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Tuesday, November 10, 2026

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Research update

S&P Global research will assess Platts, Kensho and ratings growth; Benefit Systems’ 72% YTD rally changed its valuation, while Netflix and ICE remain research priorities.

ICE $96B
Global Outperformers 2 clicks

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

I turned Toast’s $TOST 2027 framework into an adjusted EBITDA estimate, to see what the restaurant software and payments company trades at on next year’s numbers. Incoming CFO Michael Senno will own the 2027 numbers, and he already set the frame on the Q3 call. He said he’s “confident in the 20%+ framework” for recurring gross profit growth (Q4 is guided to 22-24%), but expects “very modest margin progression next year” after a ~36% adjusted EBITDA margin in 2026, since $TOST wants room to keep investing in its newer markets. Those newer markets (enterprise, international, and retail) are nearing $200M of ARR and doubling for a second straight year, per CEO Aman Narang, and Senno said the core business already earns margins over 40%. At $34.67/share, $TOST’s enterprise value is $18.3B ($20.1B market cap on 581M shares, less $1.89B of cash and marketable securities, with no debt), or 21.6x 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance. In my August 10 update, I said I’d add if a pullback took $TOST down to the high teens on forward EV/EBITDA. On the 2026 guide, that’s ~$29/share, which the stock briefly touched at the start of October. Reading Senno’s “very modest margin progression” as a margin near 2026’s ~36%, 20% recurring gross profit growth would mean ~$1.0B of 2027 adjusted EBITDA. So on 2027 numbers, the stock already trades at ~18x, in the high teens.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Root $ROOT, the car insurer that prices drivers on how they actually drive, closed Friday at $43.37/share, down 24.1% in two days from $57.15 before its Q3 report, even though it earned $14.4M against a $5.4M loss a year ago. In my August 10 update, I said $ROOT was riding out the soft market (when large carriers cut prices and spend heavily to win customers) by protecting margins instead of buying growth, and Q3 showed exactly that trade-off. Premiums in force (the annualized premium on every active policy) fell 5.4% y/y, nearly double Q2’s 2.8% drop. Growth in policies offset the lower premium per policy through Q1, but policies were flat from June at 484,037 (+3.8% y/y) while premium per policy fell 8.9% to $1,441. Basically, this means that $ROOT’s customers are paying less on average, and Root’s customer count has barely moved since June, so the total it collects from customers each year is shrinking (down 5.4% from a year earlier, to $1.40B). CEO Alex Timm said larger carriers raised marketing and cut prices during the quarter, so $ROOT gave up direct-channel growth where returns fell below its targets. CFO Megan Binkley expects year-end policies in force to be “broadly in line with the third quarter.” But new business through partners and independent agents still rose 19% y/y and made up 52% of the total, up from 44% a year earlier. The quarter’s big partnership win was Carvana $CVNA, the online used-car seller, which renewed its embedded insurance deal (coverage sold with the car) on August 31. Timm said the program had sold “well over 250,000 policies” by then. Carvana’s new warrants for up to ~1.5M shares (~10% of the share count) vest on policy milestones through August 2028, so it only earns them by selling more Root policies. In October, $ROOT also launched a pilot with Hyundai, one of its existing partners. At 14 Phoenix-area dealerships, buyers who finance or lease a new Hyundai through Hyundai Capital America get six months of Root insurance free if they enroll and qualify. The pilot puts $ROOT in front of car buyers at the dealership, the way Carvana does online.

Investor Letters

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The AutoNation Story

AutoNation shed rentals and megastores, focused on dealerships, and retired 91.1% of its shares through buybacks after its 1990s roll-up…

AN $6.1B
Cannibal Stocks 1 click

No title

SpaceX’s $24 billion Starbase power plant, Microsoft’s Oracle capacity cuts, Riot’s $72 billion AI lease and Quanta’s sell-off frame…

PWR $77BRIOT $5.8B
Monte Independent Investment Research 1 click

Insider activity October 2026

Asian insider buying reached $2.9 billion in October, the highest since 2018, with South Korea and Thailand leading.

BKRKY $23B
Asian Century Stocks 1 click

Quick Value #337 - Dana Inc (DAN)

Dana is combining with Eaton’s Mobility unit via a 1Q27 Reverse Morris Trust after selling a division, delevering and accelerating buybacks.

DAN $2.1B
Value Don't Lie 2 clicks

STRL: 80 new electricians a week

Sterling’s $4.1 billion backlog faces Texas permitting risk after a governor proposed a moratorium, while Connexion, Capital Asset Planning…

STRL $7.6B
Trade Ideas Flow 1 click
CNR · long

Core Natural Resources INC

Core Natural Resources is a US metallurgical and thermal coal producer formed in January 2025 through the merger of CONSOL Energy and Arch…

CNR $3.9B
Value Investors Club 1 click

MercadoLibre: Valuation Model

MercadoLibre’s sum-of-the-parts model values commerce and payments on FCFF, credit on equity returns, producing a $1,980 base-case target…

MELI $77B
Hated Moats

U-Haul Bought at the Top

U-Haul’s pandemic-era fleet purchases at inflated prices now drive higher depreciation and disposal losses as truck and van prices…

UHAL $11B
scuttleblurb 2 clicks

PDD Supplemental

JD, Alibaba and Douyin are assessed for their competitive threat to PDD, with a specific investment stance on JD.

JD $39B
Bearstone 1 click

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