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Thursday, November 12, 2026

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Peloton: Beyond The Bike

Peloton’s connected-fitness subscribers fell 9% year over year to 2.475 million, with another high-single-digit holiday decline forecast as management pursues a turnaround.

PTON $2.6B
TSOH Investment Research 2 clicks

From X

@Adam_Wyden 1 click

Adam D. Wyden on X

$DRVN Full year numbers DIDNT CHANGE in our view. They mentioned restatement costs of at least $50mm and the midpoint of restatement before was 40... My guess is incremental restatement cost is 10-20.. So if the restatement is high might have even been a beat... Take 5 comp was 4.9 pct and holding two year stack in 4q would imply 8.5 pct... this seems like a kitchen sink to me. Franchise brands and auto glass both look good too.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Management at TOYO Co., Ltd $TOYO won’t put a number on H2 2026 beyond “positive EBITDA,” after EBITDA fell to $34.0M in Q2 from $48.1M in Q1. $TOYO’s H1 2026 results show both its earnings power and the June break: → Revenue: $261.0M, up 87.6% y/y, but Q2’s $118.2M was down 17.2% from Q1, as cell sales fell 46.4% q/q. → Gross margin: 32.5%, up from 16.6%. Q2’s 31.3% compared with 20.9% a year earlier, and the 6-K credits the increase to “increase in provision of OEM services.” → Net income: $45.8M, or $1.20/diluted share, up from $2.5M, with Q2 at $17.4M. → EBITDA: $82.1M, with $48.1M in Q1 and $34.0M in Q2. → Cash flow: $61.4M from operations, less $27.8M of capex, for $33.7M of FCF. → Volumes: 2.61 GW of cells (1.45 GW in Q1, 1.16 GW in Q2) and 191.5 MW of modules. OEM fees (for cells made under one customer’s name) rose to $25.0M in Q2 from $12.2M in Q1, while cell sales fell to $61.4M from $114.6M, and since $TOYO books those fees net, the shift lifted the margin. Inventory rose to $132.1M as of June 30 from $80.0M as of December 31, which the 6-K attributes to lower June revenue during the U.S. customs (CBP) review. $TOYO wrote down $6.5M of inventory in H1, and it ties recoverability to CBP’s final decision. $TOYO beat its 2025 revenue target but missed its net income bars for 2024 and 2025, and its 2026 targets are on hold: → 2024: Its audited net profit, excluding a $35.1M accounting gain on its earnout shares, was $5.4M against the $41M its SPAC deal required, so 11,287,703 of the 13M earnout shares were canceled in May 2025. → 2025: Raised its targets in September 2025, from 3.5 GW of cells and $33M of net income, to $375-400M of revenue, 4.2-4.4 GW of cells, and $39-45M of net income. Revenue came in at $427.4M and cells at 4.5 GW, both above the targets, but GAAP net income of $37.2M missed, while adjusted net income came to $52.2M after adding back $13.7M of stock comp and a $1.3M earnout charge. → 2026: Guided on March 31 to 5.5-5.8 GW of cells, 1.0-1.3 GW of modules, and $90-100M of adjusted net income, which CEO Takahiko Onozuka said would “nearly double net income again.” $TOYO reaffirmed it on May 18, didn’t on August 19, and gave no figures on September 28 beyond positive H2 EBITDA. H1 delivered $46.0M of adjusted net income, 51.1% of the low end of the target, plus 47.5% of the cell target and 19.2% of the module target. So $TOYO’s trailing earnings are backed by cash, but most of them came from H2 2025 and Q1 2026, before the detentions. That’s why you should expect H2 2026 EBITDA to come in below H1’s $82.1M.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Counterpoint on $MRVL / $LITE acqusition: - "Every buyer that competes with Marvell will want a second, independent laser source". They identify $SIVE / Scintil Photonics as new CW / ELS capacity, with names like $CRDO as potential partners of Sivers. - "With Lumentum sold out for years, the overflow goes to whoever has merchant capacity" Already said this before, but we'll likely see some incentive to diversify laser sourcing. Sivers was cited here, and comes online with 100M lasers / external foundry capacity (2:1 external/internal target). To demonstrate the sheer scale on that, $AAOI exit 2026 laser capacity target was roughly ~24M/year (but different blend). - "Module makers move upstream" was also another second order effect. $JBL as one example is now heavily competing with the combined Lumentum + Marvell.... There's other players like $SMTC that are explicitly doing M&A for expanding laser capacity. I don't think the overall AI valuation crash is representative of individual company strength in the optical sector. There's very compelling opportunities in the laser bottleneck in the upcoming year that I believe markets are mispricing.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Just to show a point... AI names have crashed so much to the point $POET as a business is now considered close to worthless. It's now $829.7M MC vs. ~$788M net cash. And below its $847.5M book value. Considering institutions were funding it $400m at $21, with $26.25 exercisable warrants few months ago and it's back to ~$4.8. Poet would need to rally +337.5% just to return back to the original financing price. "FOGO" (Fear of Getting Obliterated) have hit extreme levels if "growth" companies are priced near liquidation values.

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Cat-Scratch Fervo

Fervo Energy raised $2 billion in its May IPO, then fell nearly 70% below issue price after a Morpheus short report, despite targeting 1 GW…

FRVO $3.8B
Doomberg 5 clicks
OSW · short

One Spa World

OneSpaWorld (OSW) faces about 37% downside as its valuation requires unattainable growth in average revenue per customer after major-market…

OSW $3.1B
Value Investors Club

The AutoNation Story

AutoNation shed rentals and megastores, focused on dealerships, and retired 91.1% of its shares through buybacks after its 1990s roll-up…

AN $6B
Cannibal Stocks 4 clicks

The 10-Q Fills In the Buyback

Empire State Realty Trust bought $86.1 million of stock through November 6, while corrected sum-of-the-parts values range from $9.12 to…

ESRT $1.5B
Orphan REITs 2 clicks

No title

SpaceX’s $24 billion Starbase power plant, Microsoft’s Oracle capacity cuts, Riot’s $72 billion AI lease and Quanta’s sell-off frame…

RIOT $6.8B
Monte Independent Investment Research 3 clicks

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