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Tuesday, November 10, 2026

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@KEDM_COM

KEDM.com on X

Once a year, Bill Ackman @BillAckman of Pershing Square bangs the drum on Fannie Mae $FNMA and Freddie Mac $FMCC. They are high-quality, low-risk businesses currently trading at 1.5x earnings and operating under state conservatorship, even though Trump repeatedly mentioned taking the companies public. Ackman mentioned what a member of President Trump's administration said: “We can’t take the risk of the Communists taking control of Fannie and Freddie”. Bill’s letter makes his tweets look short by comparison, but it offers some good insights.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Elmet $ELMT, which makes tungsten and molybdenum parts for U.S. missiles and jets, saw its main division's gross margin rise to 31.8% in Q3 from 20.1% a year earlier, and management credits the jump mainly to how it bought and priced tungsten during Q1 2026's price spike. Revenue rose 55.6% to a record $79.6M, and tungsten products went from 14.8% of $ELMT's shipments in Q3 2025 to 33.6% in Q3 2026, which the 10-Q attributes to (1) price increases tied to higher input costs and (2) more volume from aerospace and defense customers. Meanwhile, $ELMT's microwave products division, which makes radio-frequency systems rather than tungsten parts, grew revenue just 4.4%, and its gross margin fell to 26.1% from 30.7%. $ELMT values its inventory on a first-in, first-out (FIFO) and average-cost basis, so Q3's cost of goods sold still reflected tungsten bought earlier in the run-up, while $ELMT's selling prices had already risen with the market. Its $152.8M of inventory as of October 2, up from $69.7M as of December 31, equals ~8 months of Q3's cost of goods sold, so most of what's on hand was bought after prices took off. Since then, tungsten prices have stalled: European ammonium paratungstate (APT), the traded form of tungsten, was quoted at $2,500-3,100 per metric ton unit (MTU, 10 kg of tungsten trioxide) in the week to November 5, per Shanghai Metals Market, vs. $2,900-3,100 on September 10. Q3's adjusted EBITDA margin was 21.3%, up from 12.0% in H1 2026. Unless tungsten climbs again, I'd treat part of the jump as a timing gain that fades as inventory bought at 2026 prices flows through. In my July 2 write-up, I picked $ELMT as the safest way to own China's tungsten squeeze, since it makes the parts instead of mining the ore. Q3 shows $ELMT's margins still move with the tungsten price, just with a lag. $ELMT's own 2031 plan assumes APT at $1,500/MTU, 40-52% below the November 5 quote.

Investor Letters

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💥Tead-ering💥

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TEAD $17MGUTS $13M
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The AutoNation Story

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AN $6.1B
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The 10-Q Fills In the Buyback

Empire State Realty Trust bought $86.1 million of stock through November 6, while corrected sum-of-the-parts values range from $9.12 to…

ESRT $1.3B
Orphan REITs 2 clicks

Portfolio Update July 2026

Portfolio update trimmed Greggs and Roper Technologies after earnings, with Roper raising guidance and Greggs reporting 7.2% revenue growth…

ROP $49BZTS $37B
D Invests 1 click

Deep Dive: Equifax ($EFX)

Equifax’s Workforce Solutions generated $2.58B in 2025 at more than 50% EBITDA margins, anchored by Work Number.

EFX $23B
Rebound Capital 1 click

Genius Sports (GENI)

Genius Sports’ $1.2 billion Legend acquisition adds direct bettor monetization, while its exclusive NFL data rights could supply prediction…

GENI $1.7BSRAD $15B
Sylence Capital 1 click

Floor & Decor: 2Q26 Business Update

Floor & Decor’s same-store sales improved to minus 2%, while $45 million of tariff refunds lifted second-quarter gross profit and operating…

FND $5B
Speedwell Memos 8 clicks

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