Emerge Commerce ($ECOM.V) FINS Review
Emerge Commerce's $44 million COVID-era acquisitions produced losses and impairments, while modestly improved Q2 liquidity leaves its balance sheet and capital needs under scrutiny.
Sunday, August 30, 2026
Aug 30 FTRE $1.8B Fortrea Holdings: The Turnaround Is Showing Up In Earnings Before Revenue
Manimala Misra 5 clicks Aug 30 MSFT $3.8T Microsoft: A High-Quality AI Name That Is No Longer Misunderstood
Vinay Utham, CFA 4 clicksFrom X
catechwilliams on X
Sponsor Bain (50% shareholder) will likely be looking to unload shares as we approach the lock-up expiration date later this summer. $KMTS could be a zero.
catechwilliams on X
$KMTS Recent IPO. Makes $20k bras w defib (not a joke). Impractical product w very low efficacy (per clinical trials). Insurance won’t cover. Burning cash, no valuation support. Zoll has 80% share, $KMTS distant #2. 6/1 FDA approved a much better alternative by Element Sciences.
catechwilliams on X
$PRIM $500M new project broke ground. Not deep on the name but this is a pretty massive program for $PRIM and does not appear anyone noticed. "430-megawatt development from Arevon Energy, an offshoot of utility and energy contractor Primoris Services Corp" https://t.co/1egNflZ1X8
catechwilliams on X
$PLUS Accelerating decline: Networking -37% (largest category), Product sales -18%, zero margin/ low quality Professional services now 15% of sales. Cut FY2026 top and bottom-line guide by 7% w further cuts almost certain to come. Trading at 14x 2026 guidance vs peers at 6-8x.
catechwilliams on X
$ACA Levered roll-up (4x levered) hodgepodge of low-quality cap intensive commodity businesses w struggling end-markets (sub-scale aggregates, building products, ag). Negative organic growth w unrealistic guidance. Forced to sell an asset to avoid covenant breach. 30x P/E
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT Just won the massive jumbotron project for the new Titans stadium. Estimated to be $180M. Will be the largest set of displays in the NFL. Bills, Browns stadiums to be announced soon. Wouldn’t be surprised if Mitsubishi acquires them given interest in the category.
Little Owl Research on X
With contract disputes and litigation set to surge, I believe Burford is well positioned to benefit. Struggling firms will increasingly look to shore up capital—Many cannot afford to wait 2+ years to see the case through. $BUR
Little Owl Research on X
Burford’s value prop is high to these firms, and the significant supply spike puts them in a fantastic position to capitalize on the demand for cash. Additionally settlement with Argentine government seems highly likely at this point. Long $BUR
Investor Letters
All letters- Palm Harbour Capital July 2026 064850 $131M082920 $890M
- Protean Funds July 2026 DVYSR $103MEVGGF $17B
- Alluvial Capital Management Second Quarter 2026 ZEG $5BDGXX $372M
- Sequoia Fund First Half of 2026
- Hayden Capital Q2 2026 AMZN $2.8TGOOGL $4.1T
- Royce Investment Partners Year-to-Date Through 6/30/26 AAP $2.6BBRSL $2B
- Maran Capital Management second quarter SPCX
- Intrepid Capital 2Q 2026
PAHC 2026-08-30 Phibro Animal Health: Zoetis Integrated And Better Cash Flow Ahead
Myriam Alvarez 5 clicks
Veeva 2Q’26: “SaaSpocalypse” Cancelled
Veeva beat its $905 million revenue guide with $928 million, up 17.6%, while subscription growth accelerated and GAAP EBIT margin reached…
Microsoft ($MSFT) - Deep Dive
Microsoft’s AI data-center buildout lifted annual CapEx from $5.5 billion in FY2014 to $115.9 billion in FY2026, resetting free-cash-flow…
NTG Clarity Networks ($NCI.V) FINS Review
NTG Clarity’s $18.6M of Q2 service revenue sat in contract assets, while $4.6M cash burn cut cash to $2.85M and raises liquidity concerns.
Meta Buys Away its Distraction at Minimal Cost
Meta’s $18 billion teen-addiction settlement makes $5.3 billion contingent on YouTube and TikTok adopting matching restrictions, while…
Making sense of Sandisk’s long-term financial model
Sandisk’s FY28-FY30 model relies on long-term NAND agreements holding near-80% gross-margin floors despite pricing 26-28% below current…
Late August 2026 Random Ramblings
Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven…
The Verra Sneerer (NASDAQ:VRRM)
Verra Mobility renewed Hertz tolling management for five years. AutoKinex lets rental customers buy tolling, fuel and protection products…
Nvidia Climbing the Wall of Worries
Nvidia guided FY2028 revenue toward $700 billion, roughly 70% growth, while supply constraints and neocloud demand face concerns over…
Domo (Arigato), for this potential multi-bagger options trade
Domo’s $400 million sale to Progress would leave a cash-rich public shell with $900 million of NOLs; January 2028 $5 calls cost 22 cents.
DMLP 2026-08-30 Dorchester Minerals: Still Attractive - Despite Oil Price Headwinds
IWA Research 4 clicks SBAC 2026-08-29 SBA Communications Corporation: Fast-Growing Dividend, Undervalued
Philip Wang 4 clicks BE 2026-08-29 Bloom Energy: 5 Links That Cannot Break
Valuation Rewind 5 clicks
Nvidia’s Long-Term Margin Question
Nvidia faces questions over the durability of its long-term profit margins ahead of earnings.
[scuttleslops] AI Data Center Economics, ADI, INTU, IDXX
AWS AI campuses cost $40–$45 billion per gigawatt, with Trainium 3 expected to lift compute per megawatt and improve infrastructure returns.
Big Tech Off-Balance Sheet Concerns
Big Tech’s $3 trillion AI commitments are disclosed and largely long-dated, with nearly 60% of Amazon’s $650 billion commitments falling…
Atlas Engineered Products ($AEP.V) FINS Review
Atlas Engineered Products reported Q2 revenue up 19% to $16.2 million, but ended cashless on its credit line as inventory rose 47% and…
Stripe’s “Singularity” and the Divergence from Adyen
Stripe’s net revenue rose 41% in 1H 2026 versus Adyen’s 21% FX-adjusted growth, fueled by AI-native startups and acquisitions including…
The Junk (Mail) Merger Arb
Star Equity’s $5 per-share Harte-Hanks acquisition offers $2.50 cash plus 0.25 STRRP per share after proration, against a $2 break price.
$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners
El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…
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