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Tuesday, November 10, 2026

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Insider activity October 2026

Asian insider buying reached $2.9 billion in October, the highest since 2018, with South Korea and Thailand leading. The report highlights Bank Rakyat Indonesia among five purchases.

BKRKY $23B
Asian Century Stocks 1 click

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

From $3.83/share, you’re risking a $1.62 loss (-42.3%) on TOYO Co., Ltd $TOYO in my bear case for a $10.90 gain (+284.6%) in my bull case. I apply 2.0-4.0x EBITDA, well below First Solar $FSLR’s 6.7x, for the trade and governance risks. At the 3.0x midpoint, today’s $137.2M EV implies $TOYO earns just $45.7M/year, 29.2% of its TTM figure. How much of the $156.4M of TTM EBITDA lasts depends on Commerce, U.S. customs (CBP), and $TOYO’s Section 232 term sheet (its request for relief from the new 15% tariff on imported cells). Each case values $TOYO at the end of 2027 on that year’s EBITDA, since 2027 is the first full year under the new tariff and Commerce’s final determination is due ~May 13, 2027. I leave out the 45X tax credits, which $TOYO also leaves out of its forecasts, and the HJT cell plant it plans in Texas, which won’t produce before 2028. Each case adds today’s $26.4M of net cash to 2027 EBITDA times the multiple and divides by 42.7M shares. Bear Case ($2.21, -42.3%) The bear case assumes Commerce’s preliminary determination (its first ruling, due ~December 14) covers Ethiopian cells without the certification path $TOYO asked for, CBP keeps detaining shipments, and Commerce doesn’t approve $TOYO’s Section 232 term sheet. That means Ethiopia’s cells stop reaching U.S. buyers in 2027, which implies 2027 EBITDA of $34.0M, what $TOYO earned in Q2 2026 alone. I apply a 2.0x multiple, under a third of First Solar’s 6.7x, for a value of $2.21/share. Base Case ($6.38, +66.6%) The base case assumes Commerce lets cells made with non-Chinese wafers through by its May 2027 final determination, but CBP’s reviews and the inquiry keep Ethiopia’s U.S. sales below their H1 2026 pace until then. That implies 2027 EBITDA of $82.1M, the same as H1 2026 alone, or 52.5% of the TTM figure. I apply a 3.0x multiple, under half of First Solar’s 6.7x, for a value of $6.38/share. Bull Case ($14.73, +284.6%) The bull case assumes Commerce’s preliminary determination clears cells made with non-Chinese wafers, CBP releases $TOYO’s shipments, and Commerce approves its Section 232 term sheet, so Ethiopia’s cells reach U.S. buyers at the H2 2025-H1 2026 pace again. That implies 2027 EBITDA of $156.4M, equal to the TTM figure. I apply a 4.0x multiple, still well below First Solar’s 6.7x, for a value of $14.73/share after the warrants are exercised.
@StableBread 1 click

Fajasy on X

Ambarella $AMBA trades below my bear case, and below where it was before the Financial Times reported takeover talks. In my September 9 update on the edge AI chipmaker, my bear case was $72/share, 16.8% above its $61.67 close on November 2, and my base case $99, 60.5% above. Even the $57 case, where the multiple keeps compressing, is just 7.6% below. $AMBA is down 10.4% since that update, less than the 13.4% drop in the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX). Neither $AMBA nor NXP Semiconductors $NXPI, the Dutch auto chipmaker, has confirmed the takeover talks the Financial Times reported on July 31. But on October 30, traders citing a Betaville alert said $AMBA’s board had picked $NXPI for exclusive talks after weighing multiple offers. At $61.67, $AMBA trades below its $74.09 close before the FT report, so the stock isn’t pricing in much of a deal, and a bid would be upside none of my cases counts. The company carries no debt and has $272.3M of cash and securities as of July 31, against ~$18M/quarter of FCF burn in the first half of FY2027. That’s more than three years of runway, so it’s unlikely to need to sell stock. The dilution comes from stock comp instead, which ran at 21.9% of revenue over the last 12 months (too high for my liking) and lifted the share count 3.4% in a year. Memory shortages at its camera customers are the risk to Q4, and the Q3 report, which $AMBA hasn’t scheduled yet, will show whether customers are cutting orders.

Investor Letters

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Quick Value #337 - Dana Inc (DAN)

Dana is combining with Eaton’s Mobility unit via a 1Q27 Reverse Morris Trust after selling a division, delevering and accelerating buybacks.

DAN $2.1B
Value Don't Lie 2 clicks

STRL: 80 new electricians a week

Sterling’s $4.1 billion backlog faces Texas permitting risk after a governor proposed a moratorium, while Connexion, Capital Asset Planning…

STRL $7.6B
Trade Ideas Flow 1 click

Roblox: Capture This Moment

Roblox’s Q3 FY26 DAUs fell year over year for the first time, while bookings declined 12% to $1.7 billion.

RBLX $35B
TSOH Investment Research 1 click

DoorDash and Google

DoorDash and Google.

DASH $79B
Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. 4 clicks

Vicor Update, Part Four

Vicor’s Federal Circuit hearing put Foxconn’s disputed patent license under pressure, reinforcing its AI server royalty model and licensing…

VICR $6.8B
CV's Substack 3 clicks
FND · long

FLOOR & DECOR HLDGS

Floor & Decor operates 281 warehouse-format stores selling hard-surface flooring and accessories nationwide.

FND $5B
Value Investors Club 1 click

Floor & Decor 3Q26: Business Update

Floor & Decor’s 3Q26 sales rose 3% while comparable sales fell 1.4%; it cut 2027 openings to 10-15 as high mortgage rates pressure…

FND $5B
Speedwell Memos 1 click

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