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Friday, November 13, 2026

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TSOH Weekly Roundup (11/13/2026)

Tripadvisor’s CEO and CFO will depart after weak Q3 results, while Roblox’s CEO discusses AI and Berkshire repurchases $9.6 billion of stock.

TRIP $855M
TSOH Investment Research 2 clicks

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

From $3.83/share, you’re risking a $1.62 loss (-42.3%) on TOYO Co., Ltd $TOYO in my bear case for a $10.90 gain (+284.6%) in my bull case. I apply 2.0-4.0x EBITDA, well below First Solar $FSLR’s 6.7x, for the trade and governance risks. At the 3.0x midpoint, today’s $137.2M EV implies $TOYO earns just $45.7M/year, 29.2% of its TTM figure. How much of the $156.4M of TTM EBITDA lasts depends on Commerce, U.S. customs (CBP), and $TOYO’s Section 232 term sheet (its request for relief from the new 15% tariff on imported cells). Each case values $TOYO at the end of 2027 on that year’s EBITDA, since 2027 is the first full year under the new tariff and Commerce’s final determination is due ~May 13, 2027. I leave out the 45X tax credits, which $TOYO also leaves out of its forecasts, and the HJT cell plant it plans in Texas, which won’t produce before 2028. Each case adds today’s $26.4M of net cash to 2027 EBITDA times the multiple and divides by 42.7M shares. Bear Case ($2.21, -42.3%) The bear case assumes Commerce’s preliminary determination (its first ruling, due ~December 14) covers Ethiopian cells without the certification path $TOYO asked for, CBP keeps detaining shipments, and Commerce doesn’t approve $TOYO’s Section 232 term sheet. That means Ethiopia’s cells stop reaching U.S. buyers in 2027, which implies 2027 EBITDA of $34.0M, what $TOYO earned in Q2 2026 alone. I apply a 2.0x multiple, under a third of First Solar’s 6.7x, for a value of $2.21/share. Base Case ($6.38, +66.6%) The base case assumes Commerce lets cells made with non-Chinese wafers through by its May 2027 final determination, but CBP’s reviews and the inquiry keep Ethiopia’s U.S. sales below their H1 2026 pace until then. That implies 2027 EBITDA of $82.1M, the same as H1 2026 alone, or 52.5% of the TTM figure. I apply a 3.0x multiple, under half of First Solar’s 6.7x, for a value of $6.38/share. Bull Case ($14.73, +284.6%) The bull case assumes Commerce’s preliminary determination clears cells made with non-Chinese wafers, CBP releases $TOYO’s shipments, and Commerce approves its Section 232 term sheet, so Ethiopia’s cells reach U.S. buyers at the H2 2025-H1 2026 pace again. That implies 2027 EBITDA of $156.4M, equal to the TTM figure. I apply a 4.0x multiple, still well below First Solar’s 6.7x, for a value of $14.73/share after the warrants are exercised.
@DOMOCAPITAL 2 clicks

DOMO Capital Management, LLC on X

For those that missed the Gabelli conference yesterday, the $MNRO CFO had this to say when asked about why they went forward with the Ares financing (TLDR: They are selling the company soon): "We think that Ares is a great partner for us. It provides us a lot of flexibility to operate our business, both from a covenant standpoint, but also doing it with a partner who has experience in the auto aftermarket, and also provides a very sophisticated and tailored private credit solution for us. We had plenty of options as we looked to refinance the credit facility, including our more traditional bank lenders and various different private lenders, but ultimately Ares provided us with the best solution for what we felt were our needs. And our needs really were focused on creating a stable financing backdrop for us over our planning horizon, enabling us to not only execute our growth strategy, but providing flexibility for us to explore a wide range of the alternatives that we're currently evaluating. So we think that this credit facility accomplishes all of those things."

Investor Letters

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IEH Corporation: Research Note

IEH Corporation posted Q2 revenue growth of 51% to $10.7 million and a record $56 million backlog, led by defense and medical demand.

IEHC $78M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 1 click

Qure Anniversary Update

UniQure’s Huntington’s disease BLA has a May 1, 2027 priority-review date, with an FDA advisory committee expected in late first quarter.

QURE $1.7B
Triple S Special Situations Investing 2 clicks

Big Short: Fidelity & Guaranty

F&G’s main insurer held $66.5 billion of assets against $1.38 billion of statutory capital, while private credit, reinsurance dependence…

FG $3.1B
Mispriced Assets 4 clicks

Peloton: Beyond The Bike

Peloton’s connected-fitness subscribers fell 9% year over year to 2.475 million, with another high-single-digit holiday decline forecast as…

PTON $2.5B
TSOH Investment Research 3 clicks
MONOY · long

Monotaro CO LTD

MonotaRO, traded as MONOY in the U.S. and 3064 in Japan, is a Japanese MRO distributor recommended as a long.

MONOY $7.4B
Value Investors Club

Cat-Scratch Fervo

Fervo Energy raised $2 billion in its May IPO, then fell nearly 70% below issue price after a Morpheus short report, despite targeting 1 GW…

FRVO $3.8B
Doomberg 5 clicks

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