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Thursday, November 12, 2026

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Big Short: Fidelity & Guaranty

F&G’s main insurer held $66.5 billion of assets against $1.38 billion of statutory capital, while private credit, reinsurance dependence and annuity withdrawals threaten its equity,…

FG $3.2B
Mispriced Assets

From X

@valuedontlie 1 click

Colin King on X

Some initial $KBR RemainCo thoughts: Investors thought they were getting a ~20% margin business in STS which turns out to be 10% after corp costs + normalized JV earnings... some of this was expected, but looks like a bigger reset From that lower base, it's expected to grow 10% annually with 12%+ margins and minimal capex which is great No formal 2027 guidance but implying $425M EBITDA and $3.5B revenue (12% margin)... biggest no-no for spin-offs are mismanaging year 1 expectations from carve-out to standalone financials Capital allocation was sort of glossed over... dividend is gone, no commitment on buybacks, haven't done M&A at STS in 5+ years... They'll still pursue megaprojects (obv can't guide to these tho) so maybe some capital allocation goes there? 85% FCF conversion (from net income) is pretty low for an asset-light business too... sounds like this is a working capital intensive business model Hmm...
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

So there's the positive fundamental long term outlook that I've interpreted. On the other hand, there's near term headwinds that I highlighted above, which markets are pricing in. Negatives I saw near term were $MSFT Vineland pushing back into Q2 2027, which delays revenue recognition. Alongside 2026/2027 capex hikes + downward revision of next quarter revenue. We've seen markets punish near term execution delays with $AAOI recently too. For long term, I don't see this earnings as negative, given 100% prepayments, compute prices going up, new contracts and their subsidiaries growing.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Regarding $NBIS earnings results: To show you how fast they're growing... from Q2 to Q3: Revenue: $582.3M -> $980.8M (+68% QoQ) Adjusted EBITDA: $236.2M -> $465.8M (+97% QoQ) AI cloud adj. EBITDA margin: 49.7% -> 53.2% Net Income: −$190.4M -> −$37.5M ARR has reached $6.4B at the end of Sep. In terms of management commentary: - Since start of Q3, Nebius signed $12B+ of new contracts - Average GPU pricing rose 20%+ sequentially, payback shortened from 22M -> 19M - On Q3 deals, prepayments covered 100% of associated capex, up from 50–60% in Q2 (insane for financing) - Contract value per MW exceeded $25M+ from Q3 up from ~$20M Q2 - 5GW contracted power year end With $10B of committed customer prepayments in 2026 and $17B-$20B in 2027. Now, prepayments and borrowing against existing contracts covers ~75-85% of 2027 capex. On subsidiaries: 1. Avride - 250 autonomous vehicles fleet, over 100,000 passenger rides (with companies like $UBER). Fully driverless robotaxi targeted H1 2027. 2. Toloka - Revenue doubled sequentially 3. Enterprise cloud - Databricks and Datadog selected Neibus. Along with a new agreement with Snowflake. 4. Tavily - Over 3M developers now with $IBM post-training a core partner. 5. ClickHouse - Nothing about new secondary valuations, but we can see valuations growing 6. TokenFactory - Contract value grew 17x sequentially The primary negative I saw was that 2026 guidance is now on the lower end (near ~$3B), due to $MSFT capacity deliveries slipping to Q2 2027. Apparently there was an execution miss with a third party partner DataOne. Temporary generators were retired amid permitting issues before enough $BE fuel cell capacity came online. Capex also increased in 2026 from $20B-$25B to $27B, while revising revenue expectations downward. So near-term unfortunate headwinds kinda reminiscent of AOI earnings; however long term I think Nebius will take care of you. For 2027 outlook: - $12-13 billion revenue, capex of $40-45 billion, pre-tax breakeven by the end of 2027. Very operationally bullish, as seen with prepayments covering capex, GPU premiums increasing. Main downside is near-term execution risk from third parties, causing near-term delays and revenue recognition. Great quarter from Nebius overall.

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