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Wednesday, November 11, 2026

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Expert Call | Lumentum & Marvell Deal

Marvell’s all-stock acquisition of Lumentum targets optical supply, DSP synergies and AI data-center demand, while adding fab integration, customer-retention and regulatory risks.

LITE $48B
P Equity Research

From X

@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Yes, I still like and will defend $AAOI despite the "shitco" claims from the level 1 NPCs on X: - AOI recently signed a $1B to $1.5B 3Y contract with a hyperscalers - Majority of people missed this part, but there's another $5-$7B contract expected to be signed in weeks. This is very large scale relative to current valuations, and gives AOI more visibility for the future. However, the risk I see here is that hyperscalers prefer CPO/NPO laser procurement over pluggables. So that's probably part of the reason they're not doing pre-payments or take/pay like they would for $LITE or $MU capacity expansion. - There's only single digits amount of companies in the world that probably have 300mW-400mW CPO laser capabilities (one of which is the "shitco") This was also a large reason why $COHR got $20B agreements, $LITE $5B agreements + $NVDA investments (UHP lasers). I'd argue they should focus on merchant high end lasers than using their own capacity toward 800g pluggables. And just source lasers from merchant market That would change their valuation premiums overnight IMO, given they have a lot of optionality from end-to-end supply chain manufacturing. _ In terms of valuations, they deserved to be compressed from their infinite $600M ATMs that they used earlier (that they now stopped abusing). And since timelines slipped a few months from DSP bottlenecks and equipment procurement/installation. Then you have macro overhang too + overall AI selloff. As for the operational side of things, it's not eternity and relatively out of their hands... but I wouldn't conflate it as failing qualifications or facing order cancellations. Building up US supply chains like $INTC is always going to be more difficult than easy-mode Asia manufacturing in Malaysia as well. I'd argue this same execution risk they're being punished for over in Texas (like Intel foundry), will turn into a premium once US capacity scales into revenue
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Not always right on timing, but I'm pretty confident long term they'll play out. Just look at $AXTI, everyone thought it was a dead company last year and InP substrates were a commodity. -> Q4 2025 gross margins: 20.9% -> Q1 2026: 29.6% -> Q2 2026: 44.9% -> Q3 2026: 56.0% -> Q4 2026: 60%+ est. With legacy memory like $ESMT, I did guess earnings correctly, they made a whopping $331M+ net income relative to $1.9B MC But stock still dropped somehow... but eventually as time passes out I'm personally confident majority will play out directionally right.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

This aged pretty well, when I said this last year in 2025, Clickhouse was a $6.7B company... Now as an update, their secondary valuation sits around ~$50B, which $NBIS owns 25%+ of. I've always liked Nebius the most because sum of parts, with all their lesser known subsidiaries growing alongside their core neocloud business. Including Avride (self-driving), Clickhouse, Toloka, and other subsidiaries that they owned. This year Nebius also acquired: - Tavily (web search and retrival) - Clarifai (Inference orchestration) Which scale independently as well (the others were integrated into Nebius Token Factory). Hard to view $NBIS as just another neocloud when it has billions in scaling value outside its core infrastructure business.

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Cat-Scratch Fervo

Fervo Energy raised $2 billion in its May IPO, then fell nearly 70% below issue price after a Morpheus short report, despite targeting 1 GW…

FRVO $2.3B
Doomberg 4 clicks

Sea Ltd Earnings Update: Q3 2026

Sea Ltd reported Q3 2026 revenue of $8.6 billion, up 43.4% year over year, while net income rose 34.0%.

SE $48B
SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets 4 clicks
NEXPF · long

Nexi SpA

Nexi, continental Europe’s largest merchant acquirer, is presented as a long investment using normalized EPS and EBIT that exclude…

NEXPF $6.2B
Value Investors Club

SoFi: DCF Valuation

SoFi's DCF values shares at $18, forecasting adjusted net revenue growth from 30% in 2026 to 3.5% by 2035 as it scales its digital bank…

SOFI $21B
Hated Moats

Adobe Deep Dive

Adobe trades at 14x earnings after a 65% decline, with AI, Canva and Figma threatening subscriptions, customer acquisition and…

ADBE $93B
Speedwell Memos 2 clicks

Vidrala

Vidrala has grown from a Spanish glass-container maker into a multi-country packaging platform with expanding Latin American exposure.

VDRFF $3.7B
smallvalue. 7 clicks

Quick Value #315 - Zoetis (ZTS)

Zoetis trades at about 11x 2026 earnings after falling more than 60% from its peak, as disappointing launches and safety issues pressure…

ZTS $37B
Value Don't Lie

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