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Saturday, November 14, 2026

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Fajasy on X

Boost Run $BRUN shows $218.6M of new GPU leases in Q3, and its September 30 lease schedule still implies a ~7% interest rate, the same as the June 30 schedule implied. $BRUN had to put $96.0M of its own cash up front on two of the three GPU leases it signed in Q3: → 36-month lease: $59.2M advance, then $2.7M/month. → 24-month lease: $36.8M first payment, then $4.3M/month. For reference, the $59.2M advance alone is more than the $39.4M of advances across all 34 GPU leases $BRUN signed in H1 2026. In Q3, $88.2M of warrant exercises covered most of the $109.8M of lease principal $BRUN paid, and cash still rose $36.9M to $170.0M ($157.0M unrestricted). All 11.4M warrants are now exercised, and GPU lease payments due from January to December 2027 rose to $186.2M as of September 30, from $103.5M as of June 30. The two big Q3 leases alone add $6.9M/month of payments in 2027. The ~$221M of 2027 payments I counted across $BRUN's signed commitments in my October 19 update is now ~$307M, before the five equipment leases $BRUN signed in October, which require $83.1M of payments over the next two years. Four of those five are six-month leases that end with $39.6M of final payments, 59.8% of their $66.2M of total payments. Against those payments, $BRUN says $482M of customer prepayments are due as upcoming projects deploy. So 2027 now runs on (1) those prepayments arriving on schedule and (2) monthly billings, since the warrant cash won't repeat.
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Fajasy on X

Boost Run $BRUN granted 6.23M RSUs in Q3, 7.4% of its 84.2M shares outstanding, and will expense $103.4M for them over a weighted-average 3 years, a cost its adjusted EBITDA excludes. The 6.23M includes the 4.59M granted to the CFO, CTO, and COO on September 29, and the 10-Q doesn't name who got the other 1.64M. Q3's stock comp was only $0.25M, since most of the RSUs came on September 29. $BRUN's adjusted EBITDA adds stock comp back, so from Q4 it will exclude ~$8.6M/quarter of RSU expense on average, equal to 47.9% of Q3's $18.0M of adjusted EBITDA. And $BRUN's 2026 equity plan still has 2,986,298 shares left to grant, another 3.5% of the shares outstanding. The bear, base, and bull cases in my October 19 update counted 88.8M fully diluted shares, including only the executives' 4.59M RSUs. The full 6.23M takes the count to 90.4M, which trims each case's per-share value by 1.8%.

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Quick note on LSAK and GRPN

Lesaka expects its Bank Zero acquisition to close by end-January 2027, though it could still close this calendar year.

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Stock Thoughts

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