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Tuesday, November 10, 2026

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@KEDM_COM 1 click

KEDM.com on X

Four Tree Island Advisory is once again pushing against DoubleU Games’ $11.25 per ADS bid for DoubleDown Interactive $DDI, calling it far too low given DDI’s recent performance. DDI has since delivered two strong quarters, with cash per ADS rising to over $11.18. Using Playtika’s ~4.3x EBITDA multiple (despite Playtika’s weaker balance sheet, higher leverage, and declining EBITDA), this would imply roughly $26.40 per ADS (more than double today’s price), which Four Tree Island still frames as a conservative floor.
@StableBread 6 clicks

Fajasy on X

I went through every Boost Run $BRUN contract with disclosed terms to see how much of its $2.6B+ of total contract value (TCV) they cover. Cohere, the Canadian developer of AI models for businesses and governments, agreed on September 30, 2026, to pay $BRUN $525.6M over the agreement’s term for $NVDA’s GB300 NVL72 racks, each with 72 Blackwell Ultra GPUs. Part of the $525.6M is a prepayment $BRUN hasn’t disclosed. But if we follow the 22% average $BRUN says its prepayments run, the prepayment would be ~$116M. Each rack’s term runs 60 months, and the first racks should start in Q2 2027. Cohere can terminate and get back everything it prepaid if it hasn’t accepted a minimum number of racks by July 15, 2027. $BRUN has disclosed terms for seven contracts, and the two largest are with Cohere and Thinking Machines Lab, the AI startup founded by former OpenAI CTO Mira Murati: → Fluidstack (November 6, 2025): $63.6M over 24 months, or $31.8M/year. → 1,280 B300s, Charlotte (March 15, 2026): $116.1M over 36 months, or $38.7M/year. → 256 H200s, Raleigh (March 16, 2026): $3.7M over 12 months, or $3.7M/year. → Thinking Machines Lab (May 21, 2026): $471.7M over 36 months, or $157.2M/year. → June order, 240 GPU servers (June 8, 2026): $207.6M over 36 months, or $69.2M/year. → July order, 1,536 B300s (July 9, 2026): $222.5M over 48 months, or $55.6M/year. → Cohere (September 30, 2026): $525.6M over 60 months, or $105.1M/year. --- → Total: $1.61B, or $461.3M/year. Unnamed customers are labeled by what they rent, including $NVDA’s current B300 (Blackwell Ultra) and older H200 GPUs. $BRUN’s TCV is over $2.6B, so the other $989M+ is in deals without disclosed terms. The October 6 release calls the $2.6B “total revenue customers have committed to pay,” but the August 14 Q2 deck also counted renewal options and LOIs in TCV, and $BRUN hasn’t said whether the definition changed. So the conservative read counts only the seven contracts with disclosed terms, worth $1.61B, not the $2.6B headline.

Investor Letters

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The AutoNation Story

AutoNation shed rentals and megastores, focused on dealerships, and retired 91.1% of its shares through buybacks after its 1990s roll-up…

AN $6.1B
Cannibal Stocks 2 clicks

The 10-Q Fills In the Buyback

Empire State Realty Trust bought $86.1 million of stock through November 6, while corrected sum-of-the-parts values range from $9.12 to…

ESRT $1.3B
Orphan REITs 2 clicks

No title

SpaceX’s $24 billion Starbase power plant, Microsoft’s Oracle capacity cuts, Riot’s $72 billion AI lease and Quanta’s sell-off frame…

RIOT $5.8B
Monte Independent Investment Research 3 clicks
AUTLF · long

Austal Limited

Austal is a naval and commercial shipbuilder operating in the U.S., Australia and Asia.

AUTLF $1.3B
Value Investors Club

Lion Copper: Initiation Report

Lion Copper targets 2030 Nevada copper production at Yerington, with Rio Tinto’s Nuton funding its 2027 feasibility study under a 65%…

LCU $96M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 3 clicks

Quick Value #337 - Dana Inc (DAN)

Dana is combining with Eaton’s Mobility unit via a 1Q27 Reverse Morris Trust after selling a division, delevering and accelerating buybacks.

DAN $2.1B
Value Don't Lie 3 clicks

Seed Corn

Chiron’s failed $49 million Beaumont sale and $178 million Pinnacle acquisition leave XRN with $70 million of liquidity and medical-office…

XRN $372M
Orphan REITs 3 clicks

STRL: 80 new electricians a week

Sterling’s $4.1 billion backlog faces Texas permitting risk after a governor proposed a moratorium, while Connexion, Capital Asset Planning…

STRL $7.6B
Trade Ideas Flow 2 clicks

Diamond Estates: Research Note

Diamond Estates converts $4.7 million of Lassonde debentures at a 69% premium, cutting debt to $10.9 million and raising Lassonde ownership…

LSDAF $1.2B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 4 clicks

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