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Wednesday, November 11, 2026

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@StableBread

Fajasy on X

In August, I noted that the design in the PEA (the first-pass study) for American West Metals’ $AWMLF Storm copper project meant no tailings dam and no process chemicals. In the PFS (the more detailed study that replaced it), initial capex came in at US$81.0M, 70.9% above the PEA’s US$47.4M, and pre-development capex rose to US$27.3M from US$14.7M. So Storm needs US$108.3M before first copper, up 74.4% from US$62.1M, plus US$10.2M of expansion capex later (US$118.5M over the mine life). Processing drove most of the increase, at US$38.0M of initial capex against US$9.4M in the PEA. Test work showed that crushing broke the ore along grain boundaries and pushed more copper into the fines that bypass the ore sorters (machines that pick copper-bearing rock out of the waste). So the plant now adds a small flotation circuit (which uses chemical reagents to float copper minerals off finely ground ore) and a US$4.2M tailings facility, both of which the PEA’s design of ore sorters and gravity separators avoided. The PFS adds flotation reagents and filtered tailings, which get stacked dry. Storm’s footprint is still small next to a conventional flotation mill’s, but regulators now have reagents and tailings to review. With the flotation circuit, the plant recovers 68% of the copper in the ore, or 103,000t over the mine life, up from ~61% (~83,000t from 10.3Mt @ 1.32% copper) in the PEA plan. But the product grades 15% copper, down from the PEA’s 17.1%, so Storm has to bag and ship 41.3% more of it (688,000t vs. 487,000t) during the 5-6 weeks each summer when ships can reach the site. Over the copper the plant recovers, operating costs come to ~US$3.17/lb vs. ~US$2.66/lb in the PEA (total operating costs over recovered pounds, before silver credits), or 19.4% more per pound. So the PFS mine recovers 23.8% more copper than the PEA’s, but each pound costs 19.4% more to produce, and the processing plant costs four times as much to build, since the fines now need their own flotation circuit and tailings facility.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

I went through American West Metals’ $AWMLF new pre-feasibility study (PFS) for its Storm copper project in Arctic Canada to see how much of the mine plan now rests on a reserve. The PFS converts part of Storm’s resource into a maiden probable ore reserve (the part of a resource shown to be economic to mine, at the lower of the two confidence levels) of 12.58Mt @ 1.2% copper and 3.7g/t silver, or 151,000t of contained copper and 1.5Moz of silver. All 11 years of the mine plan come from the reserve, with inferred tonnes (the lowest-confidence resource category) treated as waste, which settles my August concern that 22% of the mine plan in the PEA (Storm’s first-pass study) was inferred. The plan averages ~10,000t/year of copper, up to 14,000t/year, and starts in the higher-grade Chinook and Corona deposits, where first-year ore grades ~2% copper. The PFS calculates economic cut-off grades (the lowest grade worth processing) of 0.25-0.27% copper, but the reserve uses 0.32-0.34% because test work on lower-grade ore is limited. Three of Storm’s seven deposits (Cirrus, Gap, and Lightning Ridge) are also still inferred only, so the reserve comes from the other four. So the definitive feasibility study (DFS), the next study, could add ore without a new discovery through (1) test work that supports lower cut-offs and (2) drilling that upgrades the inferred-only deposits.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

There's a lot of news about WT (3036) introducing their first CW DFB laser line card. More significant than people think for medium-long term. For economic impact and what revenue looks like: - $SMTC generated 74% of its revenue through distributors. $AMBA as another example, ~60-70% of their 2026 revenue went through this company. - With WT in specific, if you look at even a large company like $AVGO scaled: -> 13% of Broadcom revenue went through WT in 2020 -> 18% (2021) -> 20% (2022) -> ~21% (2023) -> ~28% (2024) -> now possibly up to ~46% (they stopped naming) Just showing how important the largest distributors in the world become to semi companies. Given how WT chairman attributed rapid growth coming from AI photonics demand (eg. DSPs to optical module makers): It becomes more interesting for a certain company that WT introduced their first CW DFB laser line card during an industry bottleneck.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Ramesh Nuggihalli, the new CEO of power plant pollution-control company Fuel Tech $FTEK, spent most of the Q3 call on strategy rather than the quarter. He’s running a planning process with outside advisors he’s worked with before, plus a smaller team already identifying acquisition targets, and plans to take the strategy and an “M&A playbook” to the board in early 2027. He listed three gaps acquisitions would fill, in this order: 1) Products: Technologies Fuel Tech doesn’t offer today. 2) Markets: Customers and end markets it doesn’t serve. 3) Business models: Such as turning its informal service work into a standalone business built on long-term service contracts. He didn’t say how much of the $27.8M of cash and investments the board would spend, but at an H.C. Wainwright conference in September, he said he doesn’t need “$50 million-$100 million deals,” just “a $2 million EBITDA company” that fills a product or channel gap. Nuggihalli’s also reviewing R&D spending on DGI, $FTEK’s technology for dissolving oxygen into water. Adoption in aquaculture (fish farming) “has been slower than anticipated,” so $FTEK is evaluating larger parts of the water market. In August, a first commercial hatchery system was the DGI milestone I said to watch. But DGI barely matters to the thesis: it’s still in pilots, Nuggihalli called $FTEK’s investment in it “modest,” the only 2026 revenue management has mentioned is $100K from a wastewater rental, and I gave it no value in August.

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