NCLH or her grandma Saga?
Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028 profit.
Wednesday, August 19, 2026
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From X
BDC on X
@DueDoctor Oh I agree 100%. The move is totally insane. $GME like. +20% would have made some sense based on math. I actually think lack of 2ndary here is even WORSE for them. They need the cash. 2ndary cleans up that need.
BDC on X
@DueDoctor All goes well this could add $800mn in annual revenue to $mrna. Added $44B in market cap. Market said that theoretical 2-3 year out revenue is worth 50x + yesterdays' market cap
BDC on X
@BoxLongs $SNAP added $250mn in revenue yy and $200mn in adj ebitda. Adj shares outstanding actually decreased 70 bps yy. FCF +400% yy. While everyone knows its a horribly managed asset, the numbers in isolation are MUCH improved YoY while stock itself is down 30% yy.
Ian Bezek on X
@SandBrandyn I bought a basket of software and adjacent in Feb/March. $TEAM most ridiculous example both to the down and now upside... I don't trust the management teams enough to make a concentrated bet on any of these.
Ian Bezek on X
Atlassian $TEAM now up 214% since April, and +5% YTD. Market very efficiently determining future discounted cash flows from software companies, I see.
Ian Bezek on X
@LocalHero55 @OtterMarket @gatorcapital Post on an even more obscure MHC bank. And yes, $TFSL is a great income instrument, with (eventually) a chunky cap gain exit when they finally convert.
Ian Bezek on X
@OtterMarket @gatorcapital $tfsl is just under a billion when you exclude the phantom shares. I've owned it a long time and very few people care about it either. That said, this NY one is even more obscure
Ian Bezek on X
@stoked_on_waves @CapitalShipyard $open's backers also claim it is profitable. Apparently you can just say stuff now
Investor Letters
All letters- Palm Harbour Capital July 2026 082920 $961MVVVNF $1.6B
- Protean Funds July 2026 EVGGF $15BNVO $168B
- First Eagle Investments second quarter 2026 0R1M $888BAEM $93B
- RGA Investment Advisors Q2 2026 ADBE $90BADYEN $31B
- Royce Investment Partners year-to-date period ended 6/30/26 ACA $7.2BADMA $2.3B
- Oakmark Funds 2Q 2026 CRBG $15B
- Southeastern Asset Management 2Q26 ACI $5.7BAVTR $11B
- Horizon Kinetics 2nd Quarter 2026 TPL $24BAMZN $2.7T
Shitcos, Griftcos, and alignment versus enrichment at $IREN
IREN awarded each co-CEO roughly 9 million RSUs, about 2.5% of shares and $400 million, in exchange for no further equity grants until…
$NU: is Nubank Capital One in 1994 or Capital One in 2006? | Vanshap Capital
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Why DoorDash’s Autonomous Strategy Beats Uber’s Hodgepodge
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Stock Trade Compilation Diez
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The $1.5 Trillion of Hidden Debt Fueling the AI Boom | Robin Wigglesworth of FT Alphaville
Hyperscalers’ off-balance-sheet lease and purchase obligations rose from roughly $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion, turning the AI buildout into…
Will Hubspot go the way of the Dodo?
HubSpot trades near its 2020 share price despite quadrupled revenue and $750 million in free cash flow, with Breeze AI upside weighed…
AI’s Achilles’ Heel: Why Everything Hinges on Anthropic & OpenAI | The Weekly Wrap
Steve Eisman argues the AI boom hinges on Anthropic and OpenAI’s importance to hyperscalers, while weighing software, CoreWeave and Cisco…
$DNOW: the boring distributor that could double on 2029 numbers | Firebird Management
DNOW’s MRC Global merger targets $75 million of synergies, with a 2029 bull case of $30 to $32 per share driven by cash flow and rerating.
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Are Department Stores Finally Shortable?
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CHRW · long C H Robinson Worldwide INC
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Stitch Fix’s rushed Freestyle pivot cannibalized its profitable Fix business, driving active clients below 3.4 million, quarterly revenue…
Meta On the Offense!
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Infineon Technologies (IFX GY): Power Overwhelming
Infineon’s power semiconductors stand to benefit from AI data centers shifting to 800VDC power delivery, though its sharp rerating to…
Under The Hood, Universal Health Services - $UHS
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Too Many Cooks Spoil The Pot
Baron’s BARAX and BGAFX hold SpaceX at a $1.25 trillion valuation, creating a potential NAV uplift if its IPO prices higher.
[scuttleslops] SPOT, UMG, TXN, SPGI, TRU, ADSK, MTCH, CSGP, DLTR
Spotify and Universal Music Group will offer licensed AI song covers and remixes as a Premium add-on, with artist opt-in and royalty…
The last Bristol Myers' blog post was wrong on the core thesis
Ivonescimab plus chemotherapy extended median overall survival by 4.2 months versus Tevimbra plus chemotherapy in HARMONI-6, challenging…
eDreams: Disproving the Bears and Regaining Credibility
EDreams cut FY26 Prime-member guidance to 600,000 after Ryanair blocks, while its subscription model lifted Prime to 7.25 million members…
A non-consensus thesis: the forthcoming demise of Bristol Myers Squibb.
Bristol Myers Squibb’s bear case centers on patent-cliff revenue losses, debt, and failed drug investment after $28.3 billion of 2019–23…
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