Wednesday, November 11, 2026

Quick note on LSAK and GRPN

Lesaka expects its Bank Zero acquisition to close by end-January 2027, though it could still close this calendar year.

LSAK $309MGRPN $488M

Mispriced Assets 10h ago 3 clicks

11h ago WBI $1.4B

WaterBridge Q3 Update: Speed Ramp Powers Record Quarter and Datacenters on the Horizon

310 Value’s Newsletter 2 clicks

11h ago LUMN $4.5B

Lumen Technologies (NASDAQ: LUMN) Stock Rating: Upgrade To Accumulate After Q3 FY12/26 Earnings

Cestrian Capital Research 1 click

From X

@AsifSuria 32m ago

Asif Suria on X

Maybe Jensen will mount a comeback the way @vishal_better did with $BETR It would be surprising if the board decides to oust him from $NVDA. What would this mean for the greater AI bubble with all the circular financing and such.

@DeepSailCapital 38m ago

Deep Sail Capital on X

I’m looking to short a lot of shitcos if they run here: $RGTI $IONQ $ACHR $QBTS just look at my Shortlist for names.

@DeepSailCapital 41m ago

Deep Sail Capital on X

$QNT in Dec 1 Lockup. It trades at an insane valuation of 300 P/S as the market share count doesn’t count the economic interests currently not converted by Honeywell and Others.

@DeepSailCapital 55m ago

Deep Sail Capital on X

$SHLS & $ARRY Merger / Short Report Review

@BlueDuckCap 2h ago

BDC on X

$SNAP is a uncrowded bc Evan's track record as CEO and capital allocator is historically bad. Would you invest in a hedge fund that loses 40% a year? Nobody would. The bet the bulls are making, the few of us, is that @evanspiegel will see the light and do the right thing. I believe in him

@BlueDuckCap 2h ago

BDC on X

If only Evan at $SNAP had been sleeping around. Would be a banner year for Blue Duck! Sigh. Disclaimer: totally kidding. I like Evan. And I think SNAP equity has potential. And Evan is a good human which is why eventually he will do right be shareholders.

@StableBread 3h ago

Fajasy on X

The full update covers how much of Storm’s build $AWMLF now has to fund itself:

@StableBread 3h ago

Fajasy on X

At the US$5.30/lb copper base case in American West Metals’ $AWMLF new pre-feasibility study (PFS) for its Storm copper project, the post-tax NPV (discounted at 7%) is US$119M, with a 32.8% IRR and a 3.6-year payback. The PEA (Storm’s first-pass study) showed US$149M at an 8% discount rate and a 46% IRR, on US$4.60/lb copper. So the PFS uses a higher copper price and a lower discount rate, and still values Storm lower. The PFS’s own sensitivity table shows ~US$110M at the PEA’s 8% rate, and post-tax FCF over the mine life fell to US$179M from US$191M, even though revenue rose to US$1.25B from US$839M. Extending the sensitivity table, each 10% drop in copper takes ~US$52M off the NPV. So at the PEA’s US$4.60/lb, 13.2% below the PFS’s price, Storm would be worth ~US$51M at 7% (US$118.9M − 1.32 × US$51.6M), about a third of the PEA’s US$149M. In other words, the higher copper price, not the mine plan, holds up the PFS’s NPV. The PFS also runs a spot case at US$6.53/lb copper (as of November 2), where the NPV rises to US$233M, with a 55.1% IRR and a 2.7-year payback. A 10% move in copper shifts the NPV by US$50-52M, and a 10% change in recovery by US$46-48M, against ~US$4M for a 10% change in capex. So the capex increase matters less to the value than to the funding. At ~US$52M per 10% move in copper, the NPV would reach zero near US$4.10/lb, ~36% below the November 9 price. At US$4.75/lb, the average London Metal Exchange (LME) price since January 2024 (per the PFS), the NPV would be ~US$65M. Copper is also near the top of its range, as the PFS’s US$6.53/lb spot price is just 3.1% below the US$6.74/lb LME high since January 2024. So I value Storm on the PFS’s US$5.30/lb base case rather than spot, since first copper is still at least three years away.