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Tuesday, November 10, 2026

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@stockgutter 2 clicks

SG on X

$ADUR I was so intrigued by the "Magic Kitchen" slop that Aduro's AI gave you that I asked my own question: 2:32 PM why has aduro diluted so much over the past two years? 2:32 PM That's a fair and important question to ask directly. Let me walk you through the factual picture of how and why our share count has grown over the past two years. Why Aduro Has Issued Shares: The Core Reason Aduro is a pre-revenue, pre-commercial clean technology company. We fund our operations — R&D, lab expansion, pilot plant construction, and scale-up activities — entirely through equity financing, since we do not yet generate meaningful operating revenue. For fiscal year 2024, the operating loss was $7,436,861 ACT:CNX_2024-11..., and for the nine months ended February 28, 2026, the operating loss was $14,346,919 ACT:CNX_2026-04.... That cash has to come from somewhere, and for us, it comes from issuing shares and warrants. The Specific Equity Issuances (Chronological) Here is a summary of the key capital raises and share issuance events over the past two years: [Chart omitted because it does not copy over] The Non-Cash Component Is Significant It is worth noting that a meaningful portion of the share count increase is non-cash dilution — specifically share-based compensation. For the nine months ended February 28, 2026, share-based compensation expense was $5,548,758 ACT:CNX_2026-04.... This reflects options and RSUs granted to employees, directors, and consultants as part of their compensation, which vest over time and convert to shares upon exercise. This is standard practice for early-stage technology companies competing for talent. The Class B Special Warrants: A Unique Event One significant share issuance — 4,102,562 pre-split shares (approximately 1.26 million post-consolidation shares) — was issued for no cash consideration when the Company achieved its Second Milestone in August 2024 ACT:CNX_2025-08.... These were warrants issued as part of the original Aduro Energy acquisition in 2021 ACT:CNX_2024-11..., and their conversion was a contractual obligation tied to a technology milestone, not a financing decision. What the Capital Has Been Used For The disclosed use of proceeds across these financings has been consistent ACT:CNX_2026-04...ACT:CNX_2024-12...ACT:CNX_2025-06...ACT:CNX_2026-01...ACT:CNX_2026-04...ACT:CNX_2025-06...: Ongoing R&D costs Construction and operation of the "Next Generation Process" (NGP) pilot plant Construction of the Demonstration-Scale / FOAK (First-of-a-Kind) industrial facility at Chemelot General working capital As of February 28, 2026, working capital was $39,951,597 and available cash was $39,423,876 ACT:CNX_2026-04..., compared to $8,032,385 working capital at May 31, 2025 — reflecting the material impact of the December 2025 and January 2026 offerings. Bottom Line The dilution is real and is a direct consequence of being a pre-commercial company with growing operational costs and no self-sustaining revenue stream. Each financing round has been tied to advancing the technology toward commercialization — from pilot plant to demonstration scale to FOAK industrial deployment. The share consolidation in August 2024 (3.25:1) was also executed to support the Nasdaq listing ACT:CNX_2025-05..., which itself was intended to broaden the investor base and improve access to U.S. capital markets ACT:CNX_2025-01....
@leevalueroach

Lee Roach on X

Rayonier $RYN borrows at 2.29%. Their own 10-Q makes it look like 5.5%. The debt table lists every term loan at "a variable interest rate" of 5.2% to 5.9%. Take each loan's margin back out and you land on 3.62% every time, which is just where SOFR happened to sit on June 30. So that column is telling you about SOFR. It's not telling you anything about Rayonier. The real number shows up two pages later. All the term debt is swapped to fixed, and the swaps came over from PotlatchDeltic matched dollar-for-dollar to the loans they cover. On top of that, Farm Credit is a co-op, so it pays patronage refunds back to borrowers and those land directly against interest expense — $15.4M in six months. Term Loan M reads 5.32% in the table and actually costs 1.08%. Blended across all $1.86B: 2.29%. Which matters mostly for what it does to the other side. What they owe is a fixed number. It doesn't index to anything, doesn't adjust, just sits there. What they own is four million acres, and stumpage and land move with the price level. Let inflation run and one side climbs while the other stays put. Equity keeps the difference and the lender eats it. Timber makes that better than it'd be for most balance sheets, because the trees keep growing whether you cut them or not. Bad log market, you just don't harvest, and the inventory builds while you wait. Debt at 2.29% is what makes waiting affordable. Coverage is 8.7x on a 2.5x covenant, debt/cap 28% against a 65% cap — nobody's forcing them to do anything. It's not permanent. Fix averages about four years, so call it a real-rate edge through the back half of the decade. 2028 and 2029 are when it gets retested. But that's a 2029 problem the market seems to be pricing in 2026. Four million acres funded this cheap is worth more than they're getting credit for.

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