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Saturday, November 14, 2026

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Fajasy on X

Agility Robotics $AGLT, the maker of the Digit humanoid robot, now expects early access to Digit 5, its next-generation model, to begin in H1 2027. Digit 5 would reach early customers in December, President Daniel Diez told Forbes in August. In my September 6 deep dive, I called the December date the one to watch. Agility gave the new timeline in its Q3 financials, filed November 13 alongside the final 10-Q of Churchill Capital Corp XI, the SPAC it merged with on November 4. Holders of 61.5% of the SPAC's public shares redeemed them for ~$10.29/share, taking ~$261.8M out of the trust. So Agility netted ~$334.1M from the deal, plus the $100M of SAFEs it raised in July. In the S-4 (the merger filing), the no-redemption case came to ~$576M. The Q3 financials also show: → Cash: $64.9M as of September 30, down from $103.0M at the end of 2025, even after the $100M of SAFEs. → Burn: $131.6M of operating cash outflow in the first nine months, up 87% y/y, plus $6.8M of capex. → Revenue: $0.36M in the first nine months, down 79% y/y, since 2025's one-time robot sales didn't repeat. Add the deal's ~$334.1M to September 30 cash, and Agility has ~$399M. At the first nine months' pace of ~$184M/year, including capex, the ~$399M lasts a little over two years, with Digit 5's rollout now running through 2027. The closing release did add two customer updates: $GXO, the logistics company, will deploy Digit at two more U.S. sites starting in early 2027, and $AGCO, the farm equipment maker, will pilot Digit in 2027, with no order sizes given. At $7.36/share, $AGLT's market cap is ~$2.26B on ~307M shares, counting ~61.0M options and RSUs and 4.2M warrants. My deep dive valued the 1,000-robot Digit 5 order book alone at $4.69-7.66/share, at 10-20x its ~$100M of yearly revenue plus cash. Redone with the actual cash and share count, the range is closer to $4.55-7.81/share, and $AGLT now trades inside the range. $AGLT also trades 28% below the ~$10.29/share redeeming holders received, and below the ~$7.72/share the July SAFE investors paid. My deep dive said I'd only consider buying after the post-close washout, once the lock-up supply clears and Digit 5's ramp is clearer. The washout came, but the other two conditions haven't: 1) Lock-up supply: Agility's existing holders and the sponsor stay locked up until early May 2027, and the PIPE's 20.1M shares, more than the ~16M public shares left after redemptions, are being registered for resale. 2) Digit 5: Early access now starts in H1 2027 instead of December, with wider availability over the following 6-9 months.
@ACapitalLP

A Capital on X

Moves like this $ADIG should not happen absent some genuinely unforeseen event or force majeure. If a public company is even remotely transparent with investors, expectations shouldn’t be so far removed from reality that a single earnings report wipes out 40–50% of its market cap. Granted, this is probably more common in smaller companies with limited analyst coverage, but if I were a public company CEO and this happened on my watch, I’d consider it a serious failure of investor communication and expectation management…

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