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Thursday, November 12, 2026

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Looking Back at Another Successful Thesis

DoubleU Games raised its all-cash tender offer for DoubleDown Interactive minority holders to $16.25 per ADS from $11.25 after net cash made the earlier bid untenable.

DDI $779M
The Value Road 1 click

From X

@valuedontlie

Colin King on X

Some initial $KBR RemainCo thoughts: Investors thought they were getting a ~20% margin business in STS which turns out to be 10% after corp costs + normalized JV earnings... some of this was expected, but looks like a bigger reset From that lower base, it's expected to grow 10% annually with 12%+ margins and minimal capex which is great No formal 2027 guidance but implying $425M EBITDA and $3.5B revenue (12% margin)... biggest no-no for spin-offs are mismanaging year 1 expectations from carve-out to standalone financials Capital allocation was sort of glossed over... dividend is gone, no commitment on buybacks, haven't done M&A at STS in 5+ years... They'll still pursue megaprojects (obv can't guide to these tho) so maybe some capital allocation goes there? 85% FCF conversion (from net income) is pretty low for an asset-light business too... sounds like this is a working capital intensive business model Hmm...
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

So there's the positive fundamental long term outlook that I've interpreted. On the other hand, there's near term headwinds that I highlighted above, which markets are pricing in. Negatives I saw near term were $MSFT Vineland pushing back into Q2 2027, which delays revenue recognition. Alongside 2026/2027 capex hikes + downward revision of next quarter revenue. We've seen markets punish near term execution delays with $AAOI recently too. For long term, I don't see this earnings as negative, given 100% prepayments, compute prices going up, new contracts and their subsidiaries growing.

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Cat-Scratch Fervo

Fervo Energy raised $2 billion in its May IPO, then fell nearly 70% below issue price after a Morpheus short report, despite targeting 1 GW…

FRVO $3.8B
Doomberg 5 clicks
AEGXF · long

Aecon Group Inc.

Aecon Group’s long thesis targets 50-80% share-price upside over 6-12 months as the company shifts beyond a complex special situation.

AEGXF $2.7B
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

Portfolio Update April 2026

Portfolio update sells Amazon, adds Floor & Decor, and projects 6.5% annual market returns, with a base case of negative 0.89% from…

FND $5.3B
D Invests

April Earnings Update

Crocs raised 2026 EPS guidance to $13.20-$13.75 and bought back $73.6 million of stock, while Huntsman, Pitney Bowes and Alpha…

CROX $7.3BHUN $1.7B
Hidden Rock Capital's Newsletter

GPGI Inc.

GPGI, formerly CompoSecure, is David Cote’s $4.2 billion industrial acquisition platform, managed by Resolute Holdings for 2.5% of adjusted…

GPGI $4.5BRHLD $1.2B
Kairos Research

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