Thursday, August 27, 2026

Late August 2026 Random Ramblings

Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven capital allocation.

UWMC $2.3BCCOI $495M

Yet Another Value Podcast Aug 27 14 clicks

Aug 27 VRRM $696M

The Verra Sneerer (NASDAQ:VRRM)

The Oak Bloke 8 clicks

Aug 27 NVDA $5.2T

Nvidia Climbing the Wall of Worries

MBI Deep Dives 7 clicks

From X

@BlueDuckCap Jul 23

BDC on X

So is $GOOGL going to tap their ATM now? Or wait for it to go lower?

@ActAccordingly Jul 23 1 click

PAA Research on X

To me, $GOOG faces a "red queen scenario" or a "pyrrhic victory". For the moment, it appears I'm not the only one that shares that sentiment. 13% paid click growth was solid in 2Q26, but CPC slowed to 3% YOY. Not a huge deal, but warrants close attention. I still think we see massive deceleration on paid clicks. Then what?

@BlueDuckCap Jul 23

BDC on X

Ok so $GOOGL beat on every KPI that they told you mattered for the print. And yet the stock is off 6% and nuking the market with it. This is bad for the AI cycle for two reasons: 1. Credit markets were already revolting vs hyperscalers capex spend. 2. Now if equity markets revolt too - where does the funding come from? Either CEO's like Sundar who get paid 10s of millions / year need to make an actual attempt to quantify expected CASH ROIC to the market OR markets might just say they've had enough...we see the $ out the door and have no line of sight as to when it comes back in. We selling. @ajassy take note.

@TimyanBankAlert Jul 23 1 click

Timyan Bank Alert on X

$FCNCA $SBNC HT ⁦@bankinvesting⁩ https://t.co/3nOgjdlsG8

@irbezek Jul 23

Ian Bezek on X

@SowingAlphaSeed @orrdavid Number 3 is an excellent point. I own a bunch of zero duration bonds, rather than TIPS. Aiming for maximum price appreciation during the next recession/return to ZIRP. $EDV (or $TLT) was much more monetizable than long-term TIPS in March 2020 when you needed liquidity most. https://t.co/RHEWLObo4J

@TimyanBankAlert Jul 22 1 click

Timyan Bank Alert on X

$NRIM- Northrim BanCorp, Inc. Signs Definitive Agreement to Acquire $PBCO Financial Corporation https://t.co/XtscRHtpqE

@BlueDuckCap Jul 22

BDC on X

@LogicalThesis Market might sell $AMZN some here. But the distinction that should be made is that a massive amount of $GOOGL's capex is funding internal compute needs. The majority of AMZN's capex is for external.

@BrokenMoats Jul 22

Broken Moats on X

$ROL ugly quarter, hate when the call is the following day (same with $MEDP) but as much as Ive beat it up on valuation over the past few years it finally starts to enter the interesting zone under $35. demographic trends to TX and the SE favor increased pest control over time, recurring service, start pushing 15-18x in the low 30s Research considerations - would be curious to see how increased PE movement into the space in different markets continues to impact density and lead generation and pricing as well as m&a opportunities before pulling the trigger here. Not a luxury but an essential service in my neck of the woods.

Investor Letters

All letters

BHVN 2026-08-27

Biohaven: Sale Of Opakalim Rights To SK Biopharmaceuticals Makes Sense On Many Levels

BHVN $2.2B

Edmund Ingham Aug 27 5 clicks

KSTR 2026-08-27

KSTR: Exposure To China's Chips And Potential Diversifier For SOXX

KSTR

Chetan Woodun Aug 27 4 clicks

ACIW 2026-08-27

ACI Worldwide: An Undercovered Payments Compounder Getting Better

ACIW $5.4B

SiliconBytes Insights Aug 27 5 clicks

Domo (Arigato), for this potential multi-bagger options trade

Domo’s $400 million sale to Progress would leave a cash-rich public shell with $900 million of NOLs; January 2028 $5 calls cost 22 cents.

DOMO $184MPRGS $2.1B

Triple S Special Situations Investing Aug 27 7 clicks

Nvidia’s Long-Term Margin Question

Nvidia faces questions over the durability of its long-term profit margins ahead of earnings.

NVDA $5.2T

MBI Deep Dives Aug 26 8 clicks

AMZN 2026-08-26

[scuttleslops] AI Data Center Economics, ADI, INTU, IDXX

AWS AI campuses cost $40–$45 billion per gigawatt, with Trainium 3 expected to lift compute per megawatt and improve infrastructure returns.

AMZN $2.8T

scuttleblurb Aug 26 9 clicks

Big Tech Off-Balance Sheet Concerns

Big Tech’s $3 trillion AI commitments are disclosed and largely long-dated, with nearly 60% of Amazon’s $650 billion commitments falling…

AMZN $2.8T

MBI Deep Dives Aug 25 9 clicks

APEUF 2026-08-25

Atlas Engineered Products ($AEP.V) FINS Review

Atlas Engineered Products reported Q2 revenue up 19% to $16.2 million, but ended cashless on its credit line as inventory rose 47% and…

APEUF $34M

Wolf's Substack Aug 25 18 clicks

The Junk (Mail) Merger Arb

Star Equity’s $5 per-share Harte-Hanks acquisition offers $2.50 cash plus 0.25 STRRP per share after proration, against a $2 break price.

STRR $37MHHS $31M

Triple S Special Situations Investing Aug 24 11 clicks

$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners

El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…

ELALF $3.4B

Yet Another Value Podcast Aug 20 16 clicks

Late August 2026 Random Ramblings

Higher rates threaten equity multiples and AI data-center economics, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven capital…

UWMC $2.3BCCOI $495M

Yet Another Value Blog Aug 27 2 clicks

MT 2026-08-27

ArcelorMittal: Regionalization Is Creating A Structurally Better Steel Company

MT $56B

Capital Connoisseur Aug 27 3 clicks

VRT 2026-08-27

Vertiv: AI's Physical Bottleneck Is Expanding Its Value Per Megawatt

VRT $102B

LL Insights Aug 27 3 clicks

FUFU 2026-08-27

BitFuFu: A $93 Million Liability No One Can Explain

FUFU $238M

Dorine Cherop Aug 27 1 click

GM 2026-08-27

General Motors: The Billion Mile Moat

GM $76B

Muhammad Cheema Aug 27 3 clicks

KGC 2026-08-27

Kinross Gold: The Buy Case Is Margin, Not Growth

KGC $39B

The Bullionaire Aug 27 4 clicks

TPC 2026-08-27

Tutor Perini: Q2 2026 Made My Strong Buy Case Stronger

TPC $4.6B

The Curious Analyst Aug 27 4 clicks

LGCY · long 2026-05-29

Legacy Education

Legacy Education operates six California campuses offering post-secondary nursing, physician assistant and surgical education.

LGCY $134M

Value Investors Club May 29 1 click

RGLD · long 2026-05-29

Royal Gold INC

Royal Gold, a $19 billion precious-metals royalty and streaming company, benefits from mine production without operating mines directly.

RGLD $22B

Value Investors Club May 29 1 click

CC · long 2026-05-29

the chemours inc.

Chemours (CC) is presented as a long investment in its three-segment specialty chemicals business.

CC $2.4B

Value Investors Club May 29 1 click

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Thursday, August 27, 2026

BDC on X

PAA Research on X

BDC on X

Timyan Bank Alert on X

Ian Bezek on X

Timyan Bank Alert on X

BDC on X

Broken Moats on X

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