Friday, August 28, 2026

Late August 2026 Random Ramblings

Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven capital allocation.

UWMC $2BCCOI $476M

Yet Another Value Podcast Aug 27 13 clicks

Aug 27 VRRM $536M

The Verra Sneerer (NASDAQ:VRRM)

The Oak Bloke 6 clicks

Aug 27 PRGS $1.9B

Domo (Arigato), for this potential multi-bagger options trade

Triple S Special Situations Investing 3 clicks

From X

@BlueDuckCap Aug 26 1 click

BDC on X

$SNAP sub model pivot is underappreciated. Evan said subs can reach 7-12% of MAU, per their own case study analysis on paid penetration. At 971mn MAU as of Q2, that means 68mn subs at 7% penetration vs the current 3.3%. At the Q2 ARPU runrate, that implies just under $3B in annual revenue and suggests that there remains considerable runway on the subscription side vs the $1.2B sub revenue runrate in Q2.

@ActAccordingly Aug 26 1 click

PAA Research on X

Back to back days with 30%+ moves in the retail space. Today it's $ANF with a 30%+ move higher. This wasn't supposed to happen in the age of "alt data" and credit card panels. Instead, single stock vol in the retail space is higher than ever. Market structure is a big part of it (See my 5 "P"s" rubric). However, in this case you can't help but wonder how alt data is driving EXTREME levels of group think in individual stocks. One thing is certain, $ANF is a trader's delight, if you can get it right....

@BlueDuckCap Aug 25 2 clicks

BDC on X

From $SNAP Q2 shareholder letter: In scheme of things, the stock barely budged. How much would $META or $AMZN be up if Zuck/Jassy had said the same exact thing? Hint: they would be up many multiples of $SNAP's entire market cap. https://t.co/8QeDQq1LFy

@TheBenSchmark Aug 25

JabroniCoin.USD on X

UBS on $CENX generating nearly $1 bn in 2026 FCF (v ~$800m consensus) Post this week, that Midwest premium looks solid for 2026… so that volume ramp should translate into higher numbers in Q3 and Q4 https://t.co/dhrEiBFWFf

@mavix_leon Aug 25 2 clicks

mavix on X

Will be interesting to finally see the first look of the new Shelly Camera! $SLYG https://t.co/dWIQfPA150

@cfrischer1 Aug 25

Charles Frischer on X

@JohnTwomey16 I think the podcast speaks for itself. The FCC is trying to light all available spectrum. Likely includes the 900 MHz owned by $NN.

@cfrischer1 Aug 24

Charles Frischer on X

$NN. This podcast is must listening. Doesn’t mention NN by name, but amazing insights into FCC strategy under Chairman Carr. This Week: The FCC's Spectrum Pipeline with Arpan Sura - The Week with Roger | Podcast on Spotify https://t.co/tSebqMRetN

@ActAccordingly Aug 24

PAA Research on X

@herbgreenberg @ParagonIntelNYC As it turns out we've had a short call out on $LOPE since the start of the year...

TPC 2026-08-27

Tutor Perini: Q2 2026 Made My Strong Buy Case Stronger

Tutor Perini’s Q2 revenue rose 19% to $1.64 billion as higher-margin megaprojects lifted construction income 54%, prompting higher 2026 EPS…

TPC $4.5B

The Curious Analyst Aug 27

$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners

El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…

ELALF $3.2B

Yet Another Value Podcast Aug 20 12 clicks

CCC Is in the Middle of the Wreckage

CCC, the dominant auto physical-damage claims estimator, connects 27 of the top 30 insurers with 31,000 repair shops as takeout rumors…

CCC $3.9B

scuttleblurb Aug 20 17 clicks

Aloe Aloe Aloe what 'ave VERRA then?

Verra Mobility's new seven-year Avis agreement replaces a customer worth over 10% of revenue on materially worse economics, exposing…

VRRM $536M

The Oak Bloke Aug 20 13 clicks

SA 2026-08-20

Seabridge Gold: Fairly Valued Now But Big Upside

Seabridge Gold's KSM gold-copper project could re-rate on a joint venture, 2027 feasibility study and infrastructure progress, with gold…

SA $3.3B

Redfern Research Aug 20

NCLH or her grandma Saga?

Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028…

NCLH $6.5B

The Oak Bloke Aug 19 13 clicks

PGY 2026-08-19

Pagaya Technologies: A Fast-Growing Industry Disruptor Trading At A P/E Of 6.6x

Pagaya Technologies reported Q2 2026 network volume of $3.54 billion, 19% revenue growth and 99% adjusted net-income growth, while trading…

PGY $1.7B

Akim Guerreiro Aug 19

Jumia

Jumia’s January 2028 $7/$15 call spread risks $1.15 for up to $6.85 if cost cuts and marketplace growth deliver adjusted EBITDA and…

JMIA $938M

Triple S Special Situations Investing Aug 18 13 clicks

Why DoorDash’s Autonomous Strategy Beats Uber’s Hodgepodge

DoorDash’s integrated autonomous-delivery strategy contrasts with Uber’s 2026 divestment of Serve Robotics, its former delivery-robot…

SERV $370M

MBI Deep Dives Aug 17 4 clicks

Stock Trade Compilation Diez

E.W. Scripps, Team Internet, Monro, doValue and Inter & Co feature as special-situation trades involving mergers, asset sales, leverage and…

MNRO $383M

Triple S Special Situations Investing Aug 17 9 clicks

VSEC · long

Vse CORP

VSE Corp trades at $185, with a stated $246 fair value and 2027 estimated EV/EBITDA of 15x.

VSEC $5.1B

Value Investors Club May 30 1 click

BHVN 2026-08-27

Biohaven: Sale Of Opakalim Rights To SK Biopharmaceuticals Makes Sense On Many Levels

Biohaven’s $795 million global opakalim licensing deal with SK Biopharmaceuticals boosts cash, lowers R&D spending and extends its funding…

BHVN $2.1B

Edmund Ingham Aug 27 1 click

$DNOW: the boring distributor that could double on 2029 numbers | Firebird Management

DNOW’s MRC Global merger targets $75 million of synergies, with a 2029 bull case of $30 to $32 per share driven by cash flow and rerating.

DNOW $2.8B

Yet Another Value Podcast Aug 14 9 clicks

Are Department Stores Finally Shortable?

Macy’s and Kohl’s face renewed short cases as their recent reratings ignore fading store-refresh gains, credit-card earnings exposure and…

M $5.8BKSS $1.9B

Bristlemoon Capital Aug 13 9 clicks

Entravision Q2 Notes

Entravision’s ATS revenue rose 230% to $182.8 million in Q2, but shares fell from above $14 to about $8 after management forecast…

EVC $727M

The Value Road Aug 11 13 clicks

$UWMC lost $600m hedging a deal they'd already lost

UWMC booked a roughly $600 million Q2 hedging loss tied to TWO months after the deal collapsed, contributing to an expensive capital raise.

UWMC $2BTWO $1.3B

Yet Another Value Blog Aug 11 11 clicks

40 Stock Pitches (3rd-9th August)

Navient trades near 40% of tangible book as Gator Financial Partners argues private student-loan growth and restructuring can reverse its…

NAVI $902M

Capital Employed Aug 10 9 clicks

$HIMS: Paul Cerro wouldn't trust the CEO to walk his dog. He's still long. Why? | Cedar Grove

Hims & Hers investor Paul Cerro is long again on lab and patient data driving retention and LTV, despite management concerns, GLP-1…

HIMS $7.1B

Yet Another Value Podcast Aug 7 9 clicks

DEC-laration of independence

Diversified Energy cut $233 million of debt in 1H26, repurchased $93 million of stock and sold $273 million of land and assets while…

DEC $972M

The Oak Bloke Aug 6 7 clicks

Perimeter Solutions: 2Q26 Business Recap

Perimeter Solutions’ 2Q26 revenue rose 31%, while operating income fell 11% as USDA pricing and DLA delivery timing hurt Fire Safety; it…

PRM $5.3B

Speedwell Memos Aug 5 9 clicks

BDC on X

PAA Research on X

BDC on X

JabroniCoin.USD on X

mavix on X

Charles Frischer on X

Charles Frischer on X

PAA Research on X

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