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Thursday, August 27, 2026

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Late August 2026 Random Ramblings

Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven capital allocation.

UWMC $2BCCOI $476M
Yet Another Value Podcast 13 clicks

From X

@ActAccordingly 1 click

PAA Research on X

Big gap higher pre-mkt for $W. Furniture names in general have been ripping the past 3-months. QUIETLY. 4+ years of brutal housing market headwinds and these businesses have been grinding away, generating cash, buying back stock, preserving margins. Easy comps + the potential of an upturn in housing velocity make it a good recipe for longs with valuations that remain notably cheap relative to mid-cycle EBITDA. Look at some of these 3-month returns: $BOBS: 64.8% $W: 35.8% $BSET: 34.1% $WSM: 33.2% $HOFT: 21.4% $LZB: 18.5% $ETD 12.2% There's plenty of juice in the group with a sustained upturn in home furnishings spend after the post-COVID19 crash. $WSM is on our Buyback Outliers list. I own $BSET, $ETD, $BBBY
@orrdavid 1 click

David Orr on X

It's not THAT clear Citadel made a good bet. Probably good. But it could be losing. Three buckets: 1. Citadel brand buying the block creates a lot of buyers short term, letting them get out. A counter to this is: how many other funds/players blew up at the same time, with how much more stock still needing to be sold at any price by brokers? And redemptions. 2. The $SOXX drop was mostly just technical and will keep going up again after this. In which case Citadel will kill it. 3. The $SOXX drop was on real fundamentals, like the market knows the trade is over. In that case, Citadel stands to get slaughtered if the move continues down. Nobody really knows. Memory seems very questionable, though. I follow $TSM well and that seems merely fairly priced here, not a screamin' buy. $NVDA seems hard today, with all this chatter of competing chips / AI getting so powerful the software moat seems like probable junk in a few years.

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Core Memory

Airbnb Experiences faces a supply bottleneck from manual approvals, while a farm host raised her price from $15 to $25 after stronger…

ABNB $90B
MBI Deep Dives 9 clicks

NCLH or her grandma Saga?

Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028…

NCLH $6.5B
The Oak Bloke 13 clicks
RGLD · long

Royal Gold INC

Royal Gold, a $19 billion precious-metals royalty and streaming company, benefits from mine production without operating mines directly.

RGLD $22B
Value Investors Club

Walmart’s Evolution

Walmart says Medicare Maximum Fair Price rules will cut FY27 US comps by 125 basis points, while pharmacy margins and prescription volumes…

PYPL $45B
MBI Deep Dives 4 clicks

Airbnb Model Update (2026)

Airbnb shares have risen about 50% since October 2025, prompting a revised 2026 model and return assumptions at the current price.

ABNB $90B
MBI Deep Dives 4 clicks

Jumia

Jumia’s January 2028 $7/$15 call spread risks $1.15 for up to $6.85 if cost cuts and marketplace growth deliver adjusted EBITDA and…

JMIA $938M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 13 clicks

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