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Saturday, November 14, 2026

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@SouthernValue95

SouthernValue on X

When I do AI supply and demand modeling, everything ex-SPCX generally fits together and makes sense and is reasonably well funded. No individual large build looks too excessive because, for the most part, large projects are pre sold before they are built, or at least before they are completed… Anthropic can fund its ambitions for the next few years pretty easily with ARR and cash on hand. Even OpenAI is sitting on a mountain of cash and can fund the majority of compute with ARR. The hyperscale clouds are allocating between internal, lab, and enterprise use cases. This changed w/ $SPCX who is trying to build ~40% of 2026 capacity next year but without a secured buyer. Just a massive bet that industry capacity plans will undershoot realized demand by a wide margin. This is the most obvious way this becomes a glut. And everything else will mostly be contracted, with spcx holding most of the bag. They also have BY FAR the most financial upside if conditions remain tight, because of their chosen path to live and die by the spot market. But I find it puzzling that markets have really not challenged them more, particularly as broadly the risk of a cyclical peak comes into focus. When parties as risk seeking as OpenAI @sama have called them speculative (one of only 2-3 potential buyers of SPCX capacity…). Also SPCX two existing customers are abundantly clear that they view their contracts as short-term / bridge capacity and intend to churn off as new cheaper capacity comes online at ~1/5 of the price.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

If someone asked me 10 years ago what I'd be doing in the future, Answering questions on Jensen + Spys banging each other and implications on the AI trade would not be in mind My response to that question is: how am i supposed to know? On AI trade implications: $NVDA probably wanted to sell more chips anyway (to China) for revenue and it's extremely unlikely this person had any effect on trade policies. The relationship might not even be true... anyway I'll wait until more news comes out.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

A $TSM Spokesperson has reportedly denied exploring 3D DRAM per Tom's Hardware. After a report yesterday from The Information stated TSMC's production plans were from $NVDA's request. The implications would have put TSMC in competition with $MU, SK Hynix, and Samsung and set off narratives about TSm disrupting the biggest memory makers. There's something frustrating with there's market moving headlines both ways. It just creates more confusion and volatility... Especially if something (like $NVDA CEO honeypot allegations) or the TSM report yesterday turns out untrue.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

A $TSM Spokesperson has reportedly denied exploring 3D DRAM per Tom's Hardware. After a report yesterday from The Information stated TSMC's production plans were from $NVDA's request. The implications would have put TSMC in competition with $MU, SK Hynix, and Samsung and set off narratives about TSm disrupting the biggest memory makers. There's something frustrating with there's market moving headlines both ways. It just creates more confusion and volatility... Especially if something (like $NVDA CEO honeypot allegations) or the TSM report yesterday turns out untrue.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

So two things: 1. I'm now fundamentally positive on $IREN post Mirantis acquisition and after their recent earnings. Their operating outlook and ability to finance has looked more compelling. 2. That doesn't always translate to appreciating share price and ROI to shareholders. I have caution regarding their existing $6B ATM, which now has $2.37B left (so they have been going through it). As well as CEO executive compensation, which I'd argue would be more beneficial if this were done through appreciating share prices rather than dilution. Obviously optics on their NBA Warriors deals are very bad while they're unprofitable... but I'd treat this as noise relative to the scale of the ATM overhang + executive comp. So a lot of weighing different float + market dynamics vs. operational business, but I'd argue this is something that still can be addressed.

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Is Nebius Fucked?

Nebius’ Q3 beat relied on $325 million of one-off partnership fees as it raised 2027 CapEx to $40–45 billion and may need $6–11 billion of…

NBIS $32B
Daniel Romero 6 clicks

Qualcomm Custom ASICs?

Qualcomm’s Alphawave SerDes, CPU cores and HBC could support custom AI ASICs as hyperscalers build heterogeneous fleets beyond GPUs.

QCOM $185B
Chipstrat 4 clicks

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