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Sunday, November 15, 2026

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@StableBread

Fajasy on X

The Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) delisted TOYO Co., Ltd’s $TOYO parent on September 26, partly over “deference” to the former chairman who still controls 59.8% of $TOYO. $TOYO’s governance traces back to Junsei Ryu, its Chairman and CEO until March 2026, who controlled 66.9% of $TOYO’s vote before the June offering, or 59.8% of today’s 42.7M shares by my count. He was also Representative Director, Chairman and CEO of Abalance until he gave up his representative role in March 2026. $TOYO’s 20-F calls Abalance its controlling shareholder and says Abalance’s board or president must approve $TOYO’s significant transactions, including investments above 5% of $TOYO’s total assets. As of June 30, that bar was $26.9M, which the $357M HJT cell plant $TOYO plans in Texas clears more than 13 times over. Abalance’s problems came to a head in 2026: → January 2026: The TSE fined Abalance ¥43.2M and, on January 31, designated its shares a “Security on Special Alert” over group governance and related-party controls. → July 31, 2026: The TSE moved Abalance to “Security Under Supervision.” → August 19, 2026: Abalance’s FY3/2026 results carried a going-concern warning, and its auditor disclaimed an opinion on its annual report. → September 26, 2026: The TSE delisted Abalance. The TSE’s stated reasons for the delisting say Abalance’s improvement plan didn’t address why its officers and employees stopped exercising independent judgment, which the exchange traced to “deference to the former Representative Director, Chairman and CEO and reluctance to challenge him.” That executive is Ryu, who held the title until March. The exchange also cited missing group-wide controls over deals where Abalance companies sold materials to outside processors and then bought the processed goods back. Put simply, some of Abalance’s overseas subsidiaries sold polysilicon to wafer makers and bought it back as wafers, and Abalance had to correct how it accounted for those deals in its FY3/2026 results. Abalance didn’t name those subsidiaries. $TOYO, for its part, buys polysilicon and gets its wafers from a “designated facility in Indonesia,” and neither company has said whether any of $TOYO’s transactions were among those corrected. So buying $TOYO means trusting Ryu, whose 59.8% stake outvotes all other holders combined, and a delisted parent with a going-concern warning to treat outside holders fairly.
@ParadisLabs

Paradis on X

$LITE shareholders should be annoyed... The 23.9% premium in the $MRVL deal is real on paper, but in dollars it's gone. 1. 4.5 $MRVL per $LITE = $1,132/share on 28 Oct = 23.9% above Lumentum's undisturbed $914. This is the 23.9% premium reported today. 2. Marvell has since fallen ~22% to $196.40 (Friday close). So 4.5 shares = ~$884 = 3.3% below Lumentum’s undisturbed price of $914. 3. The deal's $102.5B equity value is now ~$80B. 4. Lumentum fell ~8% in the same selloff to the ~$840s. 5. So even vs where Lumentum actually trades, the premium has shrunk from 23.9% to ~5%. I think Marvell needs to get back above ~$203 for Lumentum shareholders to see any premiums over the undisturbed price. It's essentially a premium paid in a currency (stock) that’s fallen 22%. Welcome any pushback on my napkin math calcs. By no means a comprehensive model.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Following the Lumentum / Marvell deal: My opinion is that independent Western laser players, like $AAOI, $COHR, and $SIVE became a lot more strategically valuable. $MTSI and $SMTC should get some attention too as emerging laser players in 2027. If I had to guess: 1. Companies competing against Marvell, or not in the $NVDA ecosystem bandwagon, such as $AMD, are likely going to rethink their relationship with $LITE. If getting bottlenecked by Nvidia capacity agreements wasn't enough... Incentives around qualifying + bringing up other laser players, seems very necessary now. Since you generally don't want competitors like Marvell to have influence or visibility over your roadmaps, IP, capacity, pricing, etc. even if there is a "firewall". 2. $MRVL acquiring Lumentum opened pandoras box in a way of acquiring a critical chokepoint all your competitors + buyers use. $LITE was used by your major hyperscalers and across AI supply chains. Now, your leaders might wonder if weaponizing capacity agreements might not be as effective.... If someone else can just buy the entire company. There's only a few major public merchant Western players out there, and I'm also sure many others will want to follow the Marvell / Broadcom route via vertical integration, given I think $MRVL saves around $1B+ in costs/year. So M&A premiums likely went up. $SMTC was actively looking to buy laser capacity via M&A so I'm sure they're looking at $SIVE given their 100M CW DFB laser expansion + tiny MC. $JBL also probably wants to vertically integrate down the road too so $SIVE is also an acquisition target for their 1.6T program. $AMD was looking for ELSFP + CW capacity given Nvidia bottlenecks, so I'm sure they've looked at $AAOI. can go on and on about other ASIC players (like in Taiwan) that likely are looking at vertical integration too. Since multiple players use a small subset of laser suppliers, if competitors just go ahead and buys them... There's a lot pressure to M&A for their own supply chain defensibility. TLDR: Independent laser suppliers should capture a material strategic revaluation since $MRVL + $LITE, sets a new precedent + implications. We'll see what happens.

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