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Thursday, November 12, 2026

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@StableBread 2 clicks

Fajasy on X

$ATII now $NANO... Forge Nano completed its de-SPAC merger and will list on NASDAQ on October 22, 2026. The merged company will receive $100M from the PIPE investor, who buys 2.97M shares, 7.03M pre-funded warrants (effectively shares), and 15M warrants at $10. An additional warrant reset could add more dilution if the stock is below $10 after six months, with a floor of $7.28 if a $200M debt deal is secured. Over 22 million SPAC shares were redeemed for $238.4M (approx. $10.73/share), leaving only $8.4M in the trust account for the combined company! Not the greatest as this significantly limits the cash available for operations and growth. On the other hand, the company has expanded its Taiwan semiconductor footprint, demonstrated a 1,000:1 coating demo, deeper Samsung SDI ties, a pharma JV with Nanexa, and broke ground on its North Carolina battery gigafactory. Wrote a deep dive here couple months ago btw:
@AsifSuria

Asif Suria on X

"We believe mgmt. wants to make sure it gets credit for that ramp, which could happen by letting the next 1-4 quarters play out." Management at $LION has been deeply entrenched and the company has become an "activist black hole". Carl Icahn's protege Mark Rachesky disappeared into it and it also swallowed our former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. At least after Mnuchin got involved, we managed to get rid of the dual class structure and Starz $STRZ was spun out. Like @valuedontlie I should have doubled down on Starz instead of $LION. Still long Lionsgate Studios and still willing to be patient but it feels like Feltheimer has perfected the art of moving the goal post.
@TimyanBankAlert 4 clicks

Timyan Bank Alert on X

$PLQC -
@StableBread 4 clicks

Fajasy on X

“We are in active discussions with some of the largest GPU consumers in the world, with requirements ranging from 10,000-50,000 GPUs. Those discussions are not yet contracts, and we will announce them only when they are.” That’s what Boost Run $BRUN CEO Andrew Karos said on the Q2 call. None of my bear, base, or bull cases considers a contract with one of those buyers. At Thinking Machines’ $3.59/GPU-hour, a single 10,000-GPU contract would bring in $314.5M/year, 78.6% of the $400M 2026 target. Karos also said $BRUN is procuring another $4-5B of computing hardware from multiple manufacturers. If all of it were rented out on three-year contracts at 1.4x TCV-to-capex (contract value divided by what the GPUs cost), the hardware would bring in $1.9-2.3B/year, 4.7-5.8x the 2026 target. But if lessors fund 79.5% of the purchases, as they did in H1 2026, $BRUN would also take on $3.2-4.0B of new lease debt. So how $BRUN finances the procurement decides how much of the $1.9-2.3B reaches shareholders.

Investor Letters

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💥Tead-ering💥

Teads’ revenue fell 26% and its stock dropped 38% as Google AI summaries cut publisher referral traffic, worsening losses and straining its…

TEAD $18MGUTS $12M
PETITION 2 clicks

Lion Copper: Initiation Report

Lion Copper targets 2030 Nevada copper production at Yerington, with Rio Tinto’s Nuton funding its 2027 feasibility study under a 65%…

LCU $71M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 3 clicks

Seed Corn

Chiron’s failed $49 million Beaumont sale and $178 million Pinnacle acquisition leave XRN with $70 million of liquidity and medical-office…

XRN $391M
Orphan REITs 3 clicks
NGVC · long

Natural Grocers Vitamin Ctge

Natural Grocers (NGVC) returned to $27.80 after a prior long entry at $21 and exit recommendation at $46.

NGVC $672M
Value Investors Club

Post Q3 EVC Update

EVC's Q3 update cites $30 million for a single station, a broadcast-business sale and stronger positioning for 2027.

EVC $920M
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 26 clicks

Entravision Q3 Update

Entravision’s Q3 ad-tech revenue reached $177.2 million, up 133% year over year, while total revenue rose 88% to $226.3 million and diluted…

EVC $920M
The Value Road 4 clicks

GREAT DEC-TECTIVE WORK

Diversified Energy reported $255.6 million of “true” nine-month free cash flow, while its $1.8 billion Birch acquisition would shift…

DEC $972M
The Oak Bloke 4 clicks

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