Sunday, August 16, 2026

Will Hubspot go the way of the Dodo?

HubSpot trades near its 2020 share price despite quadrupled revenue and $750 million in free cash flow, with Breeze AI upside weighed against SEO-driven SMB churn risk.

HUBS $11B

The Oak Bloke Aug 16 9 clicks

Aug 14 DNOW $2.8B

$DNOW: the boring distributor that could double on 2029 numbers | Firebird Management

Yet Another Value Podcast 9 clicks

Aug 14 CRWV $47B

The AI Compute Squeeze

MBI Deep Dives 8 clicks

From X

@orrdavid Aug 16 3 clicks

David Orr on X

@keisan_15 Yes that is why I liked $MEDP

@orrdavid Aug 16 3 clicks

David Orr on X

I privately told a few fund managers I respect these investing themes/theses privately: "AI is going to drive far more medical/biotech research in pursuit of age reversal technologies than we had before. In fact, at least a couple of these are reasonably likely to be the most valuable companies on the planet in 10-20 years." and related, "Many of the old medical research companies are dinosaurs, since their tech will not keep up with the new age of AI driven medical research." I told them this at the start of 2025, and for example mentioned they avoid shorting $ARKG type stocks. I could tell they thought I was completely retarded, out of my mind, etc. A couple thoughts: 1. I bet those people don't think the idea is stupid at all today. and 2. Having a thesis that seems insane but is often wrong is *awesome*. It's a heads you win, tails you lose nothing situation. Besides $MEDP long, I didn't really know how to play the idea other than avoiding a bunch of shorts. These are theses I still very much believe today, and still today I don't see people talking about them.

@orrdavid Aug 16 2 clicks

David Orr on X

@olliejmorgan $MEDP was like this.

@irbezek Aug 16 2 clicks

Ian Bezek on X

@MoodyWriter13 I think $NBIS is as viable of a business as $OKLO is -- that is to say, a clear stock promote as opposed to a for-profit business. But little reason to post about it. The bulls have their view and reality will come for them in due time. I'm not going to change their mind.

@AltayCapital Aug 16 2 clicks

AltayCap on X

New writeup on the 'Stack. MegaChips (TYO 6875). After-tax stake in $SITM in the U.S. + NCAV is ¥19,842 vs ¥11,250 stock price. Operating biz is capital light and management aims for ¥10bn in OP in FY30. There's other financial assets too. mcap: ¥158.3 billion ($1 bn USD) https://t.co/gPhHG8P5nY

@irbezek Aug 15 4 clicks

Ian Bezek on X

@boujee_banker @Nobilis_Capital @HettyGreen2020 $FMX reports Bara data, it's growing double digits as well, albeit slower than $TBBB. https://t.co/hlJy1GhSnZ

@irbezek Aug 15 3 clicks

Ian Bezek on X

@sadvalueinvestr Anthropic buying Pacifico Airports $PAC at 25x EBITDA would be accretive to their earnings, and I'd be a willing seller at that price. Let's make a deal!

@irbezek Aug 14 2 clicks

Ian Bezek on X

@WaterworldCapi1 $jets Bad industry, oil might go up again, consumer spending may roll over, and the new "capacity discipline" is more lucky accident than strategic. Somebody, probably $aal will start dumping capacity on routes again and margins back to zero

Are Department Stores Finally Shortable?

Macy’s and Kohl’s face renewed short cases as their recent reratings ignore fading store-refresh gains, credit-card earnings exposure and…

M $5.8B

Bristlemoon Capital Aug 13 9 clicks

[scuttleslops] ZTS, APO, FISV, TTD, RELY

Zoetis’s U.S. companion-animal revenue fell 6% as dermatology competition drove rebates and discounts, pushing full-year net pricing to…

ZTS $30B

scuttleblurb Aug 13 9 clicks

The Impact of Autonomous Vehicles on Copart, A Timeline-Based Assessment - ($CPRT)

Copart faces a near-term lift from pricier AV repairs and total losses, but shrinking accident volumes could eventually force its…

CPRT $27B

Bearhold Research Aug 13 9 clicks

Permian Basin Q2 Update – Power, Water, Solid Waste, and Data Centers

GFL’s proposed acquisition of Secure follows 19% revenue growth at Secure and 14.8% EBITDA growth at GFL, with Permian produced-water and…

GFL $15B

310 Value’s Newsletter Aug 12 11 clicks

$UWMC lost $600m hedging a deal they'd already lost

UWMC booked a roughly $600 million Q2 hedging loss tied to TWO months after the deal collapsed, contributing to an expensive capital raise.

UWMC $2B

Yet Another Value Blog Aug 11 11 clicks

Private Credit's Clock is Ticking w/ Glenn Schorr & Ken Worthington | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 72

Glenn Schorr and Ken Worthington discuss risks in private-credit software loans, agentic AI at retail brokers, crypto use cases and bank…

LPLA $26B

Steve Eisman Aug 10 13 clicks

Figma 2Q'26: Near-Term Re-acceleration vs. Long-Term Durability

Figma raised its 2026 revenue growth guide to 39%, but a roughly 1% sequential 3Q outlook and unchanged $125-135 million operating-income…

FIG $12B

MBI Deep Dives Aug 10 10 clicks

$HIMS: Paul Cerro wouldn't trust the CEO to walk his dog. He's still long. Why? | Cedar Grove

Hims & Hers investor Paul Cerro is long again on lab and patient data driving retention and LTV, despite management concerns, GLP-1…

HIMS $7.1B

Yet Another Value Podcast Aug 7 9 clicks

Airbnb 2Q'26: Widening the Gap with Booking

Airbnb added 14 million booked nights and seats, up 10%, and guided low-double-digit third-quarter growth as North America and EMEA…

ABNB $90B

MBI Deep Dives Aug 7 6 clicks

Coupang: 2Q26 Business Recap

Coupang’s product-commerce revenue rose 8% in constant currency as data-leak churn lingered, while promotions and underused logistics…

CPNG $26B

Speedwell Memos Aug 5 8 clicks

OTIS · long

Otis Worldwide CORP

Otis Worldwide's largest global elevator installed base generates 95% recurring revenue, with service margins above 90% supporting a…

OTIS $26B

Value Investors Club May 8 2 clicks

[VRSK] Verisk has standards

Verisk’s exit from healthcare, financial-services and energy data restored a pure-play insurance analytics model, but D.E.

VRSK $22B

scuttleblurb Jun 8 1 click

Infineon Technologies (IFX GY): Power Overwhelming

Infineon’s power semiconductors stand to benefit from AI data centers shifting to 800VDC power delivery, though its sharp rerating to…

IFNNY $89B

Bristlemoon Capital Jun 4 1 click

Under The Hood, Universal Health Services - $UHS

Universal Health Services faces a $432 million–$480 million annual Medicaid supplemental-payment hit by 2032, offset by behavioral-health…

UHS $10B

Bearhold Research Jun 4 2 clicks

The last Bristol Myers' blog post was wrong on the core thesis

Ivonescimab plus chemotherapy extended median overall survival by 4.2 months versus Tevimbra plus chemotherapy in HARMONI-6, challenging…

SMMT $14B

John Hempton's Newsletter May 31 7 clicks

Adobe Deep Dive

Adobe trades at 14x earnings after a 65% decline, with AI, Canva and Figma threatening subscriptions, customer acquisition and…

ADBE $99B

Speedwell Memos May 26 2 clicks

Vidrala

Vidrala has grown from a Spanish glass-container maker into a multi-country packaging platform with expanding Latin American exposure.

VDRFF $3.6B

smallvalue. May 19 6 clicks

Under The Hood: Domino's Pizza - $DPZ

Domino’s 99%-franchised model converts global retail sales into royalties and supply-chain revenue, but $4.8 billion of debt and mature…

DPZ $9.8B

Bearhold Research May 8 2 clicks

Adobe Expert Insight Interview (No Paywall)

Adobe trades at 11x earnings despite $24.5 billion of revenue, 37% operating margins and 12% profit growth; a former data-science head…

ADBE $99B

Speedwell Memos May 4

PayPal tries again (and again)

Stripe’s startup-focused product sprawl contrasts with Adyen’s enterprise restraint; despite 20% more payment volume and faster growth,…

PYPL $45B

scuttleblurb May 4

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