Late August 2026 Random Ramblings
Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven capital allocation.
Today
From X
catechwilliams on X
$CVGW. Another red flag. CFO departing after just 2 years w CEO's old buddy as replacement. Massively over-earnings w volumes continuing to decline from lost customers and margins reverting lower.
catechwilliams on X
@StockJabber Thank you. As a read on $PLUS Q3 is tracking in October, $CSCO just reported -23% sales in networking (products account for ~50% of $PLUS revenue) for the Oct quarter-end. Further confirmation that PLUS Q3 is going to be ugly and no turnaround in sight.
catechwilliams on X
$PLUS Accelerating, sales -14% y/y in Q2, noted Q3 not improving yet implied FY guide is for flat sales (downward revisions to come). Margins benefitted from 1-time financing segment gain-on-sale. Still trading at a premium to higher quality industry leader CDW, makes zero sense.
catechwilliams on X
$AS 50x P/E levered retail roll-up w only one decent asset (Arc’teryx). Stagnating in the US, nearly fully-penetrated in China. >$500 jackets didn’t work for $GOOS in Asia. Arc already bigger. Hyper promotional mgmt sent the stock skyward. This is going to be an epic crash.
catechwilliams on X
$CVGW In MRQ benefited from temp avocado price spike and 1-time F/X add-back. Volumes have been declining LDD for the last 3Qs ($CMG shifting suppliers). DOJ investigation continues. Prices & earnings reverting lower. Commodity distributor trading at 30x P/E is not sustainable.
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT New $50M display upgrade award for the Miami Heat arena. Will be a nice boost to current quarter earnings (FQ2'25). https://t.co/sLAFBEerYi
catechwilliams on X
$NX Just acquired peer Tyman. >3x leverage, never done a deal before, commodity business, customers all cutting numbers w deteriorating resi remodel activity ($AMWD yesterday, $MBC, $OC, $JELD). Stock is trading at close to 14x EPS. Seen this movie before. Earnings next week.
catechwilliams on X
$CVGW RFG sale is delayed again (latest 10-Q stated will close end of July). This is the 3rd delay. Now unlikely to close at all. Will require a restatement of the last 2 quarters, revealing much lower earnings (likely negative EPS, negative FCF). https://t.co/lVsZZT37Cf
Investor Letters
All letters- Sequoia Fund year ended December 31, 2025 +22.1%
- Sequoia Fund first quarter of 2026 -11.0%
- Palm Harbour Capital 2022 Q4
- Palm Harbour Capital first quarter of 2023
- Royce Investment Partners Year-to-Date Through 6/30/26 +13.7%
- Maran Capital Management 2Q 2026 +5.4%
- Patient Capital Management 2Q25 +15.3%
- Patient Capital Management 3Q25 +14.1%
BHVN 2026-08-27 Biohaven: Sale Of Opakalim Rights To SK Biopharmaceuticals Makes Sense On Many Levels
Edmund Ingham KSTR 2026-08-27 KSTR: Exposure To China's Chips And Potential Diversifier For SOXX
Chetan Woodun ACIW 2026-08-27 ACI Worldwide: An Undercovered Payments Compounder Getting Better
SiliconBytes Insights 
Domo (Arigato), for this potential multi-bagger options trade
Domo’s $400 million sale to Progress would leave a cash-rich public shell with $900 million of NOLs; January 2028 $5 calls cost 22 cents.
Nvidia’s Long-Term Margin Question
Nvidia faces questions over the durability of its long-term profit margins ahead of earnings.
[scuttleslops] AI Data Center Economics, ADI, INTU, IDXX
AWS AI campuses cost $40–$45 billion per gigawatt, with Trainium 3 expected to lift compute per megawatt and improve infrastructure returns.
Big Tech Off-Balance Sheet Concerns
Big Tech’s $3 trillion AI commitments are disclosed and largely long-dated, with nearly 60% of Amazon’s $650 billion commitments falling…
Atlas Engineered Products ($AEP.V) FINS Review
Atlas Engineered Products reported Q2 revenue up 19% to $16.2 million, but ended cashless on its credit line as inventory rose 47% and…
The Junk (Mail) Merger Arb
Star Equity’s $5 per-share Harte-Hanks acquisition offers $2.50 cash plus 0.25 STRRP per share after proration, against a $2 break price.
$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners
El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…
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