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Saturday, November 7, 2026

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@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$BLBD ~$60 Blue Bird makes the yellow school buses. It’s one of only three big US makers (vs Thomas Built and IC Bus) and the leader in propane and electric buses. Districts buy them with local budgets and state/federal grants, and keep them ~15 years. ~$2.1B market cap, ~0 net debt. ~8.5x FY26 EBITDA ($247M guide), ~6% FCF yield. The bear case was EV subsidies running out. A VIC short at $57 in Aug ‘25 said FY27 EBITDA would fall to $92M. 15 months later: 776 EVs still in backlog, ~14% margins, price per bus +5.7%. 8x flat EBITDA = ~$57, so today’s price assumes zero growth. You get for free: A full year of Micro Bird, its small-bus arm ($16.5M EBITDA in its first quarter owned) Ford F-53/F-59 chassis deal (the frame RVs and delivery vans are built on), $1.4B added TAM, production starts 2028 Risks: legacy units -4.6% YTD, dealers say EV grant activity has “whittled down,” FY27 estimates getting cut. Q4 + FY27 guide ~Nov 23.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

I'm going to give a contrarian take on Neoclouds like $NBIS and say the theme looks compelling after the valuation crash. Since there's a reason why Elon's $SPCX is heavily focused on this market full of "guppies" that would die: He sees how attractive the economics are after selling compute to $GOOGL and Anthropic. And this is reflected by his actions not words, from SpaceX's recent $40B financing for GPUs procurement. $AMZN, $MSFT, and even $META also see how profitable the economics are and are accelerating their AI DC buildouts. I'd argue if a Neocloud has: - Close relationships with $NVDA + others for allocations - Existing contracted capacity + permitting - Well funded counterparties, such as Hyperscalers. - Attractive economics, such as financing their procurement correctly (not the way $CRWV has with high debt interest unless they refinance). Then I think they'll do just fine... However, the bigger worry is more toward newer players starting financing or the permitting process, since barrier to entry has now become extremely high. For financing, read through on $IREN earnings has shown public Neoclouds can adapt extremely well to tight markets: As seen with their 90% prepayments for GPU capex on a 5Y deal. Their older H100 GPUs recontracted at double their previous pricing and 12% higher contracted pricing also point against depreciation fears. And in the case DC buildouts slow from permitting delays... it heavily favors some over others. Rosenblatt's recent note for example stated they see little risk with $NBIS primary buildout that was in Missouri, Pennsylvania, and South Carolina. And there's probably less risk with developers in places like Australia. Markets have also show this infinite compute arbitrage can't go on forever, hence the reluctance to further finance capex, via things like ATMs. But ironically, tighter financing and hypothetical restrictive permitting would increase the competitive advantage of established neoclouds. And create a larger moat against newer DC developers.

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Axon 3Q26 Business Update

Axon cut full-year guidance after delayed federal Dedrone contracts slowed 3Q revenue growth to 28%, while software and services grew 43%.

AXON $31B
Speedwell Memos 2 clicks
FOUR · long

Shift4 Payments INC

Shift4 Payments trades at roughly 5 times a $7.50 2029 free-cash-flow-per-share estimate after stock compensation.

FOUR $3.4B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

Dollar Tree: Weathering The Storm

Dollar Tree’s $1.25 opening price and multi-price assortment supported 10% two-year comparable-sales growth, outpacing Walmart U.S.

DLTR $26B
TSOH Investment Research 1 click

Vistra Deep Dive

Vistra's contracted nuclear fleet benefits from data centers' high, steady load factors, while Amazon and Meta contracts contribute roughly…

VST $40B
CV's Substack
BE 2026-08-29

Bloom Energy: 5 Links That Cannot Break

Bloom Energy’s 80x forward earnings valuation relies on concentrated megaprojects, sustained AI data-center power demand and continued…

BE $52B
Valuation Rewind 3 clicks

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