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Thursday, November 12, 2026

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Looking Back at Another Successful Thesis

DoubleU Games raised its all-cash tender offer for DoubleDown Interactive minority holders to $16.25 per ADS from $11.25 after net cash made the earlier bid untenable.

DDI $779M
The Value Road 3 clicks

From X

@aleabitoreddit 1 click

Serenity on X

$AXTI still the chokepoint of the entire optical buildout + demand for InP substrates will grow a lot. They have LTA supply agreements to $LITE / $COHR and probably ends up #1 vs. Sumitomo Electric. The main thing I'm watching is if they can pull a $SNDK style price hike. So far from some channel checks: - Q2 2026: 50-60% increase - Q3 2026: 10% increase - Q4 2026: 10%+ hike But from Coherent's SEC offering... it does look like there's a ceiling to how high % prices can go, which makes that case less likely. We'll see how it plays out
@aleabitoreddit 4 clicks

Serenity on X

$NVDA Jensen Huang on photonics: adding scale-up to optical domain, “is going to be, well, 15x” to aggregate volume. Relating to $LITE, $COHR, and laser companies.. “I'm fairly certain the amount of optics that we need in the future will be several orders of magnitude” Huang added. We’re already in a CW laser bottleneck, but given the time/rate for capacity expansion, I definitely don’t see it meeting the scale Jensen envisions… Your leading merchant suppliers focusing new capacity toward UHP CPO lasers might also unintentionally make shortages around lower end ranges more severe… Since even if you don’t reallocate capacity (which Coherent implied they’d do to maximize margins), the demand for lower end ranges increase too as pluggable demand grows. Anyway, you’re gonna need a lot of lasers and given low BOM cost… this might trigger some fun game theory allocation wars + price hikes for supply
@ACapitalLP 3 clicks

A Capital on X

Still working through them, but I think you have to underwrite each one separately. Counterparty credit, remaining financing needs, construction execution, power certainty (especially Texas/ERCOT), and how much pipeline value is already priced in. $CORZ and $CIFR screen as the most dislocated on my framework, but the discounts aren’t necessarily irrational. The exercise is figuring out which risks are already more than priced in…
@ACapitalLP 4 clicks

A Capital on X

𝙋𝙤𝙬𝙚𝙧𝙚𝙙 𝙎𝙝𝙚𝙡𝙡 𝙋𝙧𝙤𝙫𝙞𝙙𝙚𝙧𝙨 (𝙋𝙎𝙋) 𝙑𝙖𝙡𝙪𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙁𝙧𝙖𝙢𝙚𝙬𝙤𝙧𝙠 $APLD $CIFR $WULF $CORZ $HUT I think people forget that these are real estate companies. That’s why I like “Powered Shell Providers” vs. “AI/HPC” as a descriptor (h/t Morgan Stanley). They secure land and power, develop data centers and lease the infrastructure under long-term contracts. At the end of the day, they have two things of value: (1) an existing portfolio of contracted assets and (2) a pipeline of future developments. That’s it… The valuation exercise is pretty straightforward. Take the stabilized NOI from contracted leases, apply an appropriate cap rate, subtract remaining construction costs and debt, and add back cash and other assets. That’s your theoretical “equity floor.” Then take the uncontracted pipeline, separate it into ~three? buckets based on development readiness, assign each bucket an equity value per MW and a probability of commercialization, and add the risk-adjusted value to the contracted business. Note: You can also reverse-engineer the current share price to see how much the market is implicitly paying for the pipeline. So what’s the worst-case scenario? Why should $CRWV neocloud debt blowing out matter to a landlord with a 15-year lease? There are legitimate risks. Some projects aren’t fully financed, some tenants are more creditworthy than others, and higher financing costs can impact both the ability to complete existing developments and the value of contracted cash flows. Given the leverage involved, even a modest increase in cap rates can have an enormous impact on residual equity value. That’s why the contracted floor isn’t necessarily a hard floor… (but this is true for every stabilized real estate company) But I think the market is conflating two very different things: the value of infrastructure already contracted to a creditworthy tenant and the value of speculative capacity that still needs to be financed, built and leased. Neoclouds own GPUs, rent out compute and face enormous hardware depreciation and recurring capital requirements. PSPs are fundamentally landlords. A deterioration in neocloud financing conditions absolutely matters for tenant credit and future development, but it doesn’t automatically mean that every existing lease is worth less...
@ACapitalLP

A Capital on X

𝙋𝙤𝙬𝙚𝙧𝙚𝙙 𝙎𝙝𝙚𝙡𝙡 𝙋𝙧𝙤𝙫𝙞𝙙𝙚𝙧𝙨 (𝙋𝙎𝙋) 𝙑𝙖𝙡𝙪𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙁𝙧𝙖𝙢𝙚𝙬𝙤𝙧𝙠 I think people forget that these are real estate companies. That’s why I like “Powered Shell Providers” vs. “AI/HPC” as a descriptor (h/t Morgan Stanley). They secure land and power, develop data centers and lease the infrastructure under long-term contracts. At the end of the day, they have two things of value: (1) an existing portfolio of contracted assets and (2) a pipeline of future developments. That’s it… The valuation exercise is pretty straightforward. Take the stabilized NOI from contracted leases, apply an appropriate cap rate, subtract remaining construction costs and debt, and add back cash and other assets. That’s your theoretical “equity floor.” Then take the uncontracted pipeline, separate it into ~three? buckets based on development readiness, assign each bucket an equity value per MW and a probability of commercialization, and add the risk-adjusted value to the contracted business. Note: You can also reverse-engineer the current share price to see how much the market is implicitly paying for the pipeline. So what’s the worst-case scenario? Why should $CRWV neocloud debt blowing out matter to a landlord with a 15-year lease? There are legitimate risks. Some projects aren’t fully financed, some tenants are more creditworthy than others, and higher financing costs can impact both the ability to complete existing developments and the value of contracted cash flows. Given the leverage involved, even a modest increase in cap rates can have an enormous impact on residual equity value. That’s why the contracted floor isn’t necessarily a hard floor… (but this is true for every stabilized real estate company) But I think the market is conflating two very different things: the value of infrastructure already contracted to a creditworthy tenant and the value of speculative capacity that still needs to be financed, built and leased. Neoclouds own GPUs, rent out compute and face enormous hardware depreciation and recurring capital requirements. PSPs are fundamentally landlords. A deterioration in neocloud financing conditions absolutely matters for tenant credit and future development, but it doesn’t automatically mean that every existing lease is worth less...
@aleabitoreddit 11 clicks

Serenity on X

So back on your Neoclouds like $NBIS + memory read through... From $AMZN CEO + A16z interview. Q: On memory shortages (eg. $MU / SK Hynix / Samsung): A: "There's only so much memory, and I don't think that that shortage ends in 2027." Q: On AWS capacity: A: "A good chunk of 28 is sold out", "largely sold out through 2027." Q: On capex ROI: A: Amazon had ​said it would spend about $220 billion in capex for 2026. But Jassy said the company "could invest a lot more ​and it wouldn't be a bad use of ​capital" This is probably validating economics of Neoclouds model since this comes from a pretty stingy hyperscaler like Amazon... that only serves free bananas to their employees. Unlike trusting $META / Zuck where you the guy throws all you can eat cruise ship type buffets at every employee. - AWS claims approximately 30-40% better price-performance than comparable AI accelerators. Then went on to say Annapurna was "one of the very best acquisitions we've done in Amazon and the history of the company, if not the best." "We spun out a separate team in Annapurna to build an AI accelerator" Just to give a bump to your AI custom silicon type private companies (since others like $AAPL were likely going on shopping sprees). TLDR: - Not really too much groundbreaking, just incremental validation of what was said previous earnings. - Broader shortages (like memory) won't end in 2027 - Always positive to hear from $AMZN on insatiable demand + ROI given atrocious Neocloud sentiment right now

Investor Letters

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Qure Anniversary Update

UniQure’s Huntington’s disease BLA has a May 1, 2027 priority-review date, with an FDA advisory committee expected in late first quarter.

QURE $1.7B
Triple S Special Situations Investing 2 clicks

Big Short: Fidelity & Guaranty

F&G’s main insurer held $66.5 billion of assets against $1.38 billion of statutory capital, while private credit, reinsurance dependence…

FG $3.2B
Mispriced Assets 3 clicks

Top Rebound Stocks for Nov’26

Texas Pacific Land's 50% selloff reflects faded data-center expectations, while its Permian royalty business generated $498 million of 2025…

TPL $19B
Rebound Capital 2 clicks

Peloton: Beyond The Bike

Peloton’s connected-fitness subscribers fell 9% year over year to 2.475 million, with another high-single-digit holiday decline forecast as…

PTON $2.6B
TSOH Investment Research 3 clicks
MONOY · long

Monotaro CO LTD

MonotaRO, traded as MONOY in the U.S. and 3064 in Japan, is a Japanese MRO distributor recommended as a long.

MONOY $7.4B
Value Investors Club

DoorDash’s FBA Moment

DoorDash’s $17 billion Instacart deal targets DashMart warehouse scale, where 99%+ order accuracy and faster delivery address the limits of…

DASH $78BKR $41B
MBI Deep Dives 3 clicks

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