Late August 2026 Random Ramblings
Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven capital allocation.
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From X
David Orr on X
Citadel’s semiconductor bet depends on whether SOXX’s drop is technical or reflects weakening AI-chip fundamentals, with forced selling and redemptions shaping the near-term exit.
David Orr on X
@FixedIncQuant @nickgiva1 $IBIT has a $46 billion AUM.
BDC on X
Apple trades at 35 times earnings despite Services deceleration and slowing China revenue, with harder comparisons ahead and near-doubled market capitalization raising ownership risk.
BDC on X
A few mins to go, but this has been by far Andy Jassy's best call ever as CEO. Well done sir. $AMZN
BDC on X
$AMZN op margin of 13.7% is its highest quarterly margin ever by a pretty wide margin. ROIC showing itself.
BDC on X
In July the bubble moved over into $AAPL where it was hanging out during the semis blood bath. $AAPL with a so/so print is constructive since that there the bubble has been parked.
BDC on X
$AMZN incremental AWS margins are 57% and operating cash flow grew +40% against a much harder comp. These types of numbers show that ROIC is there on the capex.
BDC on X
I know I was poking some fun at $META last night but I think its a buy here in all seriousness. Not advice. But lots of ways to win in the end. Not advice, do own DD etc. I could be wrong.
Investor Letters
All letters- Sequoia Fund year ended December 31, 2025 +22.1%
- Palm Harbour Capital 2022 Q4
- Palm Harbour Capital first quarter of 2023
- Royce Investment Partners Year-to-Date Through 6/30/26 +13.7%
- Maran Capital Management 2Q 2026 +5.4%
- Patient Capital Management 2Q25 +15.3%
- Patient Capital Management 3Q25 +14.1%
- Intrepid Capital 2Q 2026 +6.6%
MT 2026-08-27 ArcelorMittal: Regionalization Is Creating A Structurally Better Steel Company
Capital Connoisseur VRT 2026-08-27 Vertiv: AI's Physical Bottleneck Is Expanding Its Value Per Megawatt
LL Insights 
Nvidia’s Long-Term Margin Question
Nvidia faces questions over the durability of its long-term profit margins ahead of earnings.
[scuttleslops] AI Data Center Economics, ADI, INTU, IDXX
AWS AI campuses cost $40–$45 billion per gigawatt, with Trainium 3 expected to lift compute per megawatt and improve infrastructure returns.
Big Tech Off-Balance Sheet Concerns
Big Tech’s $3 trillion AI commitments are disclosed and largely long-dated, with nearly 60% of Amazon’s $650 billion commitments falling…
Stripe’s “Singularity” and the Divergence from Adyen
Stripe’s net revenue rose 41% in 1H 2026 versus Adyen’s 21% FX-adjusted growth, fueled by AI-native startups and acquisitions including…
$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners
El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…
CCC Is in the Middle of the Wreckage
CCC, the dominant auto physical-damage claims estimator, connects 27 of the top 30 insurers with 31,000 repair shops as takeout rumors…
Aloe Aloe Aloe what 'ave VERRA then?
Verra Mobility's new seven-year Avis agreement replaces a customer worth over 10% of revenue on materially worse economics, exposing…
NCLH or her grandma Saga?
Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028…
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