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Thursday, November 12, 2026

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@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Counterpoint on $MRVL / $LITE acqusition: - "Every buyer that competes with Marvell will want a second, independent laser source". They identify $SIVE / Scintil Photonics as new CW / ELS capacity, with names like $CRDO as potential partners of Sivers. - "With Lumentum sold out for years, the overflow goes to whoever has merchant capacity" Already said this before, but we'll likely see some incentive to diversify laser sourcing. Sivers was cited here, and comes online with 100M lasers / external foundry capacity (2:1 external/internal target). To demonstrate the sheer scale on that, $AAOI exit 2026 laser capacity target was roughly ~24M/year (but different blend). - "Module makers move upstream" was also another second order effect. $JBL as one example is now heavily competing with the combined Lumentum + Marvell.... There's other players like $SMTC that are explicitly doing M&A for expanding laser capacity. I don't think the overall AI valuation crash is representative of individual company strength in the optical sector. There's very compelling opportunities in the laser bottleneck in the upcoming year that I believe markets are mispricing.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Just to show a point... AI names have crashed so much to the point $POET as a business is now considered close to worthless. It's now $829.7M MC vs. ~$788M net cash. And below its $847.5M book value. Considering institutions were funding it $400m at $21, with $26.25 exercisable warrants few months ago and it's back to ~$4.8. Poet would need to rally +337.5% just to return back to the original financing price. "FOGO" (Fear of Getting Obliterated) have hit extreme levels if "growth" companies are priced near liquidation values.

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Peloton: Beyond The Bike

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PTON $2.6B
TSOH Investment Research 3 clicks

DoorDash’s FBA Moment

DoorDash’s $17 billion Instacart deal targets DashMart warehouse scale, where 99%+ order accuracy and faster delivery address the limits of…

DASH $78BKR $41B
MBI Deep Dives 3 clicks
MONOY · long

Monotaro CO LTD

MonotaRO, traded as MONOY in the U.S. and 3064 in Japan, is a Japanese MRO distributor recommended as a long.

MONOY $7.4B
Value Investors Club

Cat-Scratch Fervo

Fervo Energy raised $2 billion in its May IPO, then fell nearly 70% below issue price after a Morpheus short report, despite targeting 1 GW…

FRVO $3.8B
Doomberg 5 clicks

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