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Wednesday, September 2, 2026

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@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

$QXO gang anyone have a current cap table, wanted to run some numbers but its hard to keep up with all the issuance/debt offerings.... Pro forma suggests there is around 1.1B shares outstanding? (will that include all the financing to get Topbuild closed (I believe so)? + around $8B in net debt (pro forma) So at $14 a share - that would be roughly $23B EV value? Anyone confirm this or tell me which pieces are wrong (for Kodiak, beacon and Topbuild) Roughly $2B EBITDA off their press release (probably up for debate, rates/economy, then need to look how much synergies might be backed into that) So 4x leveraged (means likely more shares need to get issued to de-risk especially with interest rate risks and transmission to demand) so 11.5x with mote dilution (likely).....getting close but not there yet - still think you need to wait for 10x or < Last and most important question does the math around Beacon change - 15x is meaty for a distributor multiple so unlikely they walk. But with the 45/55 split (is there floor conditions or will TopBuild eat that difference if/when they vote later this month (if not anyone know what the break fee is). Thanks in advance
@ActAccordingly 1 click

PAA Research on X

I call this the "LLOK" trade (Lower Leg of the K). This is a really interesting non-consensus thematic opportunity, dare I call it contrarian (if you're old enough to remember when that was a preferred approach to alpha generation). Investors have been quick to dismiss anything resembling a LLOK trade, but look what's happened in the past few weeks: $DLTR, $CASY, $CBRL, $PENN, $PRKS all massively outperforming in the past month. I'll include my beloved $CAKE in this group. Yes, some of that is factor rotation, but employment tailwinds for this consumer set might be better as a result of data center CAPEX/reindustrialization, and the "sell these names on gas prices" trade couldn't be hackneyed analysis. Finally, follow @TiberiusCapital, he's one of the best investors I know.

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Coupang: 2Q26 Business Recap

Coupang’s product-commerce revenue rose 8% in constant currency as data-leak churn lingered, while promotions and underused logistics…

CPNG $26B
Speedwell Memos 8 clicks
KRYS · short

Krystal Biotech INC

Krystal Biotech is a profitable commercial-stage biotech with an $8.7 billion enterprise value and one FDA-approved topical gene therapy,…

KRYS $10B
Value Investors Club

Core Memory

Airbnb Experiences faces a supply bottleneck from manual approvals, while a farm host raised her price from $15 to $25 after stronger…

ABNB $90B
MBI Deep Dives 9 clicks

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