Saturday, August 22, 2026

The Non-linear Economics of Grocery Delivery Basket

Instacart’s larger grocery baskets create disproportionately better delivery economics than DoorDash’s, making half the basket size worth far less than half the profit.

DASH $81B

MBI Deep Dives Aug 22 9 clicks

Aug 21 PYPL $45B

Walmart’s Evolution

MBI Deep Dives 4 clicks

Aug 20 ELALF $3.2B

$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners

Yet Another Value Podcast 12 clicks

From X

@catechwilliams Apr 23

catechwilliams on X

$DAKT Just won the massive jumbotron project for the new Titans stadium. Estimated to be $180M. Will be the largest set of displays in the NFL. Bills, Browns stadiums to be announced soon. Wouldn’t be surprised if Mitsubishi acquires them given interest in the category.

@catechwilliams Apr 9

catechwilliams on X

$NX 5% of COGS/ direct input costs sourced from China. Tariffs + zero pricing power, high fixed cost structure + only 30% GMs = 25-30% hit to EBIT. Add 4x leverage, declining volumes, ambitious mgmt guidance while integrating a large acquisition is a setup for a trainwreck.

@catechwilliams Mar 11 2 clicks

catechwilliams on X

$AVO calling out the fact that they have been overearning and margins reverting. “experienced normalization of our per unit avocado margins during in Q1.” Noted weak harvest anticipated in Mexcico. $CVGW will be even more adversely impacted by these factors.

@catechwilliams Mar 6

catechwilliams on X

$DAKT CEO departing, new high-quality CFO (temp) w very attractive secular tailwinds in digital display demand + activist involvement = increased likelihood of takeout. Optimal business for PE. Multiple logical strategics. +75% upside.

@rusholmecapital Mar 1

Rusholme Capital on X

I'm not finding much of interest in this market. Few notes to myself so that I can look back and see how wrong I was: - Software & semi are expensive, but always are. I'm watching $CDW which posted its first revenue growth in a long time - Not finding much of interest in healthcare. Medtech is ex-growth and expensive. Lot of names under pressure from Trump cost cutting - Valuations for financials have gotten stretched. I'm trimming some big winners here - High-ticket consumer goods are struggling, but travel remains strong. Seeing green shoots in Canadian housing. I'm careful with the Canadian cannabis renaissance - Canadian OFS is topping out and transport is getting killed. Several cheap packaging names, but no growth

@catechwilliams Feb 28 3 clicks

catechwilliams on X

$FTDR Vol declining (existing home sales=driver). Pricing lagging inflation, massively over-earning. Problematic given 25% churn w aggressive new entrants. Dubious company overall. Investor day yesterday was comical, compared themselves to $NFLX. Earnings misses coming.

@catechwilliams Feb 12 1 click

catechwilliams on X

$AVO $CVGW 1) Retailers $CMG, etc sourcing elsewhere given MX tariff risk. 2) Avocado price spike during last year’s peak harvest season enabled distributors to realize outsized margins. 1-time benefit has reversed, significant earnings misses ahead for these commodity businesses

@catechwilliams Feb 11

catechwilliams on X

$NX Outlandishly guiding to flat 2025 sales, customers and channel -DD. Commodity window and door components facing pricing pressure from larger customers ($JELD, $OC). Now levered 4x, trading at a premium to higher value-add building products peers. Guide cut inevitable.

Instacart’s Unit Economics, and Implications for DoorDash

Instacart’s per-order unit economics provide a benchmark for assessing DoorDash’s LTM profitability and operating model.

DASH $81B

MBI Deep Dives Aug 20 4 clicks

CCC Is in the Middle of the Wreckage

CCC, the dominant auto physical-damage claims estimator, connects 27 of the top 30 insurers with 31,000 repair shops as takeout rumors…

CCC $4B

scuttleblurb Aug 20 17 clicks

TEM 2026-08-20

Tempus AI Just Had Their Entire Strategy Validated By Moderna's Vaccine Advance

Tempus AI's diagnostics and data businesses grew Q2 2026 revenue 19.4% year over year, with FDA approvals, expanded tests and pricing aimed…

TEM $14BMRNA $73B

Robert J. Lake Aug 20 2 clicks

Aloe Aloe Aloe what 'ave VERRA then?

Verra Mobility's new seven-year Avis agreement replaces a customer worth over 10% of revenue on materially worse economics, exposing…

VRRM $505M

The Oak Bloke Aug 20 13 clicks

BHP 2026-08-20

BHP: Stop Calling This An Iron Ore Stock

BHP expects copper to generate over half of FY2026 EBITDA and plans a 40% production increase by FY2035 after profit, free cash flow and…

BHP $223B

On the Pulse Aug 20 1 click

NCLH or her grandma Saga?

Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028…

NCLH $6.5B

The Oak Bloke Aug 19 13 clicks

APP 2026-08-19

AppLovin: Here's How I See 3 Catalysts That Could Drive Valuation Re-Rating

AppLovin’s AXON 2.0 self-serve rollout, e-commerce onboarding and Connected TV expansion aim to revive growth after Q2 2026 revenue and…

APP $104B

KL Research Aug 19 1 click

Jumia

Jumia’s January 2028 $7/$15 call spread risks $1.15 for up to $6.85 if cost cuts and marketplace growth deliver adjusted EBITDA and…

JMIA $938M

Triple S Special Situations Investing Aug 18 13 clicks

Shitcos, Griftcos, and alignment versus enrichment at $IREN

IREN awarded each co-CEO roughly 9 million RSUs, about 2.5% of shares and $400 million, in exchange for no further equity grants until…

IREN $18B

Yet Another Value Blog Aug 18 12 clicks

$NU: is Nubank Capital One in 1994 or Capital One in 2006? | Vanshap Capital

Nubank's 140 million customers, 20% efficiency ratio and 30% ROE frame whether its high-teens P/E reflects a scalable fintech or a maturing…

NU $68B

Yet Another Value Podcast Aug 17 9 clicks

KVHI · long

KVH Industries

KVH Industries is winding down capital-intensive GEO antenna manufacturing and pivoting to an asset-light maritime connectivity business.

KVHI $128M

Value Investors Club May 23 3 clicks

BAC 2026-08-20

Bank of America Preferreds: Better Propositions Available Than Series GG

Bank of America’s BAC.PR.B yields just over 6% near par, while discounted lower-coupon series such as BAC.PR.P offer better value despite…

BAC $393B

Prakhar Agarwal, CFA Aug 20 1 click

Airbnb Model Update (2026)

Airbnb shares have risen about 50% since October 2025, prompting a revised 2026 model and return assumptions at the current price.

ABNB $90B

MBI Deep Dives Aug 19 4 clicks

AZN 2026-08-19

AstraZeneca Vs. Bristol-Myers Squibb: Who's The Better Bargain For Investors?

AstraZeneca and Bristol-Myers Squibb are compared on oncology and inflammatory-disease drug portfolios as merger rumors cool.

AZN $261BBMY $127B

ALLKA Research Aug 19 1 click

Why DoorDash’s Autonomous Strategy Beats Uber’s Hodgepodge

DoorDash’s integrated autonomous-delivery strategy contrasts with Uber’s 2026 divestment of Serve Robotics, its former delivery-robot…

DASH $81BSERV $385M

MBI Deep Dives Aug 17 4 clicks

Stock Trade Compilation Diez

E.W. Scripps, Team Internet, Monro, doValue and Inter & Co feature as special-situation trades involving mergers, asset sales, leverage and…

SSP $292MMNRO $422M

Triple S Special Situations Investing Aug 17 9 clicks

Will Hubspot go the way of the Dodo?

HubSpot trades near its 2020 share price despite quadrupled revenue and $750 million in free cash flow, with Breeze AI upside weighed…

HUBS $11B

The Oak Bloke Aug 16 9 clicks

$DNOW: the boring distributor that could double on 2029 numbers | Firebird Management

DNOW’s MRC Global merger targets $75 million of synergies, with a 2029 bull case of $30 to $32 per share driven by cash flow and rerating.

DNOW $2.9B

Yet Another Value Podcast Aug 14 9 clicks

The AI Compute Squeeze

CoreWeave and Nebius cite AI compute shortages and higher-priced GPU renewals, but older-chip utilization and depreciation vary across…

CRWV $50BNBIS $64B

MBI Deep Dives Aug 14 8 clicks

Are Department Stores Finally Shortable?

Macy’s and Kohl’s face renewed short cases as their recent reratings ignore fading store-refresh gains, credit-card earnings exposure and…

M $5.9BKSS $1.9B

Bristlemoon Capital Aug 13 9 clicks

Saturday, August 22, 2026

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