Late August 2026 Random Ramblings
Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven capital allocation.
Thursday, August 27, 2026
Back to today 
From X
Chris Camillo on X
@LownTrevor if you believe that’s the consensus then $TTWO not for you
Chris Camillo on X
Please let $TTWO open flat tomorrow because tonight’s GTA VI reaction is “priced in” test me
Timyan Bank Alert on X
Mutual Federal Bancorp, $MFDB Announces Adoption of Plan of Conversion and Reorganization to Undertake Second Step ... https://t.co/BkyVGHPxWU
Chris Camillo on X
We currently have only one real datapoint to work off from today’s gameplay reveal: depth of player interest in the gameplay. The better the gameplay, the greater the long-term monetization opportunity for $TTWO. That’s the variable I don’t think is priced in yet, and it’s what gives this trade meaningful upside and downside.
Chris Camillo on X
Ran dozens of social arb probability scenarios for how the world would react to today’s GTA VI gameplay reveal. This is playing out like a top 5% outcome. Did not expect this. Feels like the market came into today anchored to last week’s hacker leaks and primed for disappointment. It may take a minute to process what just happened. $TTWO
Maj Soueidan on X
What's the one stock you hope falls due to a "blip" quarter that is likely temporary due to unusual circumstances or investor misinterpretation? Two of my wishes already came true with $SIF and $KLNG. Could throw $FSI into the mix. Next on this early Christmas wish list? $PPIH
Maj Soueidan on X
@StableBread Nice summary. Thanks for sharing. I’m somewhat excited about the new CEO hire from the competitor, $CECO, who has actually been winning data center contracts.
Maj Soueidan on X
Anyone have a direct line to $MG, call them now. We have a code red!!! https://t.co/zgvG6Ik5vi
Investor Letters
All letters- Palm Harbour Capital July 2026 064850 $143M082920 $946M
- Protean Funds July 2026 DVYSR $91MEVGGF $17B
- Royce Investment Partners Year-to-Date Through 6/30/26 AAP $2.5BBRSL $1.9B
- Polaris Capital Management Second Quarter 2026 ENI $81BIX $43B
- First Eagle Investments second quarter 2026 032830 $42BIMO $60B
- Oakmark Funds 2Q 2026 006400 $31BIKTSF $12B
- Greenhaven Road Capital second quarter ANAB $1.6BBUR $873M
- RGA Investment Advisors Q2 2026 ADBE $99BADYEN $33B
MT 2026-08-27 ArcelorMittal: Regionalization Is Creating A Structurally Better Steel Company
ArcelorMittal’s regional steel franchises, integrated mining and India expansion are lifting EBITDA per ton and supporting per-share…
Capital Connoisseur 1 click
Atlas Engineered Products ($AEP.V) FINS Review
Atlas Engineered Products reported Q2 revenue up 19% to $16.2 million, but ended cashless on its credit line as inventory rose 47% and…
Stripe’s “Singularity” and the Divergence from Adyen
Stripe’s net revenue rose 41% in 1H 2026 versus Adyen’s 21% FX-adjusted growth, fueled by AI-native startups and acquisitions including…
The Junk (Mail) Merger Arb
Star Equity’s $5 per-share Harte-Hanks acquisition offers $2.50 cash plus 0.25 STRRP per share after proration, against a $2 break price.
RCEL 2026-08-24 AVITA Medical: Favorable Reimbursements For Skin Wound Care
AVITA Medical’s more predictable reimbursement, RECELL GO rollout and PermeaDerm economics support adoption, with cash flow breakeven…
Myriam Alvarez 4 clicks
Core Memory
Airbnb Experiences faces a supply bottleneck from manual approvals, while a farm host raised her price from $15 to $25 after stronger…
FUTU 2026-08-23 Futu Holdings: The China Discount Is Obsolete After Q2 Earnings Report
Futu Holdings' Q2 funded accounts rose 33.6%, client assets 43.6% and net income 41.6% as it shifts from mainland China toward Singapore,…
Emanuel Nemec 4 clicks
The Non-linear Economics of Grocery Delivery Basket
Instacart’s larger grocery baskets create disproportionately better delivery economics than DoorDash’s, making half the basket size worth…
$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners
El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…
CCC Is in the Middle of the Wreckage
CCC, the dominant auto physical-damage claims estimator, connects 27 of the top 30 insurers with 31,000 repair shops as takeout rumors…
TMCR · short Metals Royalty Company INC
Metals Royalty Company, a U.S.-focused critical-minerals royalty platform, direct-listed on Nasdaq in April 2026 and holds royalty and…
Adobe Stock Breakdown (Five Minute Money)
Adobe trades at 14x free cash flow after a 60% decline despite growth, with AI, its business-model transition and creative-software…
Ferrari Exploratory Report
Ferrari sells about 13,000 vehicles annually, generating €7 billion of revenue and 28% operating margins; its shares trade at 32 times…
Evolution: 4Q25 Business Update
Evolution's fourth-quarter revenue fell 4% as Asia cyber disruption and European channelization outweighed U.S.
Mitani Corporation (TYO: 8066): $1.2 bn Japanese Conglomerate at 2.6× EV/EBIT with 30+ Years of Profitability
Mitani Corporation trades at 2.6× EV/EBIT and 8.9× earnings, backed by net cash, a 24% lower share count since 2014, and dividends up more…
NLOP - I'm Buying Again
NLOP’s selloff after a weak KBR property sale has created a high-potential IRR entry point.
Programmatic DSPs
Entravision’s Smadex AdTech unit generated 104% revenue growth and 378% EBIT growth, becoming the main upside driver after Meta ended its…
LandBridge: It’s the Pore Space Stupid!
LandBridge’s produced-water pore-space royalties, 69% of Q3 2025 revenue, offer durable value beyond its volatile Permian data-center…
Green Dot: Creating a Standalone BaaS Bank
Green Dot creates a standalone banking-as-a-service bank.
Return of the Power King
China Yuchai (CYD) seeks a 2026 rerating as governance normalization, global expansion, AI data-center power demand, and green-powertrain…
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