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Thursday, November 12, 2026

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@StableBread

Fajasy on X

By my numbers, Magna Mining $MGMNF (TSX: $NICU) is worth CAD$0.88-3.08/share before restart capital, depending mostly on Levack, its flagship mine. Here’s what the stock is worth under four Levack outcomes at Q2 margins, before restart capital (the upfront spending to rebuild and reopen the mine): 1) Levack worth nothing: CAD$0.88-1.09/share from cash, McCreedy West (the producing mine), and Crean Hill (the permitted nickel mine), 45-56% below the CAD$1.98 share price (October 23 close). 2) Levack at McCreedy West’s scale: 17M lbs/year is worth ~US$114M, which makes the stock worth CAD$1.35-1.56/share, 21-32% below CAD$1.98. 3) Levack at its study’s plan: The October 7 preliminary economic assessment (PEA) plans 36.8M lbs/year from mid-2028 to 2035, worth ~US$246M, which makes the stock worth CAD$1.90-2.12/share, 4% below to 7% above CAD$1.98. 4) Levack at the top of CEO Jason Jessup’s range (3x McCreedy West): 54M lbs/year is worth ~US$361M, which makes the stock worth ~CAD$2.59/share (+31%) with McCreedy West and Crean Hill at the top of my ranges. With a 10% higher realized price, Levack rises to ~US$479M and the stock to ~CAD$3.08 (+56%). The PEA’s CAD$70.1M of initial capital would take ~CAD$0.21/share off the last three cases, but pre-commercial cash flow and tax credits cut the net funding need to CAD$8.6M (~CAD$0.03/share). On the upside, SCP Resource Finance, a mining-focused investment bank, put a CAD$5.10 target on the stock (+158%) in its April 14 note, before Alpayana, a Peruvian mining group, bought 62.4M new shares at CAD$2.25. Canaccord Genuity $CCORF, a Canadian investment bank, and Desjardins, a Quebec-based financial cooperative, also cover the stock, and both advised Magna on the Alpayana deal. Reaching SCP’s CAD$5.10 would demand ~US$964M from Levack and the rest, ~3.9x Levack’s value at the PEA’s output and Q2 margins. Getting there takes (1) ore from R2, a high-grade zone at Levack, (2) higher metal prices, (3) better margins at Levack than at McCreedy West, or a strong mix of the three.
@leevalueroach

Lee Roach on X

Clearwater Paper $CLW is a sitting duck for an aggressive activist. Stock is down 30% today. Management has zero at risk capital and all of the shares they own were given to them. No insider buys and only sells. Then this Stanford goofy comes in and buys their Augusta Mill for a ridiculously stupid valuation. He spent shareholders capital at the peak of the cycle for this capex pig at $1,184/ton. This mill has been a problem since day one and now is driving the stock down 30% today because they have to spend even more money on downtime for this POS. And then Mr. Arsen puts this POS in his header on LinkedIn. Only way they can realize value for this is by selling entire company or literally Arsen changing his name to Arson and torching this thing to the ground. The only thing Arsen is doing is torching shareholder capital here. There is no one stopping an activist here imo. Management owns 2% of the shares all from awards. No open market buys from insiders, only sells. Shareholders are visibly unhappy with say on pay support falling four years in a row and 2026 equity pay passed with only 54.5%. There is also no poison pill, all eight seats are up at the 2027 meeting and there is a fat change in control so management will get paid if you can get this dog shit sold. Also bank debt can be prepaid at par and that won't block a buyer. Suzano was exploring a bid in 2024 and Koch/Georgia-Pacific are logical buyers. Idea is to buy all the dog shit $CLW owns and shut it down and it fixes the oversupply in the market. Activist playbook is to buy a big block, flip the board, run a sales process and focus on capital discipline. I think you could sell this for $560/ton which is around $31/share, more than 2x current valuation. Management has blown their entire load on this dumb Augusta facility at the peak and it continues to cost shareholders who have at risk capital money. Management are employees who get paid no matter what happens. Activists should apply here. Fat pitch imo.

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