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Saturday, November 14, 2026

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Fajasy on X

I turned Toast’s $TOST 2027 framework into an adjusted EBITDA estimate, to see what the restaurant software and payments company trades at on next year’s numbers. Incoming CFO Michael Senno will own the 2027 numbers, and he already set the frame on the Q3 call. He said he’s “confident in the 20%+ framework” for recurring gross profit growth (Q4 is guided to 22-24%), but expects “very modest margin progression next year” after a ~36% adjusted EBITDA margin in 2026, since $TOST wants room to keep investing in its newer markets. Those newer markets (enterprise, international, and retail) are nearing $200M of ARR and doubling for a second straight year, per CEO Aman Narang, and Senno said the core business already earns margins over 40%. At $34.67/share, $TOST’s enterprise value is $18.3B ($20.1B market cap on 581M shares, less $1.89B of cash and marketable securities, with no debt), or 21.6x 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance. In my August 10 update, I said I’d add if a pullback took $TOST down to the high teens on forward EV/EBITDA. On the 2026 guide, that’s ~$29/share, which the stock briefly touched at the start of October. Reading Senno’s “very modest margin progression” as a margin near 2026’s ~36%, 20% recurring gross profit growth would mean ~$1.0B of 2027 adjusted EBITDA. So on 2027 numbers, the stock already trades at ~18x, in the high teens.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Quantum $QMCO, which restated its financials in May 2024 and again in August 2025, just filed a September-quarter 10-Q that no longer says when it’ll fix the gaps in its accounting controls, including one it expected to fix by September 30. $QMCO’s disclosure controls are still “not effective” because of material weaknesses (the most serious kind of gap in a company’s financial reporting controls) that “remain unremediated as of September 30, 2026.” The weaknesses cover revenue recognition, inventories, income taxes, and the control environment, which the June-quarter 10-Q described as too few qualified staff and too little monitoring. $QMCO said in that June-quarter 10-Q, filed August 11, that it expected to automate the dates on the schedules that set when service revenue is recognized “by the end of our second fiscal quarter,” which ended September 30. The September-quarter 10-Q only says $QMCO “continued to implement” controls over those schedules, without saying whether the automation is in place. Nor does it repeat the June-quarter 10-Q’s other target dates: December 31, 2026 for inventory controls, and March 31, 2027 for sales order entry and income taxes. During the quarter, $QMCO hired a chief accounting officer and a director of tax, and engaged an outside consulting firm to help design the fixes. Management still concluded that the financial statements “fairly present in all material respects” $QMCO’s results. In my October 28 update, I said I’d first watch whether this 10-Q arrived on time, left past quarters unrestated, and showed the service revenue fix $QMCO targeted for the September quarter. There was no late filing or restatement, which I said may push the multiple toward my bear case’s 1.2x, but the 10-Q doesn’t show the fix. So I’d rather see the December-quarter 10-Q, due February 9, 2027, confirm the service revenue fix and give new dates for the rest before taking $QMCO at its word on its controls.

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