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Thursday, November 12, 2026

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Looking Back at Another Successful Thesis

DoubleU Games raised its all-cash tender offer for DoubleDown Interactive minority holders to $16.25 per ADS from $11.25 after net cash made the earlier bid untenable.

DDI $779M
The Value Road 2 clicks

From X

@convequity

Convequity on X

Jensen Huang is not Steve Jobs. It is way bigger than that! Jensen Huang has resigned as Nvidia's CEO, and CFO Colette Kress is interim CEO. The Jobs comparison comes naturally, but it undersells what is happening here. When Steve Jobs passed away, $AAPL Apple's structural leadership, moat and scaling path were clear. The next captain inherited a ship whose course was set. $NVDA Nvidia's are not. It is facing the biggest challenge in its leadership from all fronts: Custom ASICs by $AVGO, merchant GPUs by $AMD, Chinese alternatives by Huawei, and numerous AI chip startups with unique architectures such as $CBRS. All while Nvidia's CUDA moat is facing a shake-up with the prevalence of inference and coding agents — factors we anticipated back in 2023. Most AI compute is moving to inference, where CUDA protects less and the entry barriers are lower. Our December 2023 NVDA MSU note flagged three things: lower entry barriers for inference chips, the CUDA moat getting circumvented as the transformer architecture hardens, and AI spreading into every aspect of applications as copilot and automated agents. Apple was a steady ship sailing on a calm ocean, with moderate potential and a tailwind. Nvidia is a speedy Ultra Large Container Vessel sailing on a tumultuous ocean, with storms but also a huge tailwind, where things are changing fast and growing rapidly. That kind of ship needs the captain to stay on board, to adjust and remain adaptive. Jensen is the only one who can do that. Anyone else will only do a worse job. The most ironical outcome can be the most likely outcome. The resignation knocked the stock down as much as 14% intraday before buyers pared the loss to roughly 4%. The dip-buying instinct is already on display. Nvidia may well go woke in the years to come — drifting from the technical obsession that made it fast. In the near term, once the issue settles, people may buy the dip and claim that Jensen doesn't matter that much to the company, while the coming quarters still report stellar earnings. The true damage will only show up years later, because the semiconductor industry is a long game — a much longer game than many laymen, including politicians, understand. We expect that damage to land in product cycles and market share, not in next quarter's report. Full note: Convequity MSU: NVIDIA, Dec 2023
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Boost Run $BRUN just pushed $12.7M/month of revenue from a project at a Georgia data center into Q1 2027, which implies year-end ARR of $283-291M instead of the $400M it expected in August! CFO Erik Guckel said on the Q3 call that $BRUN would've reached $435M of ARR by year-end 2026 without the delay. CEO Andrew Karos blamed a city council request that paused progress at the site, now resolved, and said the project is worth $144-152M of ARR. Q3 revenue came in at $39.9M, up from $31.1M in Q2 but 23.6% below the $52.2M that a straight-line climb to $400M of ARR implied. Year-end ARR would then land right around the $280M in the bear case of my October 19 update. That bear case also had a $62.2M stock sale assumption, which I said on October 26 I'd drop if the 10-Q confirmed $BRUN's $600M+ of project financing. The 10-Q backs up most of the $600M+: $486.9M of new GPU leases through September 30, plus five equipment leases signed in October that require $83.1M of payments. So I'm dropping that stock sale risk, which lifts the bear case to $5.04/share after counting all 6.23M RSUs granted in Q3. At ~$6.20/share, $BRUN trades 23.0% above that bear case. TCV stands at $2.7B, up $800M from Q2, and the 10-Q adds that the agreements signed in September alone are worth more than $700M. Still, the Q3 deck $BRUN released on November 12 says TCV includes renewal options and LOIs, without saying how much of the $2.7B they make up. So I read the miss as timing, not demand: If the Georgia project is billing by March 31, 2027, ARR would clear the $400M in my base case a quarter later than I assumed. The other date to watch is November 30, when the 240 GPU servers from the order $BRUN signed in June are scheduled to start.

Investor Letters

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Big Short: Fidelity & Guaranty

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OSG · long

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The AI Compute Squeeze

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