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Sunday, November 8, 2026

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@convequity

Convequity on X

In our view, distributors may have accumulated inventory because they expected shortages, and that inventory could add supply and pressure memory prices, though we have not verified the reports. Disk use in one of our agent environments has been heavy. That is evidence of storage demand. It tells us little about how much DRAM or HBM the models need while running. Existing suppliers and Chinese manufacturers are expanding production. Chinese manufacturers reportedly hold enough lithography machines for three to four years of expansion. Reports of large distributor inventories, which we have not verified, raise another risk: distributors could sell down stock accumulated in anticipation of shortages, adding supply and putting further pressure on prices. We hold $LRCX for manufacturing equipment, $RMBS for memory interfaces, and $SNDK for storage and high-bandwidth flash. These give us several ways to benefit from growing data demand without relying entirely on high memory prices.
@leevalueroach 1 click

Lee Roach on X

Monroe $MNRO is selling off on a weak Q2, down around 9% premarket. I think most of the market is reading the headline and missing what's buried in the new credit agreement. The Oct 23 refinancing with Ares ($250M term loan + $125M revolver, EX-10.23) runs well over 100 pages. Deep in the definitions is a "Permitted Change of Control" clause, and it's very specific: - One sale to a private-equity sponsor can happen without triggering a default - It must happen by Oct 23, 2027, a 12-month window - The sponsor needs $1.5B+ AUM, can't be on a disqualified-firm list that Ares and Monro pre-agreed, and must be in an approved jurisdiction - Pro forma lease-adjusted leverage must be 5.50x or less - Sponsor equity must be at least equal to all funded debt, including finance leases - Lenders get a 0.50% fee, and the sponsor can add back up to $2M/yr of management fees Lenders don't negotiate a provision this detailed (a named AUM floor, a pre-agreed blacklist, a fixed window) for a scenario nobody is considering. Meanwhile the board's strategic review, which includes a possible sale, has been open since May. None of this means a deal is coming. No transaction has been announced, and the same agreement also restricts the dividend and adds real interest cost. But headline-driven selling is pricing Monro as a standalone story. The credit agreement says the lenders are planning for a sale to PE and that deal is close.

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Post Q3 EVC Update

EVC's Q3 update cites $30 million for a single station, a broadcast-business sale and stronger positioning for 2027.

EVC $832M
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 23 clicks

Entravision Q3 Update

Entravision’s Q3 ad-tech revenue reached $177.2 million, up 133% year over year, while total revenue rose 88% to $226.3 million and diluted…

EVC $832M
The Value Road 4 clicks

GREAT DEC-TECTIVE WORK

Diversified Energy reported $255.6 million of “true” nine-month free cash flow, while its $1.8 billion Birch acquisition would shift…

DEC $900M
The Oak Bloke 3 clicks
TNLIF · long

Trainline PLC

Trainline’s buyback and high free-cash-flow yield support a long thesis.

TNLIF $903M
Value Investors Club 1 click

Problems at Twist Bioscience (TWST)

Twist Bioscience’s $200 rebound followed an Anthropic-linked short squeeze, yet its DNA and protein services face broad competition while…

TWST $8B
Hunterbrook 4 clicks

VSH Earnings Review

Vishay reported record Q3 revenue of $979 million, up 24%, and guided Q4 to about $990 million as rising backlog and margins contrast with…

VSH $3.6B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

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