Friday, August 28, 2026
From X
catechwilliams on X
$CVGW In MRQ benefited from temp avocado price spike and 1-time F/X add-back. Volumes have been declining LDD for the last 3Qs ($CMG shifting suppliers). DOJ investigation continues. Prices & earnings reverting lower. Commodity distributor trading at 30x P/E is not sustainable.
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT New $50M display upgrade award for the Miami Heat arena. Will be a nice boost to current quarter earnings (FQ2'25). https://t.co/sLAFBEerYi
catechwilliams on X
$NX Just acquired peer Tyman. >3x leverage, never done a deal before, commodity business, customers all cutting numbers w deteriorating resi remodel activity ($AMWD yesterday, $MBC, $OC, $JELD). Stock is trading at close to 14x EPS. Seen this movie before. Earnings next week.
catechwilliams on X
$CVGW RFG sale is delayed again (latest 10-Q stated will close end of July). This is the 3rd delay. Now unlikely to close at all. Will require a restatement of the last 2 quarters, revealing much lower earnings (likely negative EPS, negative FCF). https://t.co/lVsZZT37Cf
catechwilliams on X
$CVGW USDA crackdown on Mexican avocado corruption significantly erroding import vols (region where $CVGW sources all product). S. America taking share at accelerating rate as customers (ie. $CMG, grocers) shift suppliers. $CVGW sales vol -13% MRQ. Current Q could be a disaster. https://t.co/KJgK8fXbM4
catechwilliams on X
$PLUS Earnings on 8/5, expectations & stock disconnected from reality. Suppliers ($CSCO – 50% of product sales), competitors & customers all reporting sharp sales declines. Non-event PR today re a service they’ve been offering for 3 yrs is pumping stock; suggests mgmt is grasping
catechwilliams on X
@Mike10947310 $CVGW Sources >90% of its avocados from Michoacan, MX. $CMG purchases ~10% of tot US avocados. Its latest ESG report noted “diversifying away from Mexican suppliers.” This latest drama down there will almost certainly accelerate sourcing away from $CVGW, etc.
catechwilliams on X
$CVGW Bloomberg: USDA halting avocado shipments from Michoacan, Mexico following threats to inspection officers. $CVGW Sources >90% of its avocado from Michoacan. Potentially related to FCPA investigation given agencies involved. https://t.co/j15wm3bbIa
Investor Letters
All letters- Palm Harbour Capital July 2026 064850 $136M082920 $962M
- Protean Funds July 2026 DVYSR $105MEVGGF $17B
- Hayden Capital Q2 2026 AMZN $2.8TGOOGL $4.2T
- Royce Investment Partners Year-to-Date Through 6/30/26 AAP $2.6BBRSL $2.1B
- Intrepid Capital 2Q26 GOOGL $4.2T
- Polaris Capital Management Second Quarter 2026 ENI $80BHDIH
- First Eagle Investments second quarter 2026 032830 $45BBABA $285B
- Oakmark Funds 2Q 2026 META $1.5TORCL $430B
SK Hynix: Higher Revenue Than Micron, Cheaper Than Micron (Initiating Buy)
Making sense of Sandisk’s long-term financial model
Sandisk’s FY28-FY30 model relies on long-term NAND agreements holding near-80% gross-margin floors despite pricing 26-28% below current…
Late August 2026 Random Ramblings
Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven…
The Verra Sneerer (NASDAQ:VRRM)
Verra Mobility renewed Hertz tolling management for five years. AutoKinex lets rental customers buy tolling, fuel and protection products…
Nvidia Climbing the Wall of Worries
Nvidia guided FY2028 revenue toward $700 billion, roughly 70% growth, while supply constraints and neocloud demand face concerns over…
Domo (Arigato), for this potential multi-bagger options trade
Domo’s $400 million sale to Progress would leave a cash-rich public shell with $900 million of NOLs; January 2028 $5 calls cost 22 cents.
Nvidia’s Long-Term Margin Question
Nvidia faces questions over the durability of its long-term profit margins ahead of earnings.
[scuttleslops] AI Data Center Economics, ADI, INTU, IDXX
AWS AI campuses cost $40–$45 billion per gigawatt, with Trainium 3 expected to lift compute per megawatt and improve infrastructure returns.
$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners
El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…
CCC Is in the Middle of the Wreckage
CCC, the dominant auto physical-damage claims estimator, connects 27 of the top 30 insurers with 31,000 repair shops as takeout rumors…
After A Decade Of Underperformance, Comcast Is Finally Ready To Rebound
HEICO: A Fundamentals Superstar But Also An Informational Enigma; Staying At 'Hold'
Amprius: A Better Entry Point After A 50%+ Decline (Rating Upgrade)
Vse CORP
VSE Corp trades at $185, with a stated $246 fair value and 2027 estimated EV/EBITDA of 15x.
Hawkins INC
Hawkins (HWKN) faces margin pressure as cost increases and municipal budget constraints weigh on its water-chemical distribution business.
Photronics INC
Biohaven: Sale Of Opakalim Rights To SK Biopharmaceuticals Makes Sense On Many Levels
Late August 2026 Random Ramblings
Higher rates threaten equity multiples and AI data-center economics, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven capital…
ACI Worldwide: An Undercovered Payments Compounder Getting Better
ArcelorMittal: Regionalization Is Creating A Structurally Better Steel Company
Publications we follow
Every publication on this site, hand-picked.
- MBI Deep Dives
- Yet Another Value Blog
- Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter
- Seeking Alpha
- Yet Another Value Podcast
- scuttleblurb
- Bearhold Research
- Bristlemoon Capital
- The Oak Bloke
- Triple S Special Situations Investing
- Hunterbrook
- The Monetary Matters Network
- Steve Eisman
- 310 Value’s Newsletter
- The Value Road
- Capital Employed
- Speedwell Memos
- The Mikro Kap
- Treasure Hunting
- Clark Street Value
- Cluseau Research
- Value Investors Club
- John Hempton's Newsletter
- Undervalued Shares
- smallvalue.
- Maius Partners
- Multibagger Monitor
- Altay Capital - Mostly Value Investing
- Citrini Research
- Odds on Open
- Sunday's Idea Brunch
X accounts we follow
Every account on this site, hand-picked.
- Mike
- Broken Moats
- Clark Square Capital
- SG
- Maj Soueidan
- BDC
- Chris Camillo
- Timyan Bank Alert
- Prepared Remarks
- Raging Capital Ventures
- Lee Roach
- Ian Bezek
- AltayCap
- mavix
- ⚽️📡
- Nat Stewart
- JabroniCoin.USD
- marginofdanger
- David Orr
- PAA Research
- Farmer
- Charles Frischer
- Connor Haley
- junkbondinvestor
- Little Owl Research
- Tim Eriksen
- ToffCap
- Fierce_beast
- Psyop Capital
- Laughing Water Capital
- catechwilliams
- Porter Collins
- Rusholme Capital
- Sahil Khetpal
Topics
Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.
