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Friday, November 13, 2026

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Nvidia’s Future | My Question Marks

Nvidia’s future is framed around alleged China GPU diversion, tighter export controls and supply-chain risk after Jensen Huang’s claimed resignation.

NVDA $4T
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@ActAccordingly

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@LizAnnSonders has been talking about this for a while, but as we get closer to 2027, perhaps one of the biggest issues for the market at large is earnings growth deceleration. Companies start to beat by thinner margins and investors begin to wonder if earnings growth estimates are too high. The opposite dynamic has been the case for the past 2-3 years in the tech sector where earnings momentum has been spectacular. If you're looking for a playbook for tech stocks, I'll point you to this investing bible from Dan Benton on tech stocks. It's as good a rubric as you will ever find. He provided an update to his "rules" for the 2026 landscape. Value investing in tech rarely works. Pointing to the low P/E in $NVDA currently is a fool's errand. If you want to be long, you better have a strong view on FY28 estimates. PERIOD. The multiple reflects that people think estimates for FY28 could be too high. There is no margin for error in the valuation of $NVDA currently because the variance of outcomes as it relates to estimates is incredibly high. Is it cheap in that context? Rules 1 and 2: 1) Sell technology stocks when estimates are being reduced 2) Buy technology stocks only for positive earnings surprises What we're seeing right now in tech is a heightened level of concern about risks to 2H27 estimates and 2028. Even if the $ANT IPO prices well, how do these earnings concerns get resolved?
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

My personal opinion is that Kress leadership is negative for $NVDA centric ecosystems and its financing. Companies like $COHR that supply everyone, with long term visibility are more isolated. As for some of the commentary: Kress reportedly “challenged some of Huang’s proposed investments in customers, including deals involving Lambda (Neocloud)” Jensen later called her “A deer in the headlights”. And said she was “A reporting CFO”, not someone who is able to make strategic decisions… In regards to decisions made where Nvidia could build a moat against hyperscaler diversification. Reports have also said CSP executives have now considered $AMD and $GOOGL TPUs following Jensen’s departure. But didn’t do so earlier in fears of retaliation from Jensen Huang.

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