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Sunday, November 15, 2026

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@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Six stocks I’m still following filed Q3 numbers: → $QXO: Operating cash flow was only ~$1M in Q3, down from $213M a year ago. → Boost Run $BRUN: Says it has secured $600M of non-dilutive project financing, but a Georgia delay leaves year-end ARR near my bear case. → Reviva $RVPH: Valued at 26.5% of its cash, but needs $50-55M for its second Phase 3 trial and FDA filing. → DigiPowerX $DGXX: ~$30M short of its ~$350M 2027 capex plan, even counting the $200M loan it hasn’t closed yet. → Agility Robotics $AGLT: Down 36.1% from its first-day close, with a little over two years of cash. → FORT Robotics’ SPAC $NTWO: 82% redeemed, and its price implies 36.7x FORT’s TTM revenue. So did the quarter change my call on any of the six? That’s what I answer in my new Q3 update, including whether I’m buying, selling, or holding each name.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

Passed on: - $TK: screens at net cash ≈ market cap, but that cash is TNK's. Parent cash plus its TNK stake is ~$1.01B vs a ~$1.23B market cap. Buy TNK directly. - $DFIN: ran to $68, and the SEC's semiannual-reporting proposal hits filing volume. - $RICK: NY AG indictment, CEO and CFO out. - $BAER: ~$15M of equity under ~$650M of debt and preferred. - $CMRE / $DAC: big backlogs, but contracted net earnings don't cover EV yet. - $MATW, $ACTG, $ARKR, $CVEO: FCF or leverage. - $GRND: not cheap.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$NMM ~$89.03 Navios Partners: containerships, drybulk and tankers, mostly on charter. ~$2.58B mkt cap at ~0.7x book, ~4x annualized earnings. Contracted revenue jumped from $4.4B to $5.0B in one quarter after $735M of new charters, and it runs through 2037. That's ~1.9x the market cap. It's shrinking the unit count. Units are down 2% in a year on a new $200M buyback ($12M used in Q3), and net debt fell $55M to ~$1.74B. The discount is about governance. The payout is $0.06/qtr, Frangou controls it, and $703M of newbuilds was just ordered. But mgmt said it will "recalibrate" return of capital in Q1, the first sign that could change. No AlphaSense expert or broker coverage in 3 months. Nobody's looking.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$TNK ~$89.43 Teekay Tankers runs 33 mid-size crude and product tankers, mostly spot. ~$3.10B mkt cap, $1.42B cash, no debt, ~$1.7B EV. First-half EPS was $10.87, already above all of 2025 ($10.10), and Q3 added $5.04. Q4 so far: Suezmax $272K/day and Aframax $208K/day, 30x+ its breakeven. Clarksons has year-end net cash at ~$53/sh. EV is only ~0.4x the value of the ships, so you're getting the fleet at ~40 cents on the dollar plus the cash. The catalyst: the board will consider a special dividend with Q4 results in February instead of May. The $0.25 base hasn't moved since 2023, so the pressure on the payout is all one way. It's also selling old ships at high prices (4 for $211M) and ordering newbuilds for 2030. Why rates could stay up: OECD inventories are at a 20-year low, the U.S. SPR is ~half its pre-2020 level, and the orderbook mostly just replaces old ships. Risks: rates mean-revert and Teekay Corp controls it. BofA raised 2026 EPS by $12 and still rates it Underperform.

Investor Letters

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MBGL · long

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