Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
Get Daily Recap Feedback

Latest News

Market capUnder $10B
All Over $50MOver $300MOver $2BOver $10B
All Under $1BUnder $10BUnder $100BUnder $500B
SectorsAll
Filter by sector
Thursday, October 15, 2026· 5060 stock ideas· 217 writers·
15,995 views· 7,461 clicks

Problems at Dream Finders Homes (DFH)

Dream Finders Homes’ controlling owner borrowed against DFH stock before the homebuilder agreed to finance an acquisition with costly preferred stock and debt.

DFH $808M
Hunterbrook 4 clicks

From X

@DOMOCAPITAL

DOMO Capital Management, LLC on X

Adjusted EBITDA should be lower than Q2 and last year's Q3 (this year's Q2 was actually higher than last year's Q3!). But EPS should definitely be above analyst estimates and could possibly top Q2 EPS. Market doesn't understand how the hedges on the specialty alcohol work. Q2 EPS were penalized simply because the price of ethanol fell a bit during Q2. Well... during Q3, the price of ethanol rocketed higher. Therefore, even though Q2 had a much better average crush margin than Q3, it's possible Q3 could have higher EPS due to how these hedges work. To be clear - on an annual basis - the hedging has no impact. $ALTO is just locking in profit margin. But since it's not hedge accounting... it has an impact on each quarter's earnings. ALTO's business is operating very well. They're posting quarter after quarter of profitable earnings. Q4 should be solid as well and crush margins are strengthening again. Once California E15 kicks in (1/1/2027) then margins will strengthen further. Additionally: It sounds like passage of farm bill that includes E15 is very likely by end of this year. Check out this Politico article highlighting how the GOP is likely to pass a ton of stuff before the end of the year: https://t.co/3VL4DjDnzy "Such a bill, he added, would be “giant” and would include “all the Republican priorities that we can get done.” The House approved a framework for a party-line bill over the summer that includes war funding, farm aid and election integrity incentives. But the push has so far run aground in the Senate Moreno said the threat of imminent Democratic control of either the House or Senate would jump-start matters — and potentially push Republicans to include a debt-ceiling increase as well." "Moreno said if Democrats win control of both chambers, Republicans should stay in session nonstop to pass GOP legislation — which could be a tall order given worries about poor post-election attendance. “If we lose the House and the Senate, we should be here from Nov. 9 until Dec. 31 with no break at all,” Moreno said. “Like, we’ll have turkeys here for Thanksgiving because we have to get this done.”"
@BrokenMoats 1 click

Broken Moats on X

Have to at least acknowledge rate reversal and move into low quality and retail/software today...... But oil/diesel/soft commodities/transportation all staying bid, find this more positioning over extended om rates then durable change (especially with the data and the still unresolved issues causing the inflation) AI sold off I think is what is driving both moves in rates (more out needs a home) and retail/rate sensitive/software were the funding shorts (see sectors and components today) ......but geez at these prices an easier trade I think is to fade software/retail then guess next stop on AI and funding.....the are correlated (for now) anyways. Go through the sectors and components and sort by % gain today almost stacked ranked from worst business (biggest intraday gain) to quality at the bottom.....tells you whats going on. Some might say low quality always leads on a reversal.....this is not a start this is after a stealth sharp move higher for $ARHS $ETSY $EBAY $KSS $SHAK $WMT $CBRL $APPN $DOCU $IT $FRSH $BSP etc.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

If the AI model Nubeva Technologies $NBVAF (TSXV: $NBVA) is training to read malware works, it could also take over the one step in its ransomware recovery software that engineers still do by hand. Nubeva’s Ransomware Reversal software, or NuRR, copies the encryption keys during an attack, but someone still has to figure out how ransomware uses them before Nubeva can build a decryptor (a program that reverses the encryption). AI agents have run NuRR’s routine support (bug fixes, support tickets, and product maintenance) for some time, CEO Randy Chou said, but Nubeva’s engineers still handle each live ransomware case by hand. Nubeva’s first granted patent finds the encryption method by running the ransomware in a sandbox (an isolated test computer) and matching the result to a library of standard methods. But the sandbox method breaks down in two cases Chou described, since homemade encryption (encryption ransomware authors write themselves) won’t match any standard method, and malware that detects the sandbox does nothing. A model that reads the malware’s compiled code could get around both problems, since (1) homemade encryption still shows up in the code as steps a model can follow, and (2) the malware’s checks for a real computer only run when the malware runs, so reading the code never triggers the checks. With NuRR supplying the keys and the model working out the encryption method, Nubeva would have both inputs a decryptor needs without an engineer taking the ransomware apart by hand. Frontier models, the most advanced AI models from labs like OpenAI and Anthropic, can already work out what some binaries (compiled programs) do just by reading their code. Anthropic said in April 2026 that its Claude Mythos Preview model can take “a closed-source, stripped binary,” meaning one with its function and variable names removed, and reconstruct “(plausible) source code for what it does.” Obfuscation (scrambling code to hide its purpose) is harder for a model to get past, since compressed malware keeps its real code hidden until it runs. Chou blamed obfuscation for the ~70% of malware binaries frontier models can’t figure out, so Nubeva’s model still has to prove it can do better. Chou didn’t connect the model to NuRR in his October 5, 2026 interview, but working out the encryption method is the same step Nubeva’s FY2026 annual filings say its AI decryptor builder will automate. Therefore, if the model works on live ransomware, NuRR could take on more cases at once, easing the capacity problem that cost Nubeva its biggest customer in 2023 (risk advisory firm Kroll).

Investor Letters

All letters

Free Recaps of the best new stock ideas, delivered every morning.

Read past recaps

October 2026 Random Ramblings

October 2026 market commentary covers SOLS’s cancelled merger, a hypothetical Starbucks-Chipotle deal, Russell 2000 weakness and AI…

SOLS $9.7B
Yet Another Value Podcast 81 clicks
BTU · long

Peabody Energy Corporation

Peabody Energy, ticker BTU, is a low-cost producer of thermal and metallurgical coal with mines in the United States and Australia.

BTU $3.1B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

Alarm.com: False Alarm?

Alarm.com, founded after CEO Steve Trundle’s bad home-security experience, has fallen from $105 in 2020 to about $55, testing whether…

ALRM $2.8B
TSOH Investment Research 1 click

A letter to founding members

Cannibal Stocks favors cash-generative companies that retire shares at low valuations, citing Dillard’s 80% share reduction and…

RIG $6.3B
Cannibal Stocks

Unpolished Thoughts on Stocks #1

Genius Sports aims to turn official sports data into AI-driven, real-time advertising, with media and ads already about 40% of revenue.

GENI $1.8B
Sylence Capital 2 clicks

Have a source we’re missing? Send your pick

Recent recaps

Latest recap

Wednesday, October 14 70 stock ideas
  • October 2026 Random Ramblings Yet Another Value Podcast
  • Visa: Unpacking The 7 Powers And Forward Valuation Ahead Of Q4 Earnings Seeking Alpha
Read the recap

All recaps

Publications we follow

Every publication on this site, hand-picked.

129 publications

Newsletters 107

YouTube 4

Blogs 17

Seeking Alpha 49 of 227

Nominate a publication

X accounts we follow

Every account on this site, hand-picked.

88 accounts
Nominate an account

Investor letters we follow

189 firms

Sectors

Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.

Anything we’re missing?

Send us a pick