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Sunday, November 8, 2026

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Vicor Update, Part Four

Vicor’s Federal Circuit hearing put Foxconn’s disputed patent license under pressure, reinforcing its AI server royalty model and licensing leverage.

VICR $6.8B
CV's Substack 1 click

From X

@convequity 1 click

Convequity on X

Software multiples have fallen further since our January report. As of 7 Oct 2026, 238 companies in our all-software watchlist have EV/Sales (NTM) data on Koyfin. The median is 3.1x, down from 3.7x in January. The average is 5.4x, down from 6.2x. The 25th percentile is 1.8x, down from 1.9x. The 75th percentile is 5.5x, down from 6.1x. 191 of the 238 (80%) trade below our 6.7x private equity floor. 113 trade below 3x. The Bessemer Cloud Index shows the same pattern. Its median is 4.7x, down from 5.1x in January. 46 of its 68 companies (68%) trade below 6.7x. The cheapest are $CXM at 0.9x, $SPT at 1.1x, $MNDY at 1.7x and $WIX at 1.8x. In our watchlist, only 21 companies trade above 10x. The most expensive are $PLTR at 44.5x, $CRWD at 42.4x, $NET at 38.6x, $PANW at 24.2x, $DDOG at 19.5x and $SNOW at 16.3x. Growth still earns a higher multiple. The 44 names expected to grow revenue 20%+ a year over 3 years have a median of 5.2x. The 85 names expected to grow under 10% have a median of 2.6x. Even for the faster growers, the 5.2x median is below the floor. The market is paying up for very few names. We think that is right. Many software companies have slowing growth, high costs and no clear AI strategy. We would not buy the sector, or a cloud index, on valuation alone. In software, we focus on the few companies rebuilding their products around AI, and our SaaS Survival Scorecard tests key SaaS names against the pressure from AI agents.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Markets often miss second order implications until it shows up in direct statements. - If $LITE is completely sold out... (largely due to $NVDA bottlenecking everyone else, eg. securing Greensboro capacity), where else do your other companies like $AMD / hyperscalers / etc. get their supply procurement? - $SIVE is coming online with like 1/6th of the world's current laser capacity by themselves. (100M+ cw dfb lasers vs. 608M EML/CW globally per Trendforce). Not even including their partner foundries that they're targeting 2:1 for. - $AAOI is coming online with a ton of capacity too next year enough to produce 400k ELSFP + $471m/month of transceivers. Then combine that with other supply chain statements like "Having 2-3 suppliers used to be the norm, now it is 5-7" from Lightcounting. So as long as your products actually work + can scale, it's hard to see anyone else with capacity not get qualified into your supply chains. Since optical component shortages are a massive bottleneck now.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Woooow... $LITE CEO went out on Bloomberg today and stated: Lumentum is "effectively sold out through nearly 2029". From our perspective, "Completely Sold Out, there's no end in sight". With demand visibility from hyperscalers that carries them out into 2030, 2031. The implications of these statements are enormous for photonics and remaining laser suppliers with capacity coming online like $SIVE, Sumitomo Electric, to $AAOI. What a crazy bottleneck that's unfolding.

Investor Letters

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Floor & Decor 3Q26: Business Update

Floor & Decor’s 3Q26 sales rose 3% while comparable sales fell 1.4%; it cut 2027 openings to 10-15 as high mortgage rates pressure…

FND $5B
Speedwell Memos 1 click

Post Q3 EVC Update

EVC's Q3 update cites $30 million for a single station, a broadcast-business sale and stronger positioning for 2027.

EVC $832M
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 23 clicks

Entravision Q3 Update

Entravision’s Q3 ad-tech revenue reached $177.2 million, up 133% year over year, while total revenue rose 88% to $226.3 million and diluted…

EVC $832M
The Value Road 4 clicks
MTMTY · short

Metlen Energy & Metals PLC

Metlen Energy & Metals faces a 40% short case centered on its overpriced aluminium, alumina and Greek power businesses.

MTMTY $6.8B
Value Investors Club

GREAT DEC-TECTIVE WORK

Diversified Energy reported $255.6 million of “true” nine-month free cash flow, while its $1.8 billion Birch acquisition would shift…

DEC $900M
The Oak Bloke 3 clicks

Problems at Twist Bioscience (TWST)

Twist Bioscience’s $200 rebound followed an Anthropic-linked short squeeze, yet its DNA and protein services face broad competition while…

TWST $8B
Hunterbrook 4 clicks

VSH Earnings Review

Vishay reported record Q3 revenue of $979 million, up 24%, and guided Q4 to about $990 million as rising backlog and margins contrast with…

VSH $3.6B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

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