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Saturday, November 14, 2026

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Q3 Earnings Updates

Q3 updates cover Crocs, Entravision and Fiserv beats, coal and oil weakness, and Xerox’s sharp decline, testing the underlying cases for recently featured stocks.

CROX $7.5B
Hidden Rock Capital's Newsletter 1 click

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Agility Robotics $AGLT, the maker of the Digit humanoid robot, now expects early access to Digit 5, its next-generation model, to begin in H1 2027. Digit 5 would reach early customers in December, President Daniel Diez told Forbes in August. In my September 6 deep dive, I called the December date the one to watch. Agility gave the new timeline in its Q3 financials, filed November 13 alongside the final 10-Q of Churchill Capital Corp XI, the SPAC it merged with on November 4. Holders of 61.5% of the SPAC's public shares redeemed them for ~$10.29/share, taking ~$261.8M out of the trust. So Agility netted ~$334.1M from the deal, plus the $100M of SAFEs it raised in July. In the S-4 (the merger filing), the no-redemption case came to ~$576M. The Q3 financials also show: → Cash: $64.9M as of September 30, down from $103.0M at the end of 2025, even after the $100M of SAFEs. → Burn: $131.6M of operating cash outflow in the first nine months, up 87% y/y, plus $6.8M of capex. → Revenue: $0.36M in the first nine months, down 79% y/y, since 2025's one-time robot sales didn't repeat. Add the deal's ~$334.1M to September 30 cash, and Agility has ~$399M. At the first nine months' pace of ~$184M/year, including capex, the ~$399M lasts a little over two years, with Digit 5's rollout now running through 2027. The closing release did add two customer updates: $GXO, the logistics company, will deploy Digit at two more U.S. sites starting in early 2027, and $AGCO, the farm equipment maker, will pilot Digit in 2027, with no order sizes given. At $7.36/share, $AGLT's market cap is ~$2.26B on ~307M shares, counting ~61.0M options and RSUs and 4.2M warrants. My deep dive valued the 1,000-robot Digit 5 order book alone at $4.69-7.66/share, at 10-20x its ~$100M of yearly revenue plus cash. Redone with the actual cash and share count, the range is closer to $4.55-7.81/share, and $AGLT now trades inside the range. $AGLT also trades 28% below the ~$10.29/share redeeming holders received, and below the ~$7.72/share the July SAFE investors paid. My deep dive said I'd only consider buying after the post-close washout, once the lock-up supply clears and Digit 5's ramp is clearer. The washout came, but the other two conditions haven't: 1) Lock-up supply: Agility's existing holders and the sponsor stay locked up until early May 2027, and the PIPE's 20.1M shares, more than the ~16M public shares left after redemptions, are being registered for resale. 2) Digit 5: Early access now starts in H1 2027 instead of December, with wider availability over the following 6-9 months.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

Yes and no lol, valuation and dividend yield are attractive currently (I added a few days ago ~$88), macro continues to trend in the right direction, I do hate $PDD just entered Kazakhstan, BUT what I surface level read is they can coexist well and $KSPI has a different approach than them from someone who I think is smart, pretty sure was @Benceno88 if you may elaborate friend. Also $KSPI management team will continue to find ways to pull rabbits out of the hat and grow within KZ, the most recent grocery vertical being an example
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

DigiPowerX $DGXX said on October 13 that it "did not issue any shares" under its ATM program in Q3. $DGXX's Q3 10-Q, filed November 13, shows 2.85M shares issued for cash in Q3 for $11.3M, and counts them among the 30.8M shares it sold through the ATM in the first nine months of 2026. The share count rose 46% this year, from 69.4M at the end of 2025 to 101.4M as of November 12. The 10-Q also shows three details the Q3 earnings release left out: 1) Prepayment: Cerebras $CBRS, the AI chipmaker that's the tenant at $DGXX's Columbiana data center campus in Alabama, paid a $12M upfront charge in Q3 for building Phase 1. The charge can be refunded, less what's been spent on finished construction, in some cases before Phase 1 starts, including if $DGXX misses the final delivery date. 2) Spending: $145.5M went into property, equipment, and equipment deposits in the first nine months, paid for with $170.8M of net share sales. 3) GPUs: Equipment deposits rose to $23.9M from $8.5M at the end of 2025, and the 10-Q mentions next-generation $NVDA Vera Rubin systems $DGXX has "committed to purchase," without an amount. $DGXX's Q3 revenue rose 85% q/q to $12.2M, but its $1.0M of net income leaned on $8.6M of gains on its crypto and warrants. Cash was $95.2M and bitcoin and ether were $24.5M as of September 30. $DGXX also expects to close a $200M loan syndicated by Goldman Sachs $GS in Q4 2026 to finish Columbiana, with an unsecured $DGXX guarantee until construction is done. Even with the cash, crypto, and loan, $DGXX is ~$30M short of its 2027 plan (~$350M of capex, mostly for ~10 MW of AI inference capacity and Columbiana's Phase 2) before any Q4 2026 spending. $DGXX expects customer deposits and prepayments to be a main source of funding, and it has already sold $174.7M of the $175M its ATM prospectus covers. At $2.28/share, $DGXX's market cap is ~$231M, an EV of ~$112M after its cash and crypto. If Phase 1 is ready on December 15 as planned, Cerebras starts paying in January 2027, and its $12M prepayment can no longer be refunded.

Investor Letters

All letters

The Spy Who Shagged The Market

Nvidia’s leadership scandal puts its AI-market role under scrutiny, with comparisons to AIG’s pre-GFC liquidity influence.

AIG $43B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 4 clicks

Is Nebius Fucked?

Nebius’ Q3 beat relied on $325 million of one-off partnership fees as it raised 2027 CapEx to $40–45 billion and may need $6–11 billion of…

NBIS $32B
Daniel Romero 6 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (11/13/2026)

Tripadvisor’s CEO and CFO will depart after weak Q3 results, while Roblox’s CEO discusses AI and Berkshire repurchases $9.6 billion of…

RBLX $36B
TSOH Investment Research 3 clicks
NEXPF · long

Nexi SpA

Nexi, continental Europe’s largest merchant acquirer, is presented as a long investment using normalized EPS and EBIT that exclude…

NEXPF $5.8B
Value Investors Club

Bye the Index

Nasdaq’s QQQ amassed $456 billion through aggressive marketing, turning index licensing into a larger earnings source than trading, data…

NDAQ $60B
Net Interest 1 click

Portfolio Update April 2026

Portfolio update sells Amazon, adds Floor & Decor, and projects 6.5% annual market returns, with a base case of negative 0.89% from…

FND $5B
D Invests

April Earnings Update

Crocs raised 2026 EPS guidance to $13.20-$13.75 and bought back $73.6 million of stock, while Huntsman, Pitney Bowes and Alpha…

CROX $7.5BPBI $2.1B
Hidden Rock Capital's Newsletter

PayPal tries again (and again)

Stripe’s startup-focused product sprawl contrasts with Adyen’s enterprise restraint; despite 20% more payment volume and faster growth,…

PYPL $49B
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