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Sunday, November 8, 2026

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Vicor Update, Part Four

Vicor’s Federal Circuit hearing put Foxconn’s disputed patent license under pressure, reinforcing its AI server royalty model and licensing leverage.

VICR $6.8B
CV's Substack 1 click

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@StableBread 2 clicks

Fajasy on X

Here’s what Boost Run $BRUN has already committed to pay, and what it still has to finance in H2 2026. $BRUN’s GPUs need space and power, which it rents in other companies’ data centers (colocation). The four leases signed since April already cover the space and power for the year-end deployments, and CEO Andrew Karos said its partnerships now reach 253 MW of power. $BRUN owes the rent on those sites whether or not the GPUs get financed. In 2027, the commitments $BRUN has already signed call for ~$221M of payments, including $103.5M on its GPU leases, $28.9M of rent on the sites in use as of June 30, ~$69M on the four new leases, and $20M for software. $BRUN’s $191.8M of pro forma cash and $93.6M of contracted prepayments, $285.4M together, cover the ~$221M of 2027 payments before counting any monthly billings from customers. But the same cash also pays $BRUN’s share of the H2 2026 build, so its monthly billings will have to cover part of the 2027 payments. To reach the $1.0-1.2B of GPU spending management expects for 2026, $BRUN has to deploy $663-863M of GPU servers in H2 2026, 2.3-3.0x its cash and contracted prepayments. If lessors fund 79.5% of the H2 2026 build, as they did in H1 2026, $BRUN needs $527-686M of new leases, 2.2-2.9x the $238.1M the company owed on finance leases as of June 30. The other $136-176M would be paid in cash. The $527-686M works out to $264-343M/quarter on average across Q3 and Q4, 1.3-1.6x the $208.2M of leases $BRUN took on in Q2. $BRUN’s lease debt would rise by less than the $527-686M, since the company keeps paying down its leases while adding new ones. During H1 2026, its finance lease debt rose $207.7M on $337.3M of new GPU equipment, or 61.6%, which for H2 2026 would imply ~$410-530M more debt. New leases will likely cost more than ~7% after the rise in rates. For context, at the 9.0% $IREN agreed to pay on its August GPU financing, the extra interest on $527-686M would be ~$6.5-8.5M/year, 1.6-2.1% of the $400M ARR target. And $BRUN isn’t slowing down. By June 30, the company had already placed orders well above the $578M first-year minimum in its April 2026 agreement with Dell $DELL, which also requires at least $215.5M/year of Dell equipment from April 2027 to April 2031 or a payment for the shortfall.
@convequity

Convequity on X

Neoclouds Now Trade as a Hedge Against AI Demand Growth Convequity’s latest ABBX review shows $CRWV, $NBIS and $IREN are inversely correlated with AI demand growth. Stronger demand widens the working-capital hole and keeps investors risk-off, even as order books expand. Insatiable demand is usually the reason to own the supplier. Here it does the opposite. Jensen Huang told CNBC at GTC Berlin that neocloud demand is “off the charts” and that working capital is the missing piece. Working capital is current assets minus current liabilities. A cash-conversion mismatch squeezes it even when demand is huge. Liabilities hit first. A neocloud pays $NVDA and networking suppliers in roughly 30–60 days. Asset-backed hardware loans add heavy near-term debt service. Assets lag. A signed customer contract sits off the balance sheet as backlog. It only becomes receivables or cash once the cluster is deployed, energized and billed — months later. Cash leaves before revenue arrives. A faster pipeline simply widens the short-term deficit. Latest ABBX figures NBIS: $8.5B gross debt vs $8.0B cash; guidance for >$9B customer prepayments this year. IREN: $7.6B debt vs $5.9B cash; $13.8B hardware and site commitments; 20% prepay on the Microsoft contract. CRWV: $35.6B debt vs $5.5B cash, plus $16.3B operating leases and $35.5B rent not yet commenced. Build-out relies far more on debt than customer prepayments. Even with those prepayments, NBIS and IREN keep raising large extra funding. CRWV faces the same hole with a far larger debt stock. Handing contracts back to resell at higher spot prices would ease CRWV’s cash hole only if customers and lenders agreed. Customers pay even if they do not use the capacity, CRWV must deliver it, and we found no public right to change the price or exit early. Break a customer contract and the hardware lenders can lock up CRWV’s cash. If that lockup holds, they take the cash to repay the loan. Borrowing later would cost more, and the switch only pays while spot stays high. If spot fell, CRWV would lose both the committed revenue and the contract value backing those loans. For investors to turn risk-on again, AI demand growth needs to slow enough for infrastructure supply to catch up.

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Floor & Decor 3Q26: Business Update

Floor & Decor’s 3Q26 sales rose 3% while comparable sales fell 1.4%; it cut 2027 openings to 10-15 as high mortgage rates pressure…

FND $5B
Speedwell Memos 1 click
MTMTY · short

Metlen Energy & Metals PLC

Metlen Energy & Metals faces a 40% short case centered on its overpriced aluminium, alumina and Greek power businesses.

MTMTY $6.8B
Value Investors Club

Post Q3 EVC Update

EVC's Q3 update cites $30 million for a single station, a broadcast-business sale and stronger positioning for 2027.

EVC $832M
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 23 clicks

Entravision Q3 Update

Entravision’s Q3 ad-tech revenue reached $177.2 million, up 133% year over year, while total revenue rose 88% to $226.3 million and diluted…

EVC $832M
The Value Road 4 clicks

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