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Thursday, August 27, 2026

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Late August 2026 Random Ramblings

Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven capital allocation.

UWMC $2BCCOI $476M
Yet Another Value Podcast 13 clicks

From X

@junkbondinvest

junkbondinvestor on X

Whirlpool's credit curve is interesting because the belly of the curve is much wider than the long end. Typically, the further out a maturity is, the higher the credit spread required to compensate you for the additional risk. Here, the dollar price of the long bonds is so low, they carry less downside per dollar to the same recovery, plus all the torque to any good outcome (asset sales, M&A, turnaround, etc). Investors are paying a premium for that $WHR
@orrdavid 3 clicks

David Orr on X

I privately told a few fund managers I respect these investing themes/theses privately: "AI is going to drive far more medical/biotech research in pursuit of age reversal technologies than we had before. In fact, at least a couple of these are reasonably likely to be the most valuable companies on the planet in 10-20 years." and related, "Many of the old medical research companies are dinosaurs, since their tech will not keep up with the new age of AI driven medical research." I told them this at the start of 2025, and for example mentioned they avoid shorting $ARKG type stocks. I could tell they thought I was completely retarded, out of my mind, etc. A couple thoughts: 1. I bet those people don't think the idea is stupid at all today. and 2. Having a thesis that seems insane but is often wrong is *awesome*. It's a heads you win, tails you lose nothing situation. Besides $MEDP long, I didn't really know how to play the idea other than avoiding a bunch of shorts. These are theses I still very much believe today, and still today I don't see people talking about them.

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Core Memory

Airbnb Experiences faces a supply bottleneck from manual approvals, while a farm host raised her price from $15 to $25 after stronger…

ABNB $90B
MBI Deep Dives 9 clicks

NCLH or her grandma Saga?

Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028…

NCLH $6.5B
The Oak Bloke 13 clicks
RGLD · long

Royal Gold INC

Royal Gold, a $19 billion precious-metals royalty and streaming company, benefits from mine production without operating mines directly.

RGLD $22B
Value Investors Club

Walmart’s Evolution

Walmart says Medicare Maximum Fair Price rules will cut FY27 US comps by 125 basis points, while pharmacy margins and prescription volumes…

PYPL $45B
MBI Deep Dives 4 clicks

Airbnb Model Update (2026)

Airbnb shares have risen about 50% since October 2025, prompting a revised 2026 model and return assumptions at the current price.

ABNB $90B
MBI Deep Dives 4 clicks

Jumia

Jumia’s January 2028 $7/$15 call spread risks $1.15 for up to $6.85 if cost cuts and marketplace growth deliver adjusted EBITDA and…

JMIA $938M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 13 clicks

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