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Wednesday, November 11, 2026

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@StableBread 2 clicks

Fajasy on X

Newbury Street II $NTWO, the SPAC taking robot-safety maker FORT Robotics public, closed at $10.81 on October 9, below the cash in its trust. The final proxy for its October 28, 2026 extension vote, filed the same day, shows $186.9M in the trust as of October 7, or $10.833/share. The vote would push Newbury's deadline for closing the deal from November 4 to February 4, 2027, and holders who want to cash out at $10.833 have until 5pm EST on October 26 to submit their shares. The proxy also says the S-4 (the merger filing) is still "to be filed," 52 days after FORT CEO Samuel Reeves told employees to expect it "in the coming weeks." So at $10.81, the market values the FORT deal at zero, and holders who skip this redemption can still cash out at the merger vote, once they've seen the S-4.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$TLF: Tandy Leather Factory (TLF) is the dominant specialty retailer and wholesaler of leather, tools, hardware, dyes, and DIY kits for leathercraft, with ~101 stores plus e-commerce serving a niche hobbyist and artisan base; its narrow moat stems from a 100+ year brand, unmatched physical store network that doubles as hands-on community and education hubs (classes, expert staff, ability to feel product quality), and a deep proprietary assortment of kits/tools that general craft chains cannot match, supporting high gross margins (recently expanding toward 65%) and modest customer stickiness. At ~$2.55/share it has a market cap of ~$21M and enterprise value of ~$43M (with ~$28M debt/leases vs. ~$6.4M cash); it trades at a steep discount to tangible book value of $47M ($5.73/share, P/B ~0.45x) and working capital of ~$35M, both well above the market cap, implying liquidation value (even after conservative discounts on inventory) exceeds the equity value and provides a meaningful margin of safety. Capital allocation has featured large special dividends (including ~$6.1M or $0.75/share in early 2026, partly from prior asset sales) with an unused $5M buyback authorization, while recent investments in a new headquarters/flagship and systems pressured cash. Future growth is modest, driven by pricing power, e-commerce/nontraditional channels, and expense discipline in a flat-to-declining niche rather than volume expansion. LTM Owner’s Earnings (FCF) are negative at roughly -$2.3M due to operating outflows and elevated CapEx; next-12-month figures should improve toward breakeven or modestly positive as one-time spending normalizes and margins hold. Likely catalysts include sustained operating profitability and positive free cash generation (already evident in recent quarterly margin gains and small profits), potential further capital returns if cash rebuilds, and deep-value attention given the low float and discount to book; risks center on consumer discretionary sensitivity, rising occupancy costs, competition, and inventory management.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$CNRD: M cap $145m, net cash $28m. $28.83 stock. One of the few specialized ship makers left. Q3 2025 footnotes whow change in severance comp indicating a sale and foudning family estate planning. Sale at 8x 2025 EBITDA yields $54-$55 share price. Won a partnership with Samsung recently. Contract won May 13th is $25m min over next 3 years. Backlog $293m. $3.6 a share in FCF in Q2 2026 alone (stock at $28.83). Founding family involved. Current administration likley to spend more $ on shipbuilding (Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Restores America’s Maritime Dominance – The White House). (Navy shipbuilding stands to get $27 billion in funding in 2026 - Defense One).
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$OPBK: Korean American depositor focus across Southern CA, TX, NV, WA. LTM Owner's Earnings=27.32m 7.8x multiple. 3.7% dividend. At book. 12 full service branches and 1 loan production office (LPO). SBA preferred lender status allows them to unload 75% of loans at a premium. Focused on real estate and housing. 1h 2026 closed 5 LPOS due to "limited market demand" was outside core geography. NPLS +22.7% from YE 2025 to Q2 2026. Cost of deposits end of Q2 2.93%, more than 50% are CDs which is bad as they are not sticky and rate sensitive.

Investor Letters

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💥Tead-ering💥

Teads’ revenue fell 26% and its stock dropped 38% as Google AI summaries cut publisher referral traffic, worsening losses and straining its…

TEAD $17MGUTS $11M
PETITION 2 clicks

Lion Copper: Initiation Report

Lion Copper targets 2030 Nevada copper production at Yerington, with Rio Tinto’s Nuton funding its 2027 feasibility study under a 65%…

LCU $96M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 3 clicks

Seed Corn

Chiron’s failed $49 million Beaumont sale and $178 million Pinnacle acquisition leave XRN with $70 million of liquidity and medical-office…

XRN $372M
Orphan REITs 3 clicks
NGVC · long

Natural Grocers Vitamin Ctge

Natural Grocers (NGVC) returned to $27.80 after a prior long entry at $21 and exit recommendation at $46.

NGVC $682M
Value Investors Club

Post Q3 EVC Update

EVC's Q3 update cites $30 million for a single station, a broadcast-business sale and stronger positioning for 2027.

EVC $832M
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 26 clicks

Entravision Q3 Update

Entravision’s Q3 ad-tech revenue reached $177.2 million, up 133% year over year, while total revenue rose 88% to $226.3 million and diluted…

EVC $832M
The Value Road 4 clicks

GREAT DEC-TECTIVE WORK

Diversified Energy reported $255.6 million of “true” nine-month free cash flow, while its $1.8 billion Birch acquisition would shift…

DEC $900M
The Oak Bloke 4 clicks

Research Note

Nine Mile Metals is the subject of a research note.

VMSXF $14M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 5 clicks

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