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Thursday, October 15, 2026· 3780 stock ideas· 217 writers·
15,108 views· 7,195 clicks

Constellation: Stars Aligning?

Constellation Brands trades near $127 at roughly 11x next-twelve-month EV/EBIT, with recent business results offsetting concerns over cannabis, craft beer and dealmaking.

STZ $21B
TSOH Investment Research

From X

@aleabitoreddit 1 click

Serenity on X

Clearly a macro related drop after CPI numbers came out today and further US rate hike anticipation. Since $KOSPI, $SPY, and Nikkei ended up plummeting. There's too many potential second/third order effects that's hard to map due if $CRWV goes down or frontier labs struggle (given contractual obligations). Rate hikes understandably amplifies a lot of those fears. But I do think everything getting sold off together presents opportunities. If $LITE has take/pay contracts + sold out until 2029 for lasers and is being financed by hyperscalers for 2031 demand. The demand visibility + financing (with counterparties like $MSFT or $AMZN) are too solid that I wouldn't bunch companies in the optical sector together (that already have cash on hand via ATMs or private placement). With a neocloud that requires billions in future toxic financing in high rate environments. I think markets will eventually distinguish nuances from actual profitability, financing, and long term demand sustainability rather than just treating everything as one "bubble".
@aleabitoreddit 1 click

Serenity on X

It's interesting to see Elon interacting with finance X accounts out of the blue. Then amplifying $CRWV financing concerns, Chinese memory flooding, to AI investors being gamblers recently. With $SPCX and $TSLA, I do think Elon is a visionary but from how it looks from the outside... Amplifying concerns about competitors does make their financing more difficult as a self-fulfilling prophecy. And multiple posts about Chinese memory flooding after calling Samsung/SK Hynix pricing extortion does harm these supplier valuations... The economic incentives of doing so probably benefits Tesla/SpaceX more in the long run, even if everything goes down together. There's merit to a lot of things (I've been voicing Coreweave concerns about debt interest + rate hikes for the longest time...). But much like high end memory flooding to nuances of "No crying in a Casino" when the $AVGO CEO comments were regarding OpenAI ARR datapoints... were missed. You can throw rocks at others when a glass house is propped up by passive index flows
@BrokenMoats 2 clicks

Broken Moats on X

Hottest trade in the past month.....retail stocks Seems odd with rates and oil and diesel moves over the same time frame. And these are not bounces from being oversold these are double digit moves in most cases to new highs while dpz struggled on their print this week, stocks like DKS collapsed around the time this trade started. Bifurcation in retail in recent weeks that seems to be favoring low quality. Something to watch for a reversal soon $KSS $FIGS $URBN $SHOP
@BrokenMoats 3 clicks

Broken Moats on X

Quickly back to very attractive levels to put back on short exposure on the software sector after the manic move in Q3 and digestion in September before the sudden crash up in the past 10 days..... AI wins software is in trouble - faster disruption more competition, pricing pressure AI trade is over, software is going to catch down as the market will tank and this won't sit that out (the are not cheap) Disruption and pricing is the tailwind, now valuation is too. Rates don't hurt either as up until recently these were considered long duration assets Recent results were status quo for most (no real acceleration) and pitch AI cohort growth as growing xx% but its not uplifting the total growth they are just changing what they charge for to show the street what it wants to hear) -- that phase is over, valuations are in many cases at year and multi year highs. SBC still a problem. Now comes renewals in the back of this year and thats where the issues will start to emerge on retention and pricing. An thats day 1 they will snowball overtime for the vast majority of these companies. Plenty of names to choose from: $PAYC $DOCU $TEAM $DDOG $PCTY $GDDY $RNG
@ParadisLabs 3 clicks

Paradis on X

An example that there are always trades in the market. $NAVN +12% in a ~couple weeks while sentiment & flows for semis/bottlenecks has fallen off. If anyone wants a Navan investment thesis: Navan is a corporate travel and expense platform. I believed that the market punished the stock (-22%) after Q2 earnings for no good reason. Plus, I also heard some pretty big investors bought the dip aggressively. It makes sense to follow the flows sometimes when fundamentals align. - Total GBV rose 45% to >$3B driven by new customers, ramping cohorts, and expansion of installed base. - Enterprise customers: Continued momentum in the enterprise market. - AI platform adoption: Over 50% of AI calls now run on Navan's proprietary models, with its AI support agent handling about 60% of customer interactions. Ultimately, investors were disappointed because they reported rising op. costs and expanded op. losses. But the market completely overlooked the fact that corporate traven demand has skyrocketed w/ business travel in the US generating $624B in GDP (Global Business Travel Association). Going forwards, I believe that enterprises will look for AI-native solutions that save them time and money while also resulting in better outcomes for the customer. From what I hear, Navan's AI is pretty sweet. ***I have taken profits to bolster my cash piles. Also, $IOT is flat over the same period.

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