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Thursday, November 12, 2026

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Fajasy on X

Elmet $ELMT, which makes tungsten and molybdenum parts for U.S. missiles and jets, saw its main division's gross margin rise to 31.8% in Q3 from 20.1% a year earlier, and management credits the jump mainly to how it bought and priced tungsten during Q1 2026's price spike. Revenue rose 55.6% to a record $79.6M, and tungsten products went from 14.8% of $ELMT's shipments in Q3 2025 to 33.6% in Q3 2026, which the 10-Q attributes to (1) price increases tied to higher input costs and (2) more volume from aerospace and defense customers. Meanwhile, $ELMT's microwave products division, which makes radio-frequency systems rather than tungsten parts, grew revenue just 4.4%, and its gross margin fell to 26.1% from 30.7%. $ELMT values its inventory on a first-in, first-out (FIFO) and average-cost basis, so Q3's cost of goods sold still reflected tungsten bought earlier in the run-up, while $ELMT's selling prices had already risen with the market. Its $152.8M of inventory as of October 2, up from $69.7M as of December 31, equals ~8 months of Q3's cost of goods sold, so most of what's on hand was bought after prices took off. Since then, tungsten prices have stalled: European ammonium paratungstate (APT), the traded form of tungsten, was quoted at $2,500-3,100 per metric ton unit (MTU, 10 kg of tungsten trioxide) in the week to November 5, per Shanghai Metals Market, vs. $2,900-3,100 on September 10. Q3's adjusted EBITDA margin was 21.3%, up from 12.0% in H1 2026. Unless tungsten climbs again, I'd treat part of the jump as a timing gain that fades as inventory bought at 2026 prices flows through. In my July 2 write-up, I picked $ELMT as the safest way to own China's tungsten squeeze, since it makes the parts instead of mining the ore. Q3 shows $ELMT's margins still move with the tungsten price, just with a lag. $ELMT's own 2031 plan assumes APT at $1,500/MTU, 40-52% below the November 5 quote.
@AsifSuria

Asif Suria on X

The acquisition I have been asked the most about in the last couple of months is Western Union's $WU acquisition of International Money Express $IMXI Instead of responding to emails privately, I figured I would share some thoughts here. The deal in question is the $16 per share all cash acquisition of $IMXI by $WU that was announced on August 10, 2025 at a premium of over 72%. The stock currently trades well below the pre-deal price. There was no pre-deal rumor with this one. The spread/discount on this deal was initially massive (41%) because New York was withholding regulatory approval. The deal had already cleared federal antitrust. Then California came along and decided to review the transaction for a second time. This is the big holdup at this point and reminds me of the deal for Genworth Financial $GNW, which finally fell apart four years after it was announced. With $IMXI there were concerns that Western Union might not file for federal clearance (HSR) a second time after the first one expired a full year later. But Western Union in early October decided to file again and the spread recovered for a bit. The concern in the last few days and the double digit decline in $IMXI today is related to the outside date for the deal expiring today. The outside date (unless extended) is the absolutely drop dead date by which the companies have to complete the deal or they can walk. If Western Union decides today to extend the outside date, the stock will most likely rebound sharply even if California approval is still pending. Overall I don't participate in these kinds of situations but if were possible to hedge additional downside through put options that don't have massive premiums (they often do), this could turn out into a trade with low downside and high upside. My subjective probability that Western Union extends the date is 65%. The price action today in both $IMXI and $WU points to the extension not coming through. Obviously not investment advice and I have no position. I am wrong often.

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