THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE* 1/6 I’ve been slowly building a position in $RAVE since December of 2023 but since their most recent annual report I’ve been buying much more aggressively…
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT New $50M display upgrade award for the Miami Heat arena. Will be a nice boost to current quarter earnings (FQ2'25). https://t.co/sLAFBEerYi
catechwilliams on X
$NX Just acquired peer Tyman. >3x leverage, never done a deal before, commodity business, customers all cutting numbers w deteriorating resi remodel activity ($AMWD yesterday, $MBC, $OC, $JELD). Stock is trading at close to 14x EPS. Seen this movie before. Earnings next week.
catechwilliams on X
$PLUS Earnings on 8/5, expectations & stock disconnected from reality. Suppliers ($CSCO – 50% of product sales), competitors & customers all reporting sharp sales declines. Non-event PR today re a service they’ve been offering for 3 yrs is pumping stock; suggests mgmt is grasping
Investor Letters
All letters- Pendelhaven Asset Management B.V. Q3 2026 DR0 $458MALM $4B
- Protean Funds August 2026 BVNKF $2.6BSUSRF $262M
- Asset Value Investors Ltd July 2026 4549 $503M8011 $231M
- PenderFund Capital Management Ltd. July 2026 NEO $1.1BVNP $1.9B
- Lindsell Train Limited July RMVEY $3.3B
- Kernow Asset Management July 2026 CKNHF $2.1BCMCX $2.5B
- Forager Funds Management July 2026 4733 $4BTTEK $8.9B
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