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Saturday, November 14, 2026

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@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

I listened to a Bill Gurley @bgurley interview on @TKPPodcast, great interview by the way Bill. He compared the US AI labs to farmers who go to the market and just trade goods, whereas in China the farmers go to the market, trade goods, and are forced to share best practices and help each other implement them. In his words: “The competitive dynamic in China is more intense. Because it is more intense, everyone has chosen to go open source. That creates a system that is capable of innovating far faster than the competitive system we have here.” China’s way results in exponential learning and growth, which is pretty clear. Charlie Munger was a notorious China bull late in life: “The reason that I invested in China is I get so much better companies at so much lower prices.” Sentiment has also got to account for something. China’s CSI 300 just confirmed a bear market, down 20.2% from its June peak, and 19 years later it has still never closed above its 2007 high. On October 23 the Hang Seng Tech index fell 5% to a two-year low and the CSI AI index fell 3.3% in a single day. I am expressing this macro view through a bottoms-up investment I found: a shareholder-friendly, founder-led company paying an 11%+ dividend and authorized to buy back about 3% of its market cap. Revenue grew 33% in the first half of 2026, net income grew 34%, and paying users went from 3.8 million in 2021 to 18.2 million in 2025, a 48% CAGR. It has been preparing for AI since the beginning. The founder: “From the very first day of the company’s founding, we had our own AI algorithm engineers and big data team… we began applying these cutting-edge technologies as early as 2019.” Today about 70% of staff are R&D, AI-generated code is approaching half of all R&D code, and net margins run near 30%. All for the grand price of about 2.5x earnings, with a ~$494M market cap sitting below roughly $630M of unencumbered cash. Did I mention there are forced sellers selling for completely non-economic reasons because they are VC investors? VCs including Hike, Northern Light, Qiming, SIG and Sequoia China owned about 55% of the company after the IPO. Qiming alone has sold 43% of its stake in nine months, from 19.4M shares to 11.1M, per its 13G filings. Here is my writeup on Yuanbao $YB:
@valuedontlie

Colin King on X

Ugly chart at $APTV Maybe one of my favorite setups right now despite "tough industry" dynamics... Lapping one-time VGNT spin costs so FCF should jump to $1B+ next year (on $8B market cap = 12.5% FCF yield) and committed to buyback stock with 100% of FCF through 2027 Assuming no operational/industry improvement, it's not hard to get $7-8 EPS by 2028 (vs. $5.70 in '26) As a bonus, this management team has done 2 spins in 10 years and wouldn't be surprised if they spin the (better) engineered components business

Investor Letters

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IEH Corporation: Research Note

IEH Corporation posted Q2 revenue growth of 51% to $10.7 million and a record $56 million backlog, led by defense and medical demand.

IEHC $78M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 2 clicks

Qure Anniversary Update

UniQure’s Huntington’s disease BLA has a May 1, 2027 priority-review date, with an FDA advisory committee expected in late first quarter.

QURE $1.7B
Triple S Special Situations Investing 2 clicks

Big Short: Fidelity & Guaranty

F&G’s main insurer held $66.5 billion of assets against $1.38 billion of statutory capital, while private credit, reinsurance dependence…

FG $3.1B
Mispriced Assets 5 clicks

Peloton: Beyond The Bike

Peloton’s connected-fitness subscribers fell 9% year over year to 2.475 million, with another high-single-digit holiday decline forecast as…

PTON $2.5B
TSOH Investment Research 4 clicks
MONOY · long

Monotaro CO LTD

MonotaRO, traded as MONOY in the U.S. and 3064 in Japan, is a Japanese MRO distributor recommended as a long.

MONOY $7.4B
Value Investors Club 1 click

Cat-Scratch Fervo

Fervo Energy raised $2 billion in its May IPO, then fell nearly 70% below issue price after a Morpheus short report, despite targeting 1 GW…

FRVO $3.8B
Doomberg 5 clicks

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