New Ask Claude or ChatGPT about any stock, using Bullpen. Bullpen in Claude or ChatGPT. 7 days free
Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
Get Daily Recap Feedback

Thursday, November 12, 2026

Back to the front page

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Quantum $QMCO, the tape library maker, just reported a record backlog of nearly $100M as of September 30, more than double the record $45M as of March 31! $QMCO’s revenue rose 42.9% to $89.6M in the September quarter (fiscal Q2), $5.6M above the top of its $82.0M ±$2M guidance, and adjusted EBITDA of $11.1M beat the top of its $6M ±$1M guidance by $4.1M. Secondary storage, mainly tape systems, grew 126.2% from a year earlier to $44.7M, half of revenue, up from 32%, with hyperscale demand up more than 2.6x. CEO Hugues Meyrath said on the March-quarter call in June that $QMCO “should see a lot more tape drives” from $IBM, its drive supplier, in the September and December quarters, letting it convert its tape library backlog into revenue. Instead, backlog more than doubled, and Meyrath said on the September-quarter call that demand remained ahead of supply, “particularly media and tape.” He said $IBM’s “statement of direction” is to double its tape drive output year-over-year, but “we just don’t know how quickly IBM is going to ramp tape drives.” Chief accounting officer Hiral Patel added that revenue beat guidance “primarily due to price and volume mix,” and that she expects pricing volatility from component shortages “to remain a headwind going forward.” $QMCO guided December-quarter revenue to just $91.0M ±$2M, up 1.5% at the midpoint, and said any upside depends on how many components it can get. It also guided adjusted EBITDA down to $9.1M ±$1M from $11.1M, as operating expenses rise with commissions and R&D hiring. That revenue guidance still runs at $364M/year, above the $360M of FY2028 revenue (year ending March 2028) in the base case of my October 28 update. At $19.70/share after hours, close to the $20.25 in that update, $QMCO’s EV is 2.4x TTM revenue, down from 2.8x. It’s also 21.6x the December quarter’s adjusted EBITDA guidance, annualized, down from 34.4x the September quarter’s. So I read the quarter as $QMCO already running at my base case’s revenue, with the bull case’s $400M still depending on $IBM’s drive supply. What I’d want to see in the December-quarter results: 1) IBM: Meyrath saying $IBM’s tape drive output rose, since my bull case assumes it ramps early in 2027. 2) Backlog: Revenue above the $93M top of guidance and backlog below ~$100M, which would mean $QMCO is shipping orders faster than new ones come in. 3) Gross margin: Holding near the September quarter’s 41.0%, even though the guidance midpoints imply under 40% by my math.
@DOMOCAPITAL 1 click

DOMO Capital Management, LLC on X

Disagree. Irrelevant. $ZD sold a single business segment for more than its entire market cap and I'm not even sure it was 20% of total revenues. $CBIZ another example. If $MNRO is selling separate segments to separate entities then even less relevant. In regards to the dividend, that too, makes zero sense. Why would they get financing that carves out (excepts) the December dividend and then go ahead and cancel it? They're telling you they expect to sell the company by the time they report earnings again.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Quantum $QMCO, which restated its financials in May 2024 and again in August 2025, just filed a September-quarter 10-Q that no longer says when it’ll fix the gaps in its accounting controls, including one it expected to fix by September 30. $QMCO’s disclosure controls are still “not effective” because of material weaknesses (the most serious kind of gap in a company’s financial reporting controls) that “remain unremediated as of September 30, 2026.” The weaknesses cover revenue recognition, inventories, income taxes, and the control environment, which the June-quarter 10-Q described as too few qualified staff and too little monitoring. $QMCO said in that June-quarter 10-Q, filed August 11, that it expected to automate the dates on the schedules that set when service revenue is recognized “by the end of our second fiscal quarter,” which ended September 30. The September-quarter 10-Q only says $QMCO “continued to implement” controls over those schedules, without saying whether the automation is in place. Nor does it repeat the June-quarter 10-Q’s other target dates: December 31, 2026 for inventory controls, and March 31, 2027 for sales order entry and income taxes. During the quarter, $QMCO hired a chief accounting officer and a director of tax, and engaged an outside consulting firm to help design the fixes. Management still concluded that the financial statements “fairly present in all material respects” $QMCO’s results. In my October 28 update, I said I’d first watch whether this 10-Q arrived on time, left past quarters unrestated, and showed the service revenue fix $QMCO targeted for the September quarter. There was no late filing or restatement, which I said may push the multiple toward my bear case’s 1.2x, but the 10-Q doesn’t show the fix. So I’d rather see the December-quarter 10-Q, due February 9, 2027, confirm the service revenue fix and give new dates for the rest before taking $QMCO at its word on its controls.

Investor Letters

All letters

Cat-Scratch Fervo

Fervo Energy raised $2 billion in its May IPO, then fell nearly 70% below issue price after a Morpheus short report, despite targeting 1 GW…

FRVO $3.8B
Doomberg 4 clicks

The AutoNation Story

AutoNation shed rentals and megastores, focused on dealerships, and retired 91.1% of its shares through buybacks after its 1990s roll-up…

AN $6B
Cannibal Stocks 4 clicks
OSW · short

One Spa World

OneSpaWorld (OSW) faces about 37% downside as its valuation requires unattainable growth in average revenue per customer after major-market…

OSW $3.1B
Value Investors Club

The 10-Q Fills In the Buyback

Empire State Realty Trust bought $86.1 million of stock through November 6, while corrected sum-of-the-parts values range from $9.12 to…

ESRT $877M
Orphan REITs 2 clicks

No title

SpaceX’s $24 billion Starbase power plant, Microsoft’s Oracle capacity cuts, Riot’s $72 billion AI lease and Quanta’s sell-off frame…

RIOT $6.9B
Monte Independent Investment Research 3 clicks

Publications we follow

Every publication on this site, hand-picked.

130 publications

Newsletters 110

YouTube 4

Blogs 15

Seeking Alpha 83 of 284

Nominate a publication

X accounts we follow

Every account on this site, hand-picked.

91 accounts
Nominate an account

Investor letters we follow

375 firms

Sectors

Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.