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Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey

Wednesday, August 19, 2026

NCLH or her grandma Saga?

Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028 profit.

The Oak Bloke Aug 19

Airbnb Model Update (2026)

MBI Deep Dives Aug 19

Jumia

Triple S Special Situations Investing Aug 18

From X

@natstewart5 Jul 7

Nat Stewart on X

@GardinerIsland $BSM has kinda muffled volatility relatively speaking if you don't mind a K-1, have a pretty good plan to grow production on their land next ~5 yrs (they own royalty interests), systematically hedge ~75% of production.

@natstewart5 Jul 4

Nat Stewart on X

@orrdavid I don't own $WEN but I do see a powerful upside potential. Perhaps I am biased as it has been my favorite burger fast food restaurant for 35+ years (the only one my parents let us go to when I was a kid😂).

@natstewart5 Jun 25

Nat Stewart on X

The funny part about the WSB action in $WEN is that they hit on a pretty compelling idea with a hugely skewed risk/reward. Thinking the bull case needs to be about "squeezing shorts" to "save Wendy's" or similar BS is absurd.

@marginofdanger May 28

marginofdanger on X

Another great quarter from $WEBC with accelerating top line and gross margin expansion. Company continues to buy back and refresh buyback. https://t.co/w22AeWh2pH https://t.co/BK1bO8vt37

@marginofdanger May 27

marginofdanger on X

Don't normally focus on sellside notes but in this instance Pablo Zuanic is on point re: $MAPS https://t.co/5ZgejaYBR7

@marginofdanger May 22

marginofdanger on X

$TIPT filed an 8-K this morning where they said they expected the Fortegra deal to close by Friday 5/29. Pro forma TBV is ~$24/share, stock last 17.17.

@marginofdanger May 19

marginofdanger on X

CBBI trades at 0.4x because of its OTC listing and no buyback; projected five-year value is $18.66 without repurchases versus $19.10 with them.

@marginofdanger May 19

marginofdanger on X

CBBI’s five-year scenarios find reinvesting its $0.50 annual dividend roughly matches a buyback, assuming a sale at 100% of tangible book value. Buybacks lose value if repurchases rise above 0.4x TBV.

Investor Letters

Shitcos, Griftcos, and alignment versus enrichment at $IREN

IREN awarded each co-CEO roughly 9 million RSUs, about 2.5% of shares and $400 million, in exchange for no further equity grants until…

Yet Another Value Blog Aug 18

$NU: is Nubank Capital One in 1994 or Capital One in 2006? | Vanshap Capital

Nubank's 140 million customers, 20% efficiency ratio and 30% ROE frame whether its high-teens P/E reflects a scalable fintech or a maturing…

Yet Another Value Podcast Aug 17

Why DoorDash’s Autonomous Strategy Beats Uber’s Hodgepodge

DoorDash’s integrated autonomous-delivery strategy contrasts with Uber’s 2026 divestment of Serve Robotics, its former delivery-robot…

DASH $99BSERV $405M

MBI Deep Dives Aug 17

Stock Trade Compilation Diez

E.W. Scripps, Team Internet, Monro, doValue and Inter & Co feature as special-situation trades involving mergers, asset sales, leverage and…

SSP $305MMNRO $436M

Triple S Special Situations Investing Aug 17

The $1.5 Trillion of Hidden Debt Fueling the AI Boom | Robin Wigglesworth of FT Alphaville

Hyperscalers’ off-balance-sheet lease and purchase obligations rose from roughly $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion, turning the AI buildout into…

GOOGL $4.2TMETA $1.4T

The Monetary Matters Network Aug 16

Will Hubspot go the way of the Dodo?

HubSpot trades near its 2020 share price despite quadrupled revenue and $750 million in free cash flow, with Breeze AI upside weighed…

The Oak Bloke Aug 16

AI’s Achilles’ Heel: Why Everything Hinges on Anthropic & OpenAI | The Weekly Wrap

Steve Eisman argues the AI boom hinges on Anthropic and OpenAI’s importance to hyperscalers, while weighing software, CoreWeave and Cisco…

MSFT $3.6TAMZN $2.8T

Steve Eisman Aug 14

$DNOW: the boring distributor that could double on 2029 numbers | Firebird Management

DNOW’s MRC Global merger targets $75 million of synergies, with a 2029 bull case of $30 to $32 per share driven by cash flow and rerating.

Yet Another Value Podcast Aug 14

The AI Compute Squeeze

CoreWeave and Nebius cite AI compute shortages and higher-priced GPU renewals, but older-chip utilization and depreciation vary across…

CRWV $49BNBIS $61B

MBI Deep Dives Aug 14

Are Department Stores Finally Shortable?

Macy’s and Kohl’s face renewed short cases as their recent reratings ignore fading store-refresh gains, credit-card earnings exposure and…

M $6.1BKSS $2B

Bristlemoon Capital Aug 13

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[scuttleslops] ZTS, APO, FISV, TTD, RELY

scuttleblurb Aug 13

The Impact of Autonomous Vehicles on Copart, A Timeline-Based Assessment - ($CPRT)

Bearhold Research Aug 13

Permian Basin Q2 Update – Power, Water, Solid Waste, and Data Centers

310 Value’s Newsletter Aug 12

Entravision Q2 Notes

The Value Road Aug 11

$UWMC lost $600m hedging a deal they'd already lost

Yet Another Value Blog Aug 11

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